Archive for the ‘ Policy Memo ’ Category

Defense & Deficits: How to Trim the Pentagon’s Budget-Carefully

Friday, October 14th, 2011
Jim Arkedis



Jim Arkedis is the director of PPI's National Security Project.

by Jim Arkedis

Getting America’s exploding deficits and debt under control isn’t just an economic and political imperative, it’s also vital for U.S. national security. America’s military strength and leading role in international affairs rest on the foundation of a dynamic, growing economy. To the extent that runaway public debt undermines prospects for growth and compromises America’s economic sovereignty, it also endangers American security.

Let’s be clear at the outset: defense spending is not driving the fiscal crisis. True, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have contributed to the debt, but that’s because President Bush, in a break with wartime precedent, declined to raise taxes to pay for them. The good news is that as the overseas deployments wind down, future military spending is set to naturally shrink.

The structural causes of America’s escalating national debt are the unsustainable cost growth of federal entitlements—Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid—and historically low tax revenues (which reflect both subpar economic growth and the Bush tax cuts). But it has become apparent that as America’s political leaders shirk tackling tax and entitlement reform, the burden of debt reduction threatens to fall disproportionately on domestic discretionary spending, including defense.

The first shoe has already dropped. On August 2, President Obama and Congressional Republicans struck a deal that would cut spending by $2.1 trillion over ten years in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Among other cuts, the compromise takes an initial bite of $350 billion from defense spending. The deal also created a Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction or “supercommittee” to come up with an additional $1.2 to $1.5 trillion in federal savings by the end of the year.

If the committee fails, it will trigger a “sequester” that automatically cuts domestic and defense spending across the board. That could mean an additional $500 billion—if not more—cut from the military.

All told, defense spending could be reduced from $850 billion to $1 trillion over the next decade. Cuts of this magnitude are simply too large. They would jeopardize America’s ability to successfully conclude the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, conduct global counterterrorism operations, and hedge against the rise of new threats—both state and non-state actors—to U.S. security and international order. Absent corresponding reductions in America’s global commitments, such large cuts portend exactly what Walter Lippman warned against—foreign policy “insolvency,” in the sense that America’s commitments far exceed its means.

Nor would deep cuts in national defense solve the country’s fiscal problems. America’s national debt now exceeds $14 trillion and is growing rapidly. Since 2004, it has zoomed from 40 percent to about 70 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and is on course to exceed 100 percent in the coming decade. There is wide agreement among fiscal experts that policymakers need to cut at least $4 trillion over ten years just to stabilize the debt at 60 percent of GDP. So even if the new “supercommittee” succeeds in cutting $2.1 trillion, there’s still a long way to go.

Yet the Pentagon should not escape scrutiny, either. The fiscal task before the country is monumental, and President Obama has rightly called for “shared sacrifice” in crafting a bipartisan solution. This means everything—entitlements, tax revenues, domestic spending and defense—must be on the table.

The military must contribute its fair share to deficit reduction, but it must not be made to pay for America’s leaders’ inability to grapple with the country’s fundamental fiscal challenges. Beyond marginal adjustments, the basic level of defense spending should be set by America’s strategic needs, not by a game of fiscal chicken.

Moreover, how defense spending is cut matters almost as much as the cut’s size. Across-the-board caps or freezes—as proposed by some leading bipartisan groups—are convenient for political budget cutters, but they are a bad way to wring savings out of national defense. The fact is that not all Pentagon programs are created equally: To en- sure that reductions in the military’s budget don’t disrupt current missions or impair the U.S. mili- tary’s ability to sustain qualitative technological superiority over the long term, policy makers need to make strategic trade-offs among competing security priorities.

That’s because while keeping Americans safe is the federal government’s first responsibility, America’s military power also underpins its diplomacy and anchors strategic alliances in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. The military cements America’s position of world leadership, which rests on the United States’ will and capacity to defend liberal democratic values and strengthen global institutions for collective problem solving. I see no evidence that the American people are clamoring for a retreat from these responsibilities.

For all these reasons, heedless cuts in military spending have no place in a progressive strategy for restoring fiscal discipline. In this Policy Brief, I offer pragmatic answers to these questions:
The post-Cold War benchmark of three percent of GDP constitutes a floor beneath which defense spending should not be allowed to sink. This decade, a range of 3.0–3.5 of GDP is more realistic. This suggests that the military’s budget should be cut by no more than $600–650 billion—or about 10 percent—by 2021.

How much should the Pentagon contribute to defense spending reductions?
And how do policymakers realize these savings?

I answer those questions by examining defense spending in an historic and current budget context, break down Pentagon spending by category, distinguish between one-off war spending and on-going military missions, and contrast spending proposals from the political left, right and center. I conclude with a series of strategic guidelines for how much and where to trim the defense budget.

Based on this analysis, I believe military spending can safely be reduced over the next decade towards the “post-Cold War benchmark” achieved in the late 1990s: After a series of exhaustive strategic re- views, military spending slowly declined through- out the decade and eventually settled at around three percent of GDP by 1998. During peacetime and absent a major nation-state military competi- tor, this range was deemed sufficient to handle two regional conflicts while maintaining the U.S. military’s high-tech edge and global reach.

Of course, this formula cannot be applied mechanistically because the United States is not at peace and faces a different slate of threats than in the 1990s. Therefore, budgeteers must build in some leeway above three percent of GDP to accommo- date the following realities: America must con- clude the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; maintain a vigorous, global counterterrorism campaign; assure its qualitative military superiority over po- tential rivals, such as China; continue to invest robustly in advanced technology; and be prepared for unanticipated contingencies.

That’s why the post-Cold War benchmark of three percent of GDP constitutes a floor beneath which defense spending should not be allowed to sink. This decade, a range of 3.0–3.5 of GDP is more realistic. This suggests that the military’s budget should be cut by no more than $600–650 billion— or about 10 percent—by 2021.

In achieving these savings, policymakers should be guided by five rules:
1. Don’t let fiscal politics trump U.S. strategy.
2. Cut over time.
3. Focus on personnel costs.
4. Avoid radical surgery to military procurement and research & development.
5. Set a floor beneath defense cuts.

Read the entire memo.

Natural Gas Reconsidered

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011
Roger Cooper



Roger Cooper is currently the principal of Cleveland Park Policy Consulting.

by Roger Cooper

During the past few years, the United States has received an unexpected energy windfall: put simply, we have a lot more natural gas than we previously thought. This realization is altering America’s energy future in a fundamental way. For many years, the conventional wisdom was that natural gas would play an important role as a bridge fuel but then fade away as the U.S. and the world turned to renewable sources of energy later in the 21st century.

Recent discoveries of enormous gas reserves in the United States offer a very different vision for the future of natural gas. Expanding domestic production will resolve the primary issue that is presently keeping natural gas from becoming the dominant energy resource in the U.S.: the inadequacy of supplies to guarantee long-term availability at reasonable and predictable prices. Yet a recent report by the MIT Energy Initiative estimates that U.S. reservoirs may contain enough natural gas to meet demand for 90 to 100 years at current consumption levels with much less price volatility.

New technology enabling the extraction of natural gas from shale has been called the most significant energy innovation this century; this discovery has spurred the expansion of U.S. natural gas production. Technology developed primarily in the United States has made the dramatic expansion of U.S. natural gas resources possible. Further technical improvements may enable an even larger expansion of our natural gas resources. ExxonMobil, a company nearly synonymous with oil, now predicts that natural gas will be the fastest growing major fuel source worldwide through 2030. Clearly, something very significant has happened in the world of energy.

Read the entire policy brief here.

Less is More: The Modified Zero Plan for Tax Reform

Tuesday, April 12th, 2011
Paul Weinstein



Paul Weinstein Jr. is an eight-year veteran of the Clinton Administration and served as senior advisor to the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. He is currently a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, an adviser to the Bowles-Simpson Moment of Truth project, and lectures at the Johns Hopkins University.

Marc Goldwein



Marc Goldwein is the policy director of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and served as associate director of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform.

by Paul Weinstein and Marc Goldwein

Read the Policy Memo

As the ideological battles between the House Republicans and the President over discretionary spending continue to dominate news headlines, the real progress toward defusing America’s debt crisis is occurring more quietly in the Senate. There, a bipartisan group known as the “Gang of Six” has rallied behind the balanced blueprint produced by the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (Fiscal Commission).

Originally derided by some on the left and right when it issued its December 1, 2010 plan, the Fiscal Commission plan has become the only bipartisan game in town when it comes to deficit reduction. In March, 64 Senators (32 Democrats and 32 Republicans) called on the President to support a broad approach for addressing deficit problem and stated that the Fiscal Commission’s “work represents an important foundation to achieve meaningful progress on our debt.” Shortly thereafter, ten former heads of the Council of Economic Advisers, both Republicans and Democrats, co-signed a public statement urging that the Fiscal Commission’s report “be the starting point of an active legislative process that involves intense negotiations between both parties.”

The Fiscal Commission plan includes something for everyone to dislike, but along with a real plan to cut the deficit, the proposal includes a number of reforms that break through the partisan logjam that has plagued Washington in recent years. One such reform is the Fiscal Commission’s tax reform plan, which despite reflexive opposition from conservative anti-tax groups was supported by all three Senate Republicans on the Commission.

Read the Policy Memo

Homeownership Vouchers: A Plan to Reinvigorate the Economy While Helping Low-Income Families

Tuesday, March 1st, 2011
Robert Lerman



Robert I. Lerman is a professor of economics at American University and Institute Fellow at Urban Institute. He has published widely on economic and social policy issues, including the potential for expanding apprenticeship in the U.S. and the interactions between family structure and labor market outcomes.

by Robert Lerman

Read the Policy Memo

While easy monetary policy and a large fiscal stimulus have limited the economic downturn and helped generate modest growth, few believe the economy can grow fast enough to reduce unemployment without the recovery of the housing sector. Yet, no such recovery is in sight. As of late December 2010, the headline story was “Housing Recovery Stalls: Fresh Fall in Home Prices is Headwind for Economy.”1 Construction output remains 30 percent below pre-recession levels and is no higher today than it was a year ago (about 30 percent of all lost jobs were in the construction industry). The unemployment rate among construction workers is about 19 percent, double the national average. There are still 7 million homes in foreclosure or with mortgages that are 90 days delinquent. House prices continue to stagnate.

So far, federal initiatives aimed at shoring up the housing sector have cost tens of billions of dollars but have been ineffective and poorly targeted. The tax credit for homebuyers may have sped up some home purchases, but it did so at a high cost and with benefits flowing to many high-income families. It subsidized purchases that would have taken place without the credit, resulting in a cost to the taxpayer of $43,000 per new home purchased and a total budget cost of $15-20 billion, which was twice as much as Congress expected. President Obama’s Homeowner Affordability and Stability plan has reached only a small percentage of eligible homeowners.

The potential benefits of increasing the demand for owner-occupied housing are enormous. A rise in home prices would reduce the number of homeowners who find their homes worth far less than their mortgages. It would discourage these “underwater” homeowners from walking away from their mortgages; allow more families to refinance at low interest rates, thereby reducing the rate of foreclosures; and, ultimately, it would generate new construction jobs and spur associated job growth. Increased home values also can play an indirect role in job creation, since more small business owners would again be able to use their home as collateral for loans to maintain and expand their business.

Read the Policy Memo

Getting America Moving Again

Monday, February 7th, 2011
The Progressive Policy Institute





by The Progressive Policy Institute

The following document was originally released on January 21, 2011

read this document in .pdf format

To: President Barack Obama

From: The Progressive Policy Institute

Re: Getting America Moving Again

As you prepare for the State of the Union address, you are no doubt focused on the generational challenges that this nation faces.

A decade of war, self-inflicted economic wounds, and political deadlock has taken a toll on Americans’ legendary optimism: only one in seven believe their children will have a better life than theirs; most erroneously think that China already has surpassed the United States as the world’s leading economic power; and many fear that a looming deficit crisis will smother our economy in debt while putting us deeper in hock to foreign creditors.

Even if these worries are exaggerated, the underlying trends are real enough. Our country is slipping behind in global competition, as once-mighty U.S. banks and auto-makers falter, and others take the lead in emerging markets for clean energy and high speed rail. Our economy is not yet generating enough good jobs to drive unemployment down to normal levels or keep inequality from growing worse. Our government’s debts are exploding, even as we need to invest more in modernizing our antiquated public infrastructure. Our schools are failing to prepare too many young Americans to meet the new standards for competitive success.

We have no doubt that the American people are ready to do their part. The question is whether U.S. political leaders are willing to do theirs. The hyper-partisanship on display these days in Washington is more than discouraging – it suggests a political class whose idea of problem-solving is to blame the other party for everything that’s gone wrong.

Mr. President, you have a real opportunity here to rise above partisanship, and to rally a restive country behind the bold and difficult steps required to spark a national economic resurgence.

Your message should be simple: it’s time to get America moving again. It’s time to champion big ideas that can move us past the partisan deadlock, and towards a more prosperous future.

In this memo, the Progressive Policy Institute outlines 10 big ideas, grounded in a spirit of radical pragmatism, for rebuilding America’s economic strength.

1. Removing Obstacles to Growth: A Regulatory Improvement Commission

Innovation is America’s biggest comparative advantage in global competition and the best hope we have for driving sustainable job growth. As you recognized in this month’s executive order, one source of inadvertent obstruction is the dead weight of accumulated regulations, which slows innovation and prevents the economy from reaching its full potential.

Your executive order was a positive step toward a healthier, more dynamic environment for innovation in the U.S., but we believe that goal requires a more direct and results-driven approach. We advocate a review process that looks broadly at the full patchwork of regulations and draws on many perspectives from outside government, rather than relying on the agencies themselves to look critically at their own regulations in isolation.

We propose a periodic review process conducted by a Regulatory Improvement Commission, modeled loosely on the BRAC Commissions for military base closures. This Commission would take a principled approach to evaluating and pruning existing regulations, solicit balanced input from all stakeholders (not just industry groups or agencies themselves), and do so in a manner that ensures we protect public health, safety, and the environment.

Once appointed, each Commission will have a limited time and budget to complete its work. After agreeing on a package of regulations to eliminate or simplify, the Commission will send it to Congress for a fast-track, up-or-down vote without amendments or filibusters. This bill would then require your signature for the changes to take effect.

If we are to maintain trust and confidence in our regulatory system, it’s essential that we have a process by which the government can periodically be held accountable for its regulations by the people and businesses subject to them.  This will ensure not only that our private-sector economy remains vibrant and healthy, but that our public sector does as well.

2. Internal National Building: A National Infrastructure Bank

After decades of wasteful spending that too often directed taxpayer dollars to Congressional pork projects while neglecting to invest in our most critical infrastructure, states and local governments are now confronting massive rebuilding challenges they can no longer avoid.

We need to think more strategically about prioritizing infrastructure projects that have significant national and regional benefits. And we need smart, innovative financing solutions that enable us to restore the backbone of our economy.

A well-structured National Infrastructure Bank can play this role by leveraging public dollars with the participation of private-sector investors, as we have seen in Europe and in several states here in America as well.

You should ask Congress to provide the start-up capital this year for a publicly-owned, independent Bank focused on lending for projects that produce real economic returns. Doing so means the Bank could generate enough returns to pay for itself over time, and it won’t require continued support from the federal budget every year.

It’s a great deal for taxpayers, and for state and local governments who will benefit from lower borrowing costs for new projects.  It’s also a solid way to help create thousands of productive jobs and billions in new investments – involving private investors who can tap into the $2 trillion in cash that corporations are now keeping on the sidelines.  And it sends a clear signal that your administration has shifted away from short-term, sugar-high stimulus toward a longer-term economic strategy focused on investment for sustainable private-sector job growth.

3. A Way to Pay for High-Speed Rail

The most recent transportation reauthorization bill in Congress ended up in the same state as our transportation system itself: overextended, underfunded, and suffering from a prolonged lack of public attention.  Given the country’s pressing infrastructure needs and the economic benefits of modernizing transportation, it’s time to make this bill a priority and to use it as an opportunity to reshape the administration’s spending plans for high-speed rail (HSR).

Now is the time to prioritize the high-speed rail initiative by concentrating public resources on a small number of strategic, viable projects that already have participation from private investors, and to identify a stable, long-term source of funding for those projects.

We propose restructuring the Highway Trust Fund into a Surface Transportation Trust Fund that recaptures its original mission—to build and maintain an efficient national transportation network—and updates that mission to reflect 21st-century priorities, including upgrades to our passenger and freight rail systems.  Instead of continuing to throw $50 billion a year into our current pork-laden Trust Fund, we must create a results-oriented transportation fund that can move viable HSR projects forward and provide seed money for public-private partnerships.  Congress could easily allot $5 billion a year for HSR construction – without an increase in the gas tax – by cutting out earmarks and formula-based grants that now soak up billions of dollars. While this amount would not be enough to fund an ambitious, full-scale national HSR system, it would go a long way toward making smart projects a reality in the Northeast Corridor, Florida, and California.

4. Restoring Fiscal Discipline in Washington

The national debt is on course to reach 90 percent of GDP by the end of the decade. This is economically and politically unsustainable. Restoring fiscal discipline in Washington is integral to America’s economic comeback.

Some urge you to give priority to economic growth over deficit reduction. We are glad you have rejected this false choice. Fiscal restraint is a crucial ingredient of a new growth strategy. It will yield a bigger U.S. economy, as Americans divert less of their savings from interest payments to productive investment. It will boost investor confidence in the essential soundness of the U.S. economy. And it will safeguard America’s economic sovereignty by reducing our reliance on foreign lenders.

If restoring fiscal discipline is sound economics, it’s also sound ethics. This is particularly true of the independent and moderate voters progressives need to reach. To them, big deficits stand as a symbol of an insular and irresponsible political class that misspends the people’s money to entrench itself in power.

For all these reasons, we urge you to include in your State of the Union Address a credible plan for long-term deficit reduction. Following the general contours of your Fiscal Commission’s proposals, such a plan should include these key steps:

  • Radically prune tax expenditures, which are nothing more than backdoor spending through the tax code. These subsidies, totaling over $1.1 trillion a year, are popular, but many of them are outdated, inefficient, or regressive. Scaling them back would allow us to narrow budget deficits and lower individual and corporate tax rates.
  • Restore budget discipline by capping domestic spending, including for defense, and adhering to strict PAYGO rules that demand offsets for all new spending or tax cuts. These measures would take effect next year, and can be adjusted if economic demand remains weak and unemployment high.
  • In addition to the cuts Defense Secretary Gates has proposed, the Pentagon can contribute to restoring the fiscal stability by eliminating supplemental spending bills, which have been used to evade normal budget controls. Combining future appropriations into one defense budget per year would effectively represent a hard cap on cost growth and force appropriators to make hard choices that prioritize battlefield needs.
  • Slow mandatory spending. The unsustainable growth of public health and retirement costs is driving America’s long-term fiscal dilemmas.  We believe the progressive way to get automatic entitlement spending under control is to trim benefits for affluent future retirees, rather than raises taxes on working families.  PPI also proposes a health care budget which would oblige Congress to periodically reconcile spending and revenue for public health programs.

5. Setting National Targets: A Balanced Energy Portfolio

After the failure by Congress to pass comprehensive energy and climate legislation last year, U.S. energy policy has been left adrift, with no clear direction or vision for how we are going to meet our growing energy needs.  As a starting point for defining that vision, the country needs some idea of what our target should be for an energy mix that will best serve our nation’s interests over the next three decades.  Such a framework will guide specific trade-offs and policy choices, and allow us to mark progress on the way to a clean energy economy.

Specifically, PPI proposes a national Balanced Energy Portfolio with a target fuel mix allocated into thirds by 2040: one third of our electricity generated by renewable resources, one third by nuclear power, and one third from traditional fossil fuels. This approach recognizes that while our use of clean energy must be dramatically increased, the promise of renewable energy technologies has not yet reached the potential for wholesale replacement of other energy sources in the next 30 years. So for now we must focus on managing our current resources and technologies to move us closer to ensuring both sustainable economic growth and responsible environmental stewardship.

By setting these realistic goalposts with a Balanced Energy Portfolio, we can have an honest debate about our energy future and focus on the specific policies necessary to make this vision a reality.  This approach complements but does not replace other proposals such as carbon pricing or adoption of Clean Energy Standards, which set minimum thresholds for states and utilities to use low-carbon generation sources like wind, solar, nuclear, clean-coal technology, along with credits for efficiency measures and new natural gas resources used to replace aging coal plants. And since any realistic plan to reduce greenhouse emissions during this period must include strong support for nuclear power, we call on Congress and the administration to speed the review of applications for new reactors and resolve inter-agency disputes and funding uncertainties for nuclear loan guarantees.

6. Greening the Pentagon: An Energy Security Innovation Fund

Necessity is the mother of invention, and our armed forces have made it clear that the need for energy innovation has become a critical national security priority.  The military is already “greening” because it can’t afford to rely exclusively on fossil fuels, whose transportation to the war zone is long, dangerous and expensive. This past year, for example, the US Navy flew an F-18A Super Hornet on nothing but domestically-produced biofuels.  But there’s a real problem for other worthy green fuel products—they often lack the capital necessary to get from the test-lab to the battlefield, and maybe beyond.

We need an Energy Security Innovation Fund, housed in the Pentagon, to help companies bridge the gap. Such a fund would leverage public dollars with private money to support research and deployment of the most promising green products.  The most successful could be transferred to the public market, just like radar, GPS, and the Internet, all of which began life as military products. This would follow the lead of CIA’s In-Q-Tel, program, which began in 1999 to help small companies develop technologies for the intelligence community. For a relatively paltry $50 million a year, In-Q-Tel has spawned $1.4 billion in innovative products for the CIA.

7. Bringing Public Education into the 21st Century

We are strong supporters of your school reform agenda, which incorporates many innovations PPI has long championed: public charter schools, early learning, performance pay for teachers, and a commitment that the federal government stop funding failure and instead demand real accountability for results. Nonetheless, we urge you to take even bolder steps to speed the pace of school innovation and improvement. Our country cannot be satisfied with the persistence of large achievement gaps between white and minority students, or our students’ mediocre performance on international tests.

America’s standard school model—whose roots lie in the late 19th century—is obsolete. We need to replace it with a 21st century school system organized around two principles: high, common standards benchmarked to those of our fiercest competitors; and individualized learning enabled by digital media and online-instruction. Here are several ways your administration could accelerate the radical innovations we need to transform, not just reform, our public schools:

  • Encourage exponential growth of high-performing charter schools, to expand high quality options for disadvantaged youth. We urge you to endorse Rep. Jared Polis’s “All Star” proposal, which would offer competitive grants to states that want to scale up proven charter management organizations. Your administration also could fund pilot projects in the states that enhance funding for the best charters, giving them the means to expand and grow.
  • End tenure as we know it. Your Race to the Top initiative gives states incentives to link teacher pay to classroom performance, and to include student growth as a factor in teacher evaluations. It’s time to go a step further and reward efforts to abolish the old tenure system. It shields incompetent teachers from accountability, discourages talented people from entering the profession, and keeps teachers from achieving the professional status they deserve.
  • Spur a national network of Innovation Zones. Last year, New York City created the first such zone to produce at least 100 schools based on dramatically new approaches to instruction. Many are experimenting with new school designs that use cutting edge technology to customize instruction for different learning styles. Your administration should give other states or localities incentives to push the envelop of innovation in public schools.
  • Create a Digital Teacher Corps. Efforts to use digital tools and social media to develop new and more individualized approaches to learning are in their infancy. A key reason is that education training programs don’t teach teachers how to use them. We commend an idea from the Joan Ganz Cooney Center at Sesame Studios: establish a national Digital Teachers Corps to train teachers is the use of digital tools to customize student learning.

8. Lifting Housing Markets: One Million Homeowner Vouchers

Many economists believe that a sluggish housing sector continues to hold back our economic recovery. So far, federal initiatives to shore up the housing sector, costing tens of billions of dollars, have been ineffective and ill-targeted.

An innovative way to jump-start the housing market would be for the federal government to provide a million vouchers that allow low-income renters to become homeowners. We should also allow some of the two million holders of rental vouchers to convert them into homeownership vouchers.

Because the plan would substantially increase the demand for owner-occupied dwellings, inventories of unsold homes would decline and prices would rise in many markets. The net costs of the initiative (about $2.5 billion, according to Urban Institute economist Robert Lerman) would be less than funding an equivalent number of rental vouchers at current levels, since the carrying costs are substantially lower than the fair market rent in most areas.

The homeownership voucher proposal would speed up demand for owner-occupied housing, while reducing the housing burdens on a large number of low-income families.

9. Align Innovation and Immigration

America’s ability to compete for high-wage jobs in a fiercely competitive world increasingly depends on a high-skilled workforce capable of ceaseless innovation. We particularly need more workers with high-order technical skills, or what we call “knowledge capital”. While comprehensive immigration reform may be a bridge too far in 2011, less sweeping changes can help the United States fill its need. Specifically, we urge two reforms:

  • First, we need to make it easier for foreign students who receive advanced degrees from U.S. institutions in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) to stay in the U.S. and join the workforce. Our current immigration system makes it unnecessarily difficult for STEM advanced-degree graduates who are here legally to gain employment. Those students have to compete with foreign-educated and more experienced workers for only 65,000 H1-B visas and 80,000 priority worker and advanced-degree green cards issued every year. By stapling a green card – granting lawful permanent residence – to every foreign student’s post-graduate STEM degree diploma, we can encourage capable young immigrants to establish U.S. citizenship and contribute their skills to our knowledge economy.
  • Second, we should offer an expedited pathway to citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants who go to college or engage in meaningful national service. Every year up to 65,000 undocumented children graduate high school. While it’s not illegal for them to attend college, universities and colleges have given new scrutiny to immigration status in the wake of 9/11, which has had a chilling effect on undocumented immigrants’ enrollment. We salute you for fighting last year to pass the DREAM Act. We hope you will propose similar legislation this year to grant conditional permanent-resident status to undocumented immigrants who entered the U.S. before their 16th birthday, lived here for at least five years, are of good moral character, and either graduated from high school or attained admission to college.

10. Taking Power from Special Interests: A Fair Way to Finance Elections

A major obstacle to enacting any of the progressive reforms offered here is our current state of political paralysis. Instead of a search for common ground upon which reasonable compromises can be forged, politics has degenerated into a zero-sum shouting match in which each side attempts not just to defeat their opponents, but to delegitimate them.

On both sides, ideologues lay down gauntlets of purity tests that few moderates can survive, and special interests threaten scorched-earth responses should they not get their favored outcomes. This means that while calls for political civility, compromise, and tolerance are important, we must also tackle the structural roots of our dysfunctional national politics.

As long as congressional campaigns are privately funded, and as long as the big donations come primarily from ideologues and special interests, pragmatic candidates are going to have a tough time raising the resources they need to get started, and a difficult time winning in all-important low-turnout primaries.

Like you, Mr. President, we support a hybrid Fair Elections system introduced by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) to allow federal candidates to choose to run for office without relying on large contributions by using federal money to match small donations. Such a funding system has already been proven successful in seven states and more than a dozen cities. We urge you to give this reform the presidential push it needs.

The Bottom line

Last year’s elections showed once again that voters are deeply frustrated by the failure of either party to rise above partisanship and put their country’s interests first. That’s why many independent and moderate voters have restlessly switched back and forth between the parties. They keep searching for some political configuration that will break the partisan impasse in Washington, reverse our economic slide, and keep the American dream alive for their children.

This hunger for purposeful action creates a fresh opportunity for you to govern in a post-partisan way that taps into the great can-do spirit of American pragmatism. More than anything else, Americans need an economic success story we can believe in. We believe these ideas are part of that story.

Reviving Jobs and Innovation: A Progressive Approach to Improving Regulation

Thursday, February 3rd, 2011
Michael Mandel



Michael Mandel is the chief economic strategist at the Progressive Policy Institute and the founder of Visible Economy LLC, a New York-based news and education company.

by Michael Mandel

Download the entire memo

Today, the U.S. is suffering from a regulatory paradox: Too few and too many regulations at the same time. On the one hand, financial services were clearly under-regulated during the 2000s, making financial reform essential. Similarly, President Obama’s healthcare reform bill was a key first step to reining in medical costs.

But in other areas we see an accumulation of rules and regulations over the past decade. The trend started with the vast expansion of homeland security regulation under the Bush administration and continued through the first two years of the Obama administration.

That’s why President Obama should be applauded for issuing his executive order “Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review” on January 18. The order asked agencies to pay more attention to promoting innovation as part of the regulatory process. In addition, agencies were directed to come up with a plan for reviewing their existing significant regulations.

However, the president’s executive order did not go far enough. A regulatory ‘self-review’ process has been tried repeatedly in the past, and it’s always fallen far short of expectations. Regulators have a tough time trimming their own regulations, given internal bureaucratic pressures. But don’t blame the agencies—neither Congress nor the executive branch has a good way of reviewing and reforming existing regulations, even when they have become outdated or burdensome.

The regulatory system needs a mechanism to address this need for periodic review. We propose a Regulatory Improvement Commission (RIC), an independent body analogous to the BRAC Commissions for evaluating military base closures. This is designed to build on the president’s executive order, and in the process improve its effectiveness. The RIC will take a principled approach to evaluating and pruning existing regulations, gather input from all stakeholders (not just business or just agencies), and do so in a manner that ensures we protect public health, safety, and the environment.

Download the entire memo

China’s Growing Naval Power

Tuesday, December 14th, 2010
Michael Chase



Michael S. Chase is an associate professor in the Strategy and Policy Department at the U.S. Naval War College and a fellow with the Truman National Security Project. The views expressed here are his own.

by Michael Chase

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It’s clear that China’s Navy is growing in size and quality. Not only does China have the largest navy in East Asia, it has an increasingly modern and capable force of imported and indigenously produced destroyers, frigates, missile patrol craft, and submarines. Beijing is even planning to deploy its own aircraft carriers, a development sure to alarm neighbors such as Japan, Vietnam, and India.

But what does it mean for American policy makers? Should the United States increase its own maritime power in response to Beijing’s growing strength? Are there diplomatic levers that Washington might pull to forestall potential Chinese aggression? Below, I explore these issues, first by giving a brief history of China’s evolving naval strategies since the People’s Republic began in 1949. (It’s critical that U.S. policy makers understand the evolution of China’s thinking about the roles and missions of its navy.) Then, I provide a full accounting of recent Chinese naval hardware developments. Finally, I draw policy recommendations designed to help American policy makers manage the challenges that have arisen as a result of China’s improving capabilities, regional assertiveness and expanding global interests.

In short, the U.S. will need to strengthen its ties to key countries in East Asia and develop strategic and tactical military concepts and capabilities that would allow it to counter China’s growing military power. Meanwhile, U.S. policy makers must seek collaboration with the Chinese military in an effort to highlight the benefits of being a global stakeholder to Beijing.

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Efficiency Boom: How Commercial Retrofits Can Power America’s Economic Recovery

Monday, November 22nd, 2010
Ryan Hodum



Ryan Hodum is the manager of projects and business development at David Gardiner & Associates LLC and a strategy consultant expert in clean energy policy. He works with businesses and non-profits to develop and manage national campaigns on commercial energy efficiency.

by Ryan Hodum

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Over the last year, as part of its economic stimulus package, the Obama administration has made the largest one-time investment in clean energy in history. The package included nearly $70 billion for promoting energy efficiency, mainly in homes. This makes political and policy sense: Americans trying to dig out from enormous household debt naturally would like to lower their monthly energy bills. And in light of the continuing downward pressure on housing prices, families undoubtedly welcome opportunities to improve the value of their single largest asset. In late August, Vice President Biden announced the successful retrofit of 200,000 homes under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act .

As the residential retrofit industry gains  momentum, national policy makers should turn their attention to a sector with even larger jobcreating potential: commercial building retrofits. Although economists say the Great Recession is over, the private construction industry is still suffering Depression-era unemployment levels and spending has declined by over 30 percent in retail and commercial offices. One in four construction workers are unemployed, according to the Associated General Contractors of America.

A targeted set of short- and long-term policies to spur jobs and drive investment in retrofitting commercial buildings can help reverse these trends. A recent study by Johnson Controls, a leading provider of equipment, controls and services for heating, ventilating, air-conditioning and refrigeration for buildings, found that over 80 percent of management executives identified energy efficiency as a priority for new construction and retrofit projects planned for the coming year. Over the next decade, the market potential for commercial building retrofits is projected to be $18 billion annually. Simply put, retrofitting commercial buildings can help spur economic recovery and therefore should be a top priority for policy makers.

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Why Progressives Should Cool to “Global Warming” Lawsuits

Friday, November 19th, 2010
Phil Goldberg



Phil Goldberg is an attorney at Shook Hardy & Bacon LLP in the firm’s Washington, D.C.-based Public Policy Group. From 1993 through 2000, he was a staff member to three Democratic Members of Congress, including Rep. Steve Rothman (NJ), when Mr. Rothman served on the House Judiciary Committee.

by Phil Goldberg

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Environmental progressives have been urging the federal government to address climate change for more than 30 years. Many of these efforts have focused on setting limits on the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases collectively referred to as “greenhouse gases” or GHGs. Presidents George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama all negotiated international treaties on global emissions, and Congress has considered numerous climate-related bills. None of these efforts, however, has resulted in binding emission caps for U.S. operations, and Senate efforts to pass a “cap and trade” bill have been dropped. As a result, some progressives advocate a new arena for this battle: the courts, with lawsuits against a group of companies to directly force them to reduce emissions.

There are four lawsuits based on the premise that a handful of American companies, all associated with energy use and production, can be held legally responsible for “global warming.” The suits claim that the companies engaged in operations or made products that contributed to the buildup of GHGs in the atmosphere, causing the earth to warm. The cases seek either reductions in emissions or payment for injuries caused by specific weather events, such as hurricanes and flooding, allegedly caused or made worse by climate change. The liability threat for these defendants is massive: billions of dollars in the current suits, injunctions against their operations, and new filings for future weather-related injuries.

For environmental progressives, the real purpose of this litigation is to use the threat of massive liability to force the companies to accept concessions on climate change policy. These lawsuits, first filed in 2004, were born of frustration with the political process, particularly under President Bush, for failing to take steps to combat climate change. Given the seeming demise of climate change legislation in the current Congress, many progressives have found achieving the same – or perhaps more stringent – policies in the courts an increasingly appealing option.

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Reviving Jobs and Innovation: The Role of Countercyclical Regulatory Policy – Part I

Tuesday, November 16th, 2010
Michael Mandel



Michael Mandel is the chief economic strategist at the Progressive Policy Institute and the founder of Visible Economy LLC, a New York-based news and education company.

by Michael Mandel

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Since the Great Depression, the tools of choice for fighting economic downturns have been countercyclical monetary policy and countercyclical fiscal policy. That is, when the economy slowed, economists would recommend cutting interest rates, reducing taxes, and boosting government spending to pump up demand. And for 75 years, those policy measures were enough.

But in the aftermath of the financial crisis, we seem to have almost exhausted the limits of monetary and fiscal policy to create jobs. The Federal Reserve has pushed interest rates down to near zero, although it appears ready to try another round of quantitative easing.

Meanwhile, the federal budget deficit hit $1.3 trillion in fiscal year 2010. In the aftermath of the midterm election victories of candidates who ran against federal spending, it seems politically unlikely that there will be another round of  fiscal stimulus.

Under the circumstances, it may be time to try something new: Countercyclical regulatory policy. That means following a very simple rule: Don’t add new regulations on innovative and growing sectors during economic downturns.

The goal: To encourage innovation and job creation by temporarily abstaining from additional regulation on innovative sectors, and perhaps even temporarily abating some existing regulations on innovative sectors (what I call innovation ecosystems).

The key word here, of course, is ‘temporarily.’ Like countercyclical monetary and fiscal policy, countercyclical regulatory policy is designed to provide a short-run stimulus to the economy by making decisions that can be reversed when the economy improves—the equivalent of a temporary investment tax credit. In other words, countercyclical regulatory policy is not the same as deregulation. It presupposes that regulators stay alert and take care of abuses.

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Gainful Employment: The Real Issue

Monday, October 25th, 2010
Michael Mandel



Michael Mandel is the chief economic strategist at the Progressive Policy Institute and the founder of Visible Economy LLC, a New York-based news and education company.

by Michael Mandel

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Sometimes a proposed piece of legislation or new rule can catalyze debate about a key issue. That seems to be the case for the ‘gainful employment’ rule currently being proposed by the Department of Education (DOE). The rule addresses a very real problem: The large amounts of debt being taken on by some students, mainly those attending for-profit colleges. However, if enacted in its current form, the new rule would require many institutions—for-profit, non-profit, and public alike—to follow complicated new procedures that could greatly limit their flexibility in offering new programs and potentially reduce the educational options open to students.

Are the benefits of the gainful employment rule worth the costs? DOE’s narrow cost-benefit analysis says they are, but its analysis fails to address a broader issue: How should higher education institutions be expected to deal with an uncertain and rapidly changing economic environment? In a world where tomorrow’s labor market may be very different than today’s, should colleges be encouraged to anticipate the changes, or should they stick to the steady teaching of accumulated knowledge and skills for existing jobs?

This policy brief will make one observation about today’s economy, and then draw three implications for policy. The observation is simple: Young educated workers face vastly more uncertainty in the labor market than recent generations of graduates. Young workers with a bachelor’s, associate degree, or other postsecondary education must deal with much higher unemployment rates, falling real wages, and a job landscape that keeps shifting.

The first implication: The increased uncertainty means that colleges have to take more responsibility for informing students about what their education dollar is buying them. In particular, the for-profit sector needs major reforms to deal with what a recent GAO report called “deceptive and questionable marketing practices.” With students facing a tougher time in the job market, for-profit institutions must move away from high-pressure sales tactics, increase transparency about potential outcomes, pay more attention to debt levels, and raise admissions standards. Non-profits and public institutions must bite the bullet as well by offering more information about estimated payback periods and making sure that their students don’t graduate with excess debt.

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Not in Our Backyard: China’s Emerging Anti-Access Strategy

Thursday, October 7th, 2010
Michael Chase



Michael S. Chase is an associate professor in the Strategy and Policy Department at the U.S. Naval War College and a fellow with the Truman National Security Project. The views expressed here are his own.

by Michael Chase

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Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has enjoyed an unparalleled ability to project military power around the globe, as the world’s leading superpower.

But in recent years, potential U.S. rivals have invested in weapons systems and strategies that challenge America’s ability to project such global power. It is part of an “anti-access and area denial” (AA/AD) approach based on operational concepts and military capabilities that deter, delay, or disrupt U.S. military power projection. An AA/AD strategy works not by threatening to best America in a direct contest, but by preventing U.S. military engagement in the first place.

China’s strategists may not use the same terminology as their American counterparts, but there is ample evidence to suggest that Beijing is becoming AA/AD’s leading proponent. Beijing now has capabilities that could dramatically raise the costs of U.S. military intervention in areas vital to national interests, especially Taiwan and the South China Sea. As strategic analyst Andrew Krepinevich observes, “Since the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996…China has moved to shift the military balance in the Western Pacific in its favor by fielding systems capable of driving up the cost of U.S. military access to the region to prohibitive levels.”

While China might not have the capability to sink an American aircraft carrier (or want to because of the risk of escalation), it might cause enough damage to achieve a “mission kill,” preventing air sorties from the ship and forcing it out of the conflict zone. In theory, the threat of this kind of attack would cordon U.S. aircraft carriers so far away from a Chinese theater that their operational and strategic effectiveness would be greatly diminished.

The growing threat to U.S. aircraft carriers—perhaps the greatest symbol of America’s power projection capability—is but one example of China’s military modernization and strategic pivot since the mid-1990s. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is increasingly capable of posing a credible threat to Taiwan and raising the potential costs of U.S. military intervention in a regional conflict.

How and why did China’s approach shift in this new direction? What are the most potent anti-access and area denial capabilities in Beijing’s arsenal? And what are the implications for U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific region?

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