Posts Tagged ‘ Bart Stupak ’

Midwestern Primary Gleanings

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Yesterday’s primaries in Kansas, Michigan and Missouri didn’t get a whole lot of national attention, but they produced some interesting results.

As I mentioned yesterday, MI gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder ran a campaign very much at odds with the CW that the only way to win a GOP primary is to loudly and repeatedly proclaim one’s fidelity to conservative principles and policy positions. The self-proclaimed “nerd” won handily, with 36% of the vote as compared to 27% for congressman Pete Hoekstra and a very disappointing 23% for Attorney General Mike Cox.

Since Snyder explicitly appealed for crossover votes, political detectives (myself included) will try to figure out if that was a big factor in his victory. It was rather interesting that turnout tilted 2-1 Republican in a state that hasn’t gone Republican in a presidential contest since 1988. Certainly the idea that Democrats got involved in a Republican primary will be a source of consolation to conservatives who are none too happy with the results.

Meanwhile, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate known for “centrism,” House Speaker Andy Dillon, didn’t do so well, losing to labor-backed Lansing mayor Virg Bernero by a 59-41 margin. Bernero edged Dillon in his Detroit-area base and then waxed him in heavily unionized areas elsewhere.

The other big Democratic news from Michigan was the defeat of Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick by state senator Hansen Clarke, a development generally attributed to the disastrous decline and fall of her son, former Detroit mayor and current prison inmate Kwame Kilpatrick.

Elsewhere Republicans made the most news and the CW pretty much held. In KS, in a contest dominated by conflicting claims of superior conservatism, Rep. Jerry Moran defeated Rep. Todd Tiahrt by a 50-45 margin, mainly by running up a bigger vote in his own House district. In terms of national endorsements, it was a win for Jim DeMint and a loss for Sarah Palin and Tom Tancredo.

In House races, the big winner on the night was probably the Club for Growth, whichbacked winning candidates in three crowded GOP primaries (MI-3, KS-1 and KS-4). In MI-1, Bart Stupak’s district, where a competitive race is expected in November, add another data point to the Every Vote Counts argument, as exactly one vote separated the two leading Republican candidates (a recount is pending).

And offsetting their bad news from the Michigan governor’s race, conservatives today are crowing about the results of a referendum in Missouri over a proposed state law aimed at blocking implementation of federal health reform legislation. Proposition C, which essentially challenges the U.S. Constitution’s Supremacy Clause by outlawing mandated health insurance, won by a 71-29 margin, which is very impressive until you realize that primary turnout in Missouri was 2-1 Republican. In any event, the referendum will have no practical effect, but that won’t keep conservatives from bragging about it.

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist

Photo Credit: Samantha Celera’s Photostream

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Daily Fix, Fixing Our Broken Politics | 1 Comment »

A Week of Decisive Primaries

Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

This week’s political menu features four state primaries, today in Kansas, Michigan and Missouri, and on Thursday in Tennessee. Since none of these states have 50 percent requirements for party nominations, the primaries will be decisive, and in many cases involving large fields of candidates and low turnout rates, nominees will head towards November without a whole lot in the way of demonstrated public appeal.

Speaking of low turnout, estimates are that about 20 percent of Kansans (a closed primary state) will vote today, with perhaps 25 percent in Michigan and Missouri (open primary states).

The marquee events in Michigan are competitive gubernatorial primaries in both parties (Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is term-limited). On the Democratic side, House Speaker Andy Dillon, generally regarded as a moderate, held the lead for months, but seems to have lost it to a late surge by labor-backed Lansing mayor Virg Bernero. According to a survey last week from Michigan-based EPIC-MRA, Bernero leads Dillon 40-32, though the undecided vote remains high. On the margins, the Democratic turnout could be influenced by the high-profile efforts of one Republican candidate, former Gateway executive Rick Snyder, to encourage a crossover vote (Michigan allows voters to choose which primary they will participate in after they enter the voting booth).

That same EPIC-MRA poll shows Snyder, who has outspent his opponents using personal wealth, in a very close three-way race for the GOP nomination against Attorney General Mike Cox and Rep. Peter Hoekstra. Lingering back in the pack is Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, the favorite candidate of Michigan-bred Guitar-Idol-turned-Right-Wing-Activist Ted Nugent. As is often the case in this year’s GOP primaries, Hoekstra and Cox are engaged in a more-conservative-than-thou competition.  But unusually, Snyder is content to be labeled a “moderate,” and has accepted an endorsement from longtime Republican Gov. Bill Milliken, who in turn endorsed the last two Democratic presidential nominees. Former Congressman Joe Schwarz, widely reviled as a RINO by Michigan conservatives, is heading up an outreach program for Snyder among Democratic and independents. If this works, the iron control of the GOP nationally by the conservative movement will relax the slightest bit, and if it fails, it will be an object lesson to would-be Republican moderates everywhere.

There are a host of competitive congressional primaries in Michigan today, mostly on the Republican side, where candidates will battle for nominations for three open seats (two now held by Republicans, including gubernatorial candidate Hoekstra and fellow-West-Michigander Vern Ehlers, and one now held by retiring Democrat Rep. Bart Stupak), and for the right to take on theoretically vulnerable Democratic freshmen Mark Schauer and Gary Peters. Among Democrats, the big races involve challenges to long-time incumbents, with Detroit Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in very big trouble (in no small part because of the sins of her son, former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick). Having won re-nomination two years ago against a divided field, Kilpatrick is now in danger of losing to State Senator Hansen Clarke.  The incumbent has fought back with endorsements and campaign appearances from Jesse Jackson, Sr., and Jim Clyburne, but nobody will be surprised if she becomes the fourth House incumbent to lose in a primary so far this year. Another incumbent unlikely to meet that fate is Sandy Levin, who is burying challenger State Senator Mike Switalski in heavy spending and active campaigning (securing fundraising help from Bill Clinton).

In Missouri, the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond will be formalized today, with Democrat Robin Carnahan facing only token opposition, and Rep. Roy Blunt likely defeating Tea Party favorite, State Senator Chuck Purgason. Blunt did a good job of recruiting national conservative support, most notably the chair of the new House Tea Party Caucus, Michele Bachmann of Minnesota. The Carnahan-Blunt race will match representatives of Missouri’s two most prominent political dynasties; Roy is the father of former Gov. Matt Blunt, while Robin is the daughter of Mel (governor) and Jean (senator) Carnahan.

The hottest House race in MO is the Republican contest to choose an opponent for House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Ike Skelton, who represents an increasingly conservative district that routinely goes Republican in presidential elections. State Senator Bill Stouffer appears to be the GOP establishment’s choice, while Vickie Hartzler is a longtime Christian Right activist. With a ton of minor candidates on the ballot, these two stand out, and Skelton hopes to drown the winner financially.  He does have a long record of winning big in this district, dating back to 1976,

Over in Kansas, the marquee race is the Republican nomination to succeed Sen. Sam Brownback, who’s running for governor. Two incumbent Republican House members, Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran, are locked in a relatively close contest dominated by Tiahrt’s efforts to play the “true conservative” card against front-runner Moran. While Tiahrt has been endorsed by Sarah Palin and Tom Tancredo, Moran has countered with his own endorsement from Jim DeMint, and by becoming a charter member (along with Tiahrt) of the House Tea Party Caucus. Geography may matter a lot in this race; Moran’s expected to do well in his central-west Kansas district, and Tiahrt in his Wichita-based district. The key could be performance in the 3rd district that includes socially moderate Kansas City suburbs, where Moran’s reputation for grinding his teeth a bit less than Tiahrt on issues like abortion could actually help him.

There are competitive Republican primaries in both the Moran and Tiahrt districts, with the latter featuring a long-shot Democratic chance at a pickup thanks to a strong, well-financed candidate, Raj Goyle. In the state’s one current Democratic district, Stephene Moore is trying to succeed her husband, retiring Rep. Dennis Moore, and in the Republican primary, establishment favorite Kevin Yoder, with a big financial advantage, is trying to hold off former State Rep. Patricia Lightner, a favorite of anti-abortion activists.

On Thursday in Tennessee, the big race is the Republican contest for governor (Democratic incumbent Phil Bredeson is term-limited), with the deep pockets of Knoxville Mayor Bill Halsam helping him maintain a lead over Chattanooga-based Rep. Zach Wamp and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey.

With all three of the leading candidates hailing from East Tennessee, Haslam’s heavy spending could vault him to a big lead in the middle and western sections of the state. The other two candidates appear to be willing to do just about anything to get free media and seize the coveted “true conservative” mantle.  Wamp had to backtrack a bit after suggesting that he’d be willing to push secession of his state if health reform isn’t repealed. And Ramsey weighed in against construction of an Islamic community center in Mufreesboro, suggesting that the First Amendment might not apply to Muslims on grounds that Islam is “a cult.” Yee-haw.

Democratic candidate Mike McWherter, son of former Democratic governor Ned McWherter, awaits the winner of the GOP nomination.

Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.

Photo Credit: Theresa Thompson’s Photostream

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Daily Fix, Fixing Our Broken Politics, Political Memo | 1 Comment »

Get a Grip

Monday, March 22nd, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Just over a month ago, Jon Chait of TNR predicted that conservatives would “freak out” if and when health reform legislation was indeed enacted. Aside from the fact that many of them have been drinking their own kool-aid about the allegedly totalitarian implications of a health care system that would maintain America’s uniquely capitalist orientation towards health services, conservatives spent far too much celebrating the death of reform to accept its resurrection.

I don’t believe in spending too much time on schadenfreude, but it has been interesting to see the absolute shock with which some conservatives and tea party activists have reacted to last night’s vote. My favorite reaction is this from Newt Gingrich, posted on the Human Events site:

This will not stand.No one should be confused about the outcome of Sunday’s vote

This is not the end of the fight it is the beginning of the fight.

The American people spoke decisively against a big government, high tax, Washington knows best, pro trial lawyer centralized bureaucratic health system

In every recent poll the vast majority of Americans opposed this monstrosity

Speaker Pelosi knew the country was against the bill. That is why she kept her members trapped in Washington and forced a vote on Sunday.

She knew if she let the members go home their constituents would convince them to vote no.

The Obama-Pelosi-Reid machine combined the radicalism of Alinsky, the corruption of Springfield and the machine power politics of Chicago.

Sunday was a pressured, bought, intimidated vote worthy of Hugo Chavez but unworthy of the United States of America.

It is hard to imagine how much pressure they brought to bear on congressman Stupak to get him to accept a cynical, phony clearly illegal and unconstitutional executive order on abortion. The ruthlessness and inhumanity of the Obama-Pelosi-Reid machine was most clearly on display in their public humiliation of Stupak.

Hugo Chavez! Saul Alinsky! A six-adjective sentence (“big government, high tax, Washington knows best, pro trial lawyer centralized bureaucratic health system”)! The end of civilization as we know it!

This is the same Newt Gingrich, mind you, who led a Republican-controlled Congress over the brink in 1995 and 1996 in the pursuit of extremely unpopular policies, arguing he had a mandate from the electorate to carry out a conservative revolution. And this is the same Newt Gingrich who increased the power of the Speaker’s Office to levels not seen since the days of “Czar” Reed, all but abolishing the seniority system and making loyalty to the Speaker and the Caucus’ agenda the only criterion for advancement. As for “intimidation”: wonder what Gingrich thought of those Republicans who placed photos of defeated 1994 Democrats on the seats of wavering Democratic members yesterday?

Gingrich’s crocodile tears for Bart Stupak are even more ludicrous. Stupak made himself a national celebrity by creating a symbolic fight over essentially inconsequential language differences in the House and Senate provisions on abortion. Yesterday he accepted a symbolic victory that was equally inconsequential, and folded his tent. I can’t imagine how Obama, Pelosi and Reid were guilty of “ruthlessness and inhumanity” by accepting his face-saving deal.

Newt was almost certainly playing for the galleries where his heart really lives these days: among potential 2012 caucus-goers in Iowa, a right-tilting crowd if ever there was one. And speaking of Iowa Republicans, Rep. Steve King outdid Gingrich in his remarks to a crowd of Tea Party protestors outside the Capitol last night:

You are the awesome American people,” said King. “If I could start a country with a bunch of people, they’d be the folks who were standing with us the last few days. Let’s hope we don’t have to do that! Let’s beat that other side to a pulp! Let’s chase them down. There’s going to be a reckoning!

It’s interesting how King alternates between a threat of violence and a threat to leave this godless socialist country behind and take the “real Americans” with him.

Let’s hope Republicans get a grip over the next few days.

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in A New Framework for Growth and Equity, Daily Fix, Fixing Our Broken Politics | No Comments »

A Huge Accomplishment

Monday, March 22nd, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Health care reform legislation, declared dead so many times by its enemies and sometimes its friends, became an accomplished fact last night via House enactment of the Senate-passed bill. The House also passed the closely associated reconciliation bill “fixing” the Senate bill, and final action on that measure in the Senate will take a while. But no matter: the most important health care legislation since the enactment of Medicare in 1965 is on its way to the president’s desk. It will ultimately provide coverage for 32 million people lacking health insurance; will finally outlaw the denial of insurance (or outrageous premiums for) those with pre-existing conditions, beginning with children; will undertake the most serious effort yet to move the health care system from payment for procedures to payment for good health results; and is estimated to reduce federal budget deficits by $120 billion in its first decade. For dessert, the bill closes the arbitrary “donut hole” for the Medicare prescription drug benefit.

The winding road leading to this accomplishment almost defies description, particularly after Republicans gained a 41st seat in the Senate in January and with it the ability to veto any legislation that didn’t proceed under budget reconciliation rules. After endless mockery for their handling of the issue last year, the administration and the Democratic congressional leadership all earn a great deal of credit for the ultimate victory: Harry Reid for getting all 60 Senate Democrats on board for a bill in December; Nancy Pelosi for the deft negotiations that produced 219 votes in the House; and the White House and the president for refusing to heed a thousand calls to totally revamp or abandon the legislation.

And despite the many conflicts among Democrats over the composition of the ultimate bill, it’s significant that joy over the vote last night extends all across the party, from single-payer fans to managed competition advocates to all sorts of people focused on narrow issues. It appears we owe a special thanks to the Catholic nuns whose strong support for the legislation seems to have shamed Rep. Bart Stupak and several other House colleagues into a face-saving deal on abortion language, mainly a symbolic gesture offered to secure real live votes.

Now Republicans, of course, are predicting a huge public backlash and then a quick repeal of the legislation if and when they retake control of Congress. There will be a lot of noise made in the days just ahead by Tea Party activists who have become invested in apocalyptic rhetoric about the dangers of health reform, and perhaps others who have bought some of the lies and distortions conservatives deployed to fight this legislation, from wild claims about “death panels” to pervasive predictions that premiums will skyrocket and Medicare benefits will be cut. When these disasters don’t occur, much of the negative excitement will die down, even as the merits of health reform become more apparent.

As for threats that the bill will soon be repealed: the very tools of obstruction that Republicans so eagerly utilized to try to thwart health reform will be available to those trying to stop its repeal. Will 60 senators vote to withdraw health coverage from tens of millions of Americans any time soon? Will 60 senators go to the mats to re-establish the “right” of insurance companies to deny coverage to children with pre-existing health conditions? Will Republicans vote to re-open the Medicare prescription drug “donut hole”? Where will they find the funds to offset elimination of health reform’s deficit savings? Maybe they ignored the president’s recent arguments about how the most popular reform measures won’t work without a comprehensive approach. But if Republicans try to repeal reforms piece-meal, they’ll finally figure out what he was talking about.

All in all, it’s clear that President Obama and most congressional Democrats did one thing that cynical voters don’t much expect of politicians these days: they kept a promise to meet one of America’s most urgent national challenges, and they kept it despite a collective Republican decision against any cooperation, despite vast institutional barriers in the Senate, and despite predictable public nervousness about — and, for many, hostility towards — comprehensive action on such a complex issue.

That’s an accomplishment worth celebrating, extending and, if necessary, defending. Let’s prove America’s not ungovernable after all.

Tags: , , , , , ,
Posted in A New Framework for Growth and Equity, Daily Fix | 2 Comments »

Stupak: The Man and the Movement

Thursday, March 18th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Given the importance of Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) and his allies in the struggle for health care reform in the House, it’s worth thinking a bit about what actually makes him tick. A very revealing moment came yesterday, when Stupak blew off a communication from Catholic religious orders representing 59,000 Catholic nuns urging approval of the health reform bill. According to Fox News’ report of Stupak’s reaction:

The conservative Democrat dismissed the action by the White House saying, “When I’m drafting right to life language, I don’t call up the nuns.” He says he instead confers with other groups including “leading bishops, Focus on the Family, and The National Right to Life Committee.”

Stupak’s meaning couldn’t be clearer: in figuring out his position on health reform, he’s not identifying with fellow Catholics who are struggling to balance various ethical considerations; he’s acting as an agent for the Right-To-Life Movement and its often-machiavellian political game plans. It’s particularly interesting that he mentioned Focus on the Family, the right-wing evangelical Protestant “ministry,” as a greater influence on him than 59,000 nuns.

Why does this matter? Well, aside from the fact that any serious ethical review of the bill has to include the positive impact of reform on maternal and childhood health, it’s also pretty clear that the net effect of the bill will be to reduce federal subsidies for abortion. As Matt Yglesias reminds us today, current law massively subsidizes abortions via the tax exclusion for employer-sponsored private health insurance, which frequently includes abortion coverage. By encouraging (especially over time) people to move from employer-sponsored coverage to the new health exchanges for individual coverage, which under the Senate language will make insurance for abortion exceptionally inconvenient, it’s a sure bet that the overall use of federal money to pay for policies that include abortion services will decline. Indeed, a group of twenty-five prominent pro-life Catholic and Protestant leaders recently penned a letter describing claims that the pending bill would expand abortion subsidies as “misinformation.”

So official right-to-lifer opposition to the health reform bill isn’t really “about” abortion. It’s “about” the desire of the Right-To-Life political movement to score a big symbolic triumph, and it’s “about” the non-abortion political agenda of some of the movement’s constituent members. For a group like Focus on the Family, to which Stupak listens so closely, that agenda includes the Republican takeover of Congress and a wide variety of right-wing policy measures that have zero to do with abortion.

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in A New Framework for Growth and Equity, Daily Fix | No Comments »

A Heavy Lift

Thursday, March 4th, 2010
Elbert Ventura


Elbert Ventura is the managing editor of Democracy: A Journal of Ideas. He formerly served as the managing editor of the Progressive Policy Institute.

by Elbert Ventura

We always knew it would be a heavy lift. When Scott Brown swept away the filibuster-proof majority in the Senate – by taking Ted Kennedy’s seat no less – it seemed like a puckish and malevolent act by the legislative gods. Now, as the endgame draws near, the degree of difficulty only continues to go up.

The problem this time is not the Senate but the House. The plan is for the House to pass the bill that the Senate passed, and for both chambers to then pass a “fix” via reconciliation, which would require only a majority in the Senate.

But since the beginning of the year, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has lost several “yes” votes on health care. Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL), a liberal stalwart, resigned January 3; Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) passed away February 8; Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) stepped down on February 28. On top of that, Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA), the only Republican in either chamber to vote for reform, has come out and said he would not be voting for the bill this time around. Add on the Stupak bloc, the group of representatives led by Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) who reject the Senate bill on the grounds that its anti-abortion provisions are less strict than in the bill the House passed, and the bill’s prospects become even dimmer.

Just today, more bad news. Initially, with all the departures from the House, including that of Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA), the magic number for Pelosi had at least shrunk to 216. But Deal today said he would stick around until the vote, raising the threshold to 217 again. But there’s more! There have been reports of other previous “yes” votes now wavering as the GOP ramps up its anti-health reform campaign to “spook” Dems: Rep. Shelley Berkley (NV), Rep. Michael Arcuri (NY), Rep. Kurt Schrader (OR).

But anyone expecting less than a full-on blitzkrieg from the right to sway quaking Dems has not been paying attention. The question is: Does that include the White House?

Too Much Inside Baseball

One of the ironies of health reform legislation has been its declining popularity with the public even as it progressed up the legislative chain. As it passed each new congressional hurdle, public opinion dipped. By the time 2010 rolled around (and before Scott Brown), health reform was on the brink of passing, but the victory seemed like it wouldn’t be quite the rout its supporters had hoped, with the bill so damaged in the public’s eyes.

I always thought that this was the result of an overcorrection on the White House’s part from the mistakes of the Clinton administration. The Clinton health care plan floundered because the administration was so ham-handed when it came to dealing with Congress. This White House adjusted accordingly, and played the beltway game to perfection.

But it never learned from another Clinton mistake, which is that it’s not all about the beltway – the ground game matters, too. With a highly mobilized right wing getting its message out to congressional districts, hardcore opponents – the town hall screamers of last summer – came out of the woodwork, inevitably coloring the impressions of the casual political observer. Phone calls started coming in to congressional offices opposing the bill.  Poll numbers dropped.

Meanwhile, the White House, with both eyes on Congress, failed to fire up its own base. Obama held events here and there, but nothing like a sustained campaign to mold public opinion. Without that leadership, the progressives and moderates who knocked on doors for Obama simply weren’t there this time around to match the other side’s intensity. By the time Scott Brown showed up, some lawmakers were all but ready to be done with health care.

And so here we are. President Obama has gone all in, even going so far as to set a date for when he wants the House to vote. He has also assiduously courted iffy Democrats, inviting them over to the White House and no doubt seeking to buck them up. And with news that he’s about to embark on a barnstorming tour to stump for health care, it’s clear that the White House sees the importance of aggressively shaping public opinion and the media narrative.

But will it be enough? Or is it too little too late? And will the progressive grassroots that helped Obama win the presidency be there to neutralize motivated right-wing foot soldiers and Astroturf groups? Or will those GOP robocalls and conservative vehemence ultimately topple unsteady Democrats? It’s a real test of leadership for the president. And as others have rightly pointed out, it’s a test of the progressive base, too.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in A New Framework for Growth and Equity, Daily Fix | No Comments »