Posts Tagged ‘ Bud Chiles ’

Late August Primary Drama

Friday, August 27th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Tuesday’s five-state primary/runoff extravaganza produced plenty of drama, several close races, and a few surprises — especially in Alaska’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, where former judge Joe Miller, endorsed by Sarah Palin and fueled by the Tea Party Express, ran slightly ahead of incumbent Lisa Murkowski despite being heavily outspent.

With absentee and provisional ballots still pending, Miller leads by 1668 votes. His campaign appears to have benefitted a great deal from turnout patterns affected by an anti-abortion ballot initiative.  If she ultimately loses the GOP nomination, Murkowski could possibly run as the candidate of the Libertarian Party, giving Democrat Scott McAdams a chance.

In a less dramatic outcome, in Arizona, John McCain easily brushed off J.D. Hayworth’s once-fearsome challenge, and Gov. Jan Brewer (R) won with little trouble. GOP House primaries in AZ were a bit more turbulent.  In AZ-3, Ben Quayle, son of yes-that-Quayle, overcame involvement in an off-color internet site to win an open seat nomination over a crowded field.  In AZ-8, represented by Democrat Gabby Giffords, the GOP primary was won by Tea Party favorite Jesse Kelly over front-runner Jonathan Paton in a mild upset.

In Oklahoma, two Republican congressional runoffs were held.  In OK-2, veterinarian Charles Thompson won a low-profile primary to face Blue Dog Democrat Dan Boren. The national GOP will now decide whether to give Thompson a lift by making this a targeted race.  In OK-5, church camp director James Lankford won a surprisingly large win over Club for Growth candidate Kevin Calvey (who appears to have gone too negative) for an open Republican seat.

In Vermont, the Democratic gubernatorial contest seems to be ending as it began: close and civil.  Final but unofficial returns showed state senate president pro tem Peter Shumlin edging former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz for the right to take on Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R).  There’s a chance of a recount, but the candidates have already had a unity rally.

There wasn’t much civility down in Florida, however, where the Republican gubernatorial primary was won by wealthy “conservative outsider” Rick Scott, who will carry his extensive baggage into a three-way general election battle with Democrat Alex Sink and independent Bud Chiles.

Scott’s bitterly disappointed opponent, Attorney General Bill McCollum, has suggested he might endorse Sink.  Meanwhile, Scott’s Democratic doppelganger, billionaire investor Jeff Greene, did not do so well in the Senate primary; congressman Kendrick Meek beat him easily.  (Over at pollster.com, Mark Blumenthal has a good analysis of the challenges Meek will face in the general election).

In highly competitive FL House primaries, 2nd district Blue Dog Alan Boyd narrowly turned back a surprisingly strong challenge from state senate minority leader Al Lawson.  8th district Democrat Alan Grayson, who’s painted a bullseye on his own back with chronic conservative-baiting comments, will face former state senator majority leader Daniel Webster (R).  And another vulnerable Democrat, 24th district congresswoman Susan Kosmas, will face state legislator Sandy Adams, who won a fractious primary dominated by fights between Karen Diebel and Craig Miller.

On Saturday, Louisiana will hold its congressional primary, with three Republicans battling for the 3rd district nomination, an open seat being vacated by Democrat Charlie Melancon, who is running for the Senate.  In the 2nd district, four Democrats are fighting for the chance to take on one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the House, Joseph Cao.

Meanwhile, also on Saturday, West Virginia is holding its special Senate primary, with Gov. Joe Manchin sure to win the Democratic nod in this sleepy contest, and the late Robert Byrd’s 2008 opponent, John Raese, likely to win the Republican nomination.

We’ll then have a brief break in the primary calendar until September 14, when no less than seven states, plus the District of Columbia, hold their nominating contests.

Photo Credit: hlkljgk‘s Photostream

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The Washington and Wyoming Wrap-Up

Friday, August 20th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Tuesday’s primaries in Washington and Wyoming didn’t produce a lot of drama, other than a close three-way race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in the Cowboy State.  But political junkies have been staring at the results of Washington’s “Top 2 blanket primary” (in which all candidates appear on the same primary ballot, with the top two finishers, regardless of percentage, advancing to the general election) for auguries of what will happen in congressional races in November.

That’s particularly true of the U.S. Senate race, where a victory by Republican Dino Rossi over incumbent Patty Murray (D) is generally considered essential to the GOP’s chances of winning control of the upper chamber.

Washington

Thanks to Washington’s practice of accepting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day, the results still aren’t final.  As of the moment, with about 86 percent of ballots counted, Murray has 46.41 percent of the vote, with another 2.3 percent being cast for an assortment of minor Democratic candidates.  Rossi has 33.4 percent, while former Washington Redskins tight end and Tea Party zealot Clint Didier drew an underwhelming 12.5 percent.   Another 3.8 percent went to minor Republicans, so the bottom line is very close to a tie between the two parties (and may get even closer as the final vote, which includes a lot of ballots from staunchly Democratic King County, come in).  Since most of the campaign activity was on the GOP side, Murray may be in better shape than the numbers suggest, but this will definitely be one of the races to watch in November.

In House races in Washington, most of the national attention was focused on the open 3rd district seat of retiring Democrat Brian Baird.  As generally expected, Democrat Denny Heck and Republican Jaime Herrera won the general election spots, but the combined Republican vote of 53 percent is a bit troubling for Democrats.  The same is true in the competitive 8th district, where Republican incumbent Dave Riechert won 47 percent and the total GOP vote rose to 58 percent (Susan DelBene won a general election spot with 27 percent).  On the other hand, in the 2nd district, Democrat Rick Larson won 43 percent and the combined Democratic vote reached 54 percent.  In the 9th district, New Democrat Coalition co-chair Adam Smith pulled 52 percent, and with a Green Party candidate in the field, the combined Republican vote was only 45 percent.

Wyoming

In Wyoming, where Democrats are waging an uphill battle to hang onto the governorship (currently held by the very popular but term-limited Dave Freudenthal), state party chair Leslie Peterson eased past former Wyoming Cowboys football star Pete Gosar in a genial Democratic primary.  But Wyoming voters were denied an all-female general election when former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead edged State Auditor Rita Meyer by 714 votes.  Mead, whose grandfather was former Wyoming Sen. Cliff Hansen, heavily self-financed his campaign, and survived constant RINO accusations by “true conservative” candidate Ron Micheli, who finished a very strong third.  Meyer was endorsed by Sarah Palin and boasted an extensive military record.  Meanwhile, another Wyoming political scion, Colin Simpson (son of Alan), finished a relatively poor fourth.

Speaking of Sarah Palin, St. Joan of the Tundra had another not-so-great night, endorsing not only Meyer but Washington Senate candidate Clint Didier.  She did get a win in WA-2 with Republican leader John Koster, but he was the prohibitive GOP favorite all along.

Next up

Next up on the primary calendar are Alaska, Arizona and Florida (and a runoff in Oklahoma) on August 24, and then Louisiana on August 28.  With John McCain blowing away J.D. Hayworth in Arizona, most of the national attention next week will be on Florida, where the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican gubernatorial primary are hanging fire.  Most polls indicate that the gazillionaires in those races, Democrat Jeff Greene and Republican Rick Scott, have been losing steam of late.  The latest poll, by Quinnipiac, shows Kendrick Meek leading Greene in the Democratic Senate race 35 percent to 28 percent, but with a very large 32 percent of voters still undecided.  Publicity surrounding Greene’s relationship with Mike Tyson and his drug habit have not helped the now-underdog.    Meanwhile, the Q-poll shows McCollum leading Scott 44-35 in the exceptionally nasty GOP gubernatorial primary. It also confirms a variety of recent surveys giving Democrat Alex Sink a narrow lead in a three-way contest involving independent Bud Chiles and either Republican candidate.

Photo Credit: Auntie P’s photostream

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Primary Day in Washington and Wyoming

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

It’s a relatively quiet Tuesday on the electoral front, with just two states, Washington and Wyoming, holding primaries today, and no one expecting any dramatic results of national import.

Washington

Washington has an unusual “Top 2” primary system, in which candidates from all parties compete on a single ballot with the top two finishers advancing to the general election (this is the system recently adopted for future elections in California via a successful initiative). It’s important to note that a majority vote does not (as in Louisiana’s “jungle primary”) obviate the need for a “runoff” in the general election.

The big contest in WA is the Republican challenge to Sen. Patty Murray (D). Almost all of the scenarios for a Republican takeover of the Senate this year require a Republican upset over Murray.  And though it took a while, national Republicans were able to recruit the candidate they wanted in real estate developer Dino Rossi, who lost two close gubernatorial races to Christine Gregoire (D) in 2004 and 2008 and thus enjoys near-universal name ID.

But Rossi’s late entry, and his decision to steer clear of Tea Party gatherings, guaranteed him Republican competition in the primary.  Former Washington Redskins tight end Clint Didier is the strongest of the True Conservative pack.  Didier has drawn an endorsement from Sarah Palin, and should do well in central Washington, but barely reached double digits in a recent PPP poll showing Murray at 47 percent and Rossi at 33 percent.  The buzz tonight will likely be about the relative positioning of Murray and Rossi.

The main event in Washington congressional primaries is in the open 3rd district, where Democrat Brian Baird is retiring.  Former state legislator Denny Heck has largely cleared the field of other Democrats, and should finish first. The national GOP heart-throb for the race is state representative Jaime Herrera, a 31-year-old Latina who has shown a mild (for this year) moderate streak.  Former state legislative staffer and federal appointee David Castillo has run to the right of Herrera, and has won the FreedomWorks endorsement that signifies Tea Party backing. Herrera is favored to make the general election, but an upset is possible.

In the other Washington congressional districts, incumbents are all favored, though in the very competitive 8th district, former Microsoft executive Suzan DelBane (D) is picking up where 2006-2008 Democratic nominee Darcy Burner left off in challenging Republican Dave Riechert.  In the 9th district, two relatively viable Republicans, county commissioner Dick Muri and 2008 nominee James Postma, are battling for a spot opposite New Democrat Coalition co-chair Adam Smith, who will be pretty heavily favored in November.

Wyoming

In Wyoming, that rarest of beasts, a very popular Democratic governor in a very red state, David Freudenthal, decided relatively late this year against a legal challenge to term limits that probably would have enabled him to run for a third term.  Democrats are holding a low-key gubernatorial primary dominated by former state party chair Leslie Peterson and former University of Wyoming football star Pete Gosar, who are both campaigning as political heirs of Freudenthal (Gosar once piloted the governor’s state plane). Peterson is the modest favorite due to high name ID.

The GOP gubernatorial primary in WY has turned into a four-way brawl involving former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, considered the “establishment” candidate; State Auditor Rita Meyer, who can boast of an elaborate military background and a late endorsement from Sarah Palin; House Speaker Colin Simpson, son of former Sen. Alan Simpson (whose old friend George H.W. Bush has given Simpson the Younger an endorsement); and hard-core conservative Ron Micheli, who’s won the endorsement of Wyoming anti-abortion activists and is challenging his opponents to take no-new-tax pledges.

A Mason-Dixon poll at the end of July showed Meyer at 27 percent, Mead at 24 percent, Simpson at 17 percent, and Micheli at 12 percent.  Simpson’s undertaken a late media blit, and Micheli seems to have the True Conservative mojo going for him, so anything could happen.

Next Week: Florida

Looking ahead a week, the extremely unstable political situation in Florida going into the August 24 primary remains unclear.  In the toxic GOP gubernatorial race, three recent polls (Mason-Dixon, Tarrance and McGlaughlin) show Attorney General Bill McCollum retaking the lead from heavy-spending Rick Scott, but an Ipsos survey shows Scott still well ahead.  But Mason-Dixon and Ipsos agree in giving Democrat Alex Sink a lead over either Republican in a three-way race involving independent Bud Chiles.

In the Democratic Senate race, Mason-Dixon and Susquehanna show congressman Kendrick Meek taking advantage of bad publicity involving billionaire Jeff Greene to retake a double-digit lead in that contest.  But again, Ipsos cuts against the grain with a survey showing Greene still up 40-32.

Since incumbent Gov. and independent Senate candidate Charlie Crist is very dependent on Democratic votes to remain viable, he has a big stake in the outcome of the Democratic primary.  But given all the dramatics of the race, it’s unclear which candidate would help Crist, and which candidate could give Crist and Marco Rubio a run for their money.

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From Georgia to Oklahoma

Friday, July 23rd, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

I won’t go through the all the results for Tuesday’s Georgia primary, since an earlier P-Fix post covered the basics.  But I will mention a few details that I omitted in the quick piece I did on Wednesday.

In the gubernatorial contest, while Democrat Roy Barnes looks highly competitive for the general election (particularly if the Republican runoff gets as nasty as it looks like it may), it’s worth noting that turnout for the GOP primary was just under 700,000, while turnout for the Democratic side was just under 400,000. While turnout in both parties was terrible, and some of the disparity was attributable to the more competitive nature of the GOP battle (and the attendant television ads), it’s a reminder that this state which didn’t have a Republican governor from the early days of Reconstruction until 2002 now has a decided red tint. To win, Barnes will need to run a very good campaign (he’s certainly reconfirmed his reputation as an outstanding fundraiser), while taking advantage of the opportunities the GOP has created in eight years of lackluster governance of the state, and in the extremism of the primary messages of its candidates this year. If Barnes does win, he would interrupt what would otherwise certainly be a blatant Republican gerrymandering effort, made all the worse by Georgia’s acquisition of an additional congressional district.

A second observation is that this is one GOP primary where geography seemed to matter more than ideology or the association of this or that candidate with the Tea Party or some national conservative figure. I’ve posted a fairly elaborate analysis of this topic at FiveThirtyEight, but suffice it to say that Karen Handel finished first more because she is from vote-rich metro Atlanta than because she was endorsed by Jan Brewer and Sarah Palin. The endorsements definitely helped her overcome a financial deficit by generating free media, but in the end half the primary vote was cast in her base region, and that was the most important difference. And that’s also why she has to be considered a heavy favorite in the runoff, since her opponent, Nathan Deal, did well only in his north Georgia base, which provides a much smaller segment of the GOP vote. It’s a measure of the importance of geography that Handel trounced Deal in the Atlanta suburb of Cobb County, home of Deal’s padrone, Newt Gingrich.

Perhaps because of this disadvantage, Deal looks likely to spend the three-week runoff attacking Handel for insufficient conservatism, which won’t be easy given her Palin association and her own harsh record on issues ranging from taxes (she wants to abolish the state income taxes and rely instead on regressive consumption taxes to finance state government) to immigration (as Secretary of State, she initiated a harsh voter ID system that ensnared a good many native citizen voters on primary day). So far Deal has mainly pounded Handel for supporting a rape-and-incest exception to an abortion ban, which used to be an acceptable conservative position, and for making a small contribution to the Log Cabin Republicans back when she was running for office in culturally tolerant Fulton County (Atlanta). Since Handel’s main attack line on Deal has involved ethics allegations, this could be a truly nasty culture-war dominated runoff that could drive up both candidates’ negatives.

In terms of the congressional races, there will be four Republican runoffs on August 10, two in safe Republican districts, one in a safe Democratic district, and one to choose an opponent for theoretically vulnerable Democrat John Barrow (D-GA) (though he is likely to have a big financial advantage and Barack Obama carried his district).

Down-ballot, there will be a highly contentious Republican runoff for Attorney General that could boost statewide turnout.  And though it’s not directly connected to the primaries, the general election will be complicated by the fact that outgoing GOP Gov. Sonny Perdue is backing an independent candidate for State School Superintendent because the Republican nominee opposes accepting Race to the Top dollars.

The next primary is in Oklahoma on July 27, where there are competitive gubernatorial contests in both parties.

In polling news, PPP has had some interesting assessments of the Florida governor’s race.  The late but free-spending entry of controversial former hospital executive and health reform opponent Rick Scott in the GOP contest has upset a lot of apple carts. A primary survey shows Scott beating long-time front-runner and party warhorse Bill McCollum 43-29, mainly by driving McCollum’s approval ratio among Florida Republicans to a dismal 26-40. But a general election poll shows Democrat Alex Sink beating either Republican (along with independent candidate Bud Chiles). And in the general electorate, Scott’s approval ratio is 23-41 and McCollum’s a truly disastrous 16-51. Like Georgia, this is a state where a Democratic gubernatorial victory could have major implications for redistricting.

In non-candidate polling news, Mark Blumenthal of pollster.com has a solid and very thorough critique of the new Politico “Power and the People” surveys by Mark Penn comparing the views of Americans generally with those of “D.C. Elites.”

Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.

Photo credit: Chuck “Caveman” Coker’s Photostream

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