Posts Tagged ‘ Chris Bowers ’

Phil A. Buster and Democratic Regrets

Friday, July 30th, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

In an interesting argument over at OpenLeft about the biggest mistake recently made by Democrats, Chris Bowers suggests that fighting Republican efforts to gut the right to filibuster back during the “nuclear option” debate of 2005 had truly fateful consequences:

[N]ot allowing Republicans to destroy the filibuster back in 2005 is the biggest mistake made by not only President Obama, but by the Democratic trifecta as a whole (and, I admit, my biggest mistake too). This would have resulted in a wide swatch of changes, including a larger stimulus, the Employee Free Choice Act, a better health bill (in all likelihood, one with a public option, and completed in December), an actual climate / energy bill, a second stimulus, and more. If Democrats had tacked on other changes to Senate rules that sped up the process, such as doing away with unanimous consent, ending debating time after cloture is achieved on nominations, eliminating the two days between filing for cloture and voting on cloture, and restricting quorum calls, then virtually every judicial and administration vacancy would already be filled, as well.

I agree with the general argument that Democrats who got all nostalgic about Senate traditions in 2005 when Republicans were threatening to eliminate filibusters against judicial nominations were not thinking strategically. In particular, those who cheered the Schoolhouse Rock-inspired “Phil A. Buster” ads run by the progressive Alliance for Justice would now probably cringe at the memory.

But for the record, it’s important to remember what was actually going on in 2005, in the Republican effort to force Senate floor votes on Bush judicial nominations. The GOP argument was not against filibusters tout court, but against judicial filibusters. And their argument was that such filibusters were unconstitutional on grounds that they violated the provisions requiring Senate advice and consent for judicial nominations. Indeed, the “nuclear option” they threatened was simply a ruling by the vice president, as presiding officer of the Senate, that Rule XXII governing the terms for ending debate was unconstitutional with respect to judicial nominations. Ending filibusters altogether was never on the table, barring some see-you-and-raise-you Democratic tactic of offering Bush his judges in exchange for a more radical step towards majority rule in the Senate, which was never seriously contemplated.

Sure, Republicans have had some fun over the last couple of years quoting Democrats who made pro-filibuster comments in 2005, and it’s true that some Democrats didn’t try very hard back then to make the specific case for judicial filibusters (a case that could have been made on grounds that lifetime appointments to the federal bench require greater Senate scrutiny than the routine legislation that Republicans now routinely block, creating a virtual 60-vote requirement for Senate action). But Democrats need not spend too much time regretting the failure to take advantage of an opportunity that never really existed in 2005.

Photo Credit: displacedtexan’s Photobucket

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.

Is a GOP Senate Takeover Realistic?

Monday, April 26th, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

After some developments on the candidate recruitment front, it’s probably a good time to take a fresh look at the U.S. Senate battleground for November, and on Republican dreams of actually retaking control of the chamber.

As always, that dream remains a bit of a fantasy, requiring as it would that Republicans win 28 of 36 senatorial contests, including takeovers of 10 Democratic seats without a single loss of one of their own. (Some would argue that Republicans only need 49 or 50 seats for control, since they’d be able to pull Joe Lieberman and/or Ben Nelson into a party-switch, but that’s very speculative). With viable GOP candidates recently choosing not to run in WI and NY, and with time soon to run out on a viable candidate in WA, even a sweep of winnable races wouldn’t quite get Republicans across the line.

More realistic projections suggest major but not apocalyptic Republican gains (the GOP has all but banked a seat in ND, and both AR and DE look very tough for Democrats to hold onto). Nate Silver’s statistical model currently projects a four-seat Republican gain, though he concedes that GOPers would win three more seats if the election were held today. And he shows the probability of a Republican takeover of the Senate as no higher than the probability that Democrats will actually gain seats (six percent versus seven percent, respectively, to be exact).

Chris Bowers’ latest projections suggest a Republican pickup of seven seats (ND, AR, DE, IN, PA, NV, CO). Being more cautious, and focusing on narrowing the field of competitive races rather than making predictions, Cook Report’s Jennifer Duffy shows nine races—five over Democratic held-seats, and four over Republican-held seats—as toss-ups.

Not that I put myself in the company of these campaign analysts, but I suspect that the contests in CO and PA will wind up being barnburners, not the relatively easy Republican wins some expect, and it’s also likely that some Republican seats, most notably OH, will remain winnable for Democrats. And there have been positive developments for Democrats even in some of the toughest races. There’s Nevada, where Harry Reid has to be happy about the widespread mockery of his strongest GOP challenger, Sue Lowden, for comments suggesting that Americans should barter for health services instead of relying on insurance (now being known as the “Chickens for Check-Ups” proposal). Meanwhile, Charlie Crist’s probable indie run in FL cannot help but complicate GOP efforts to hold onto that Senate seat. And it’s important to remember that Republican primaries still ahead could change a lot of calculations, particularly if far-right candidates like J.D. Hayworth of AZ or Marlin Stutzman of IN or Ken Buck of CO win nominations, or if vicious warfare between candidates repels voters generally, as could happen in CA.

In polling news, Rasmussen shows a very close gubernatorial race in WI, and also places new Democratic Senate candidate Michael Thurmond of GA within shouting distance of incumbent Republican Johnny Isakson. And PPP establishes that Democratic NH Gov. John Lynch probably isn’t going to top 70 percent of the vote as he has in the last two cycles, though he remains a strong favorite for re-election. Meanwhile, Survey USA shows WA Sen. Patty Murray (D) in a tight race for re-election even if the GOP’s proto-savior, Dino Rossi, doesn’t run.

Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Monday and Friday.

Progressives and Poker

Friday, March 19th, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

There’s been some interesting talk going on this week involving a post mortem assessment of “the Left’s” strategy on health reform, particularly in terms of the ultimate emptiness of threats from progressive House Democrats that they would vote against any bill that didn’t include a “robust” public option.

Glenn Greenwald argues that progressives have once again exposed–and possibly even increased — their “powerlessness” within the Democratic Party. Chris Bowers challenges the premise by arguing that progressives did secure significant changes in the Senate bill, most notably the agreement to “fix” it, which certainly wasn’t the path of least resistance.

Meanwhile, Armando of Talk Left has compared the lack of leverage of progressives over items like the public option to the success of the labor movement in forcing concessions on the “Cadillac tax.” And Nate Silver has responded by arguing that progressive threats didn’t work because they weren’t credible in the first place.

I think everyone in this debate would agree that it’s generally a bad idea in politics to make threats you are entirely unwilling to carry out, but the real division of opinion is on whether such threats should be tempered or in fact intensified. But Nate makes one point that bears repeating: the political value of aggressiveness and posturing can and often does get exaggerated.

It feels good to assert that progressives just need to be tougher — perhaps even to the point of feigning irrationality. These arguments are not necessarily wrong — a reputation for being tougher bargainers would help at the margins — but it misdiagnoses the problem on health care. The progressive bloc failed not because of any reputational deficiency on the part of the progressives but because their bluff was too transparent — they claimed to be willing to wager enormous stakes (health care reform) to win a relatively small pot (the public option). That would have been beyond the capacity of any poker player — or activist — to pull off.

I’ve never much liked the strain of progressive analysis that endlessly promotes “fighting” and “spine” and “cojones” as the answers to every Democratic political problem. Sometimes “brains” or “heart” are more important, and moreover, if politics is reduced to a willingness to project brute force, the bad guys are going to win every time; it’s like getting into a selfishness competition with the Right — we’ll never win. But in any event, however you feel about the Will to Power theory of politics, Nate’s right, people aren’t all stupid, and macho posturing by progressives when it doesn’t make sense isn’t going to convince anybody. Poker playing is a relatively small and overrated part of politics. Real conviction and strategies based on conveying those convictions to friends and potential friends are the best building blocks for successful strategy.

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.