Posts Tagged ‘ Conservatism ’

Tactical Radicalism and Its Long-Term Implications

Monday, July 19th, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

It’s been obvious for quite some time–dating back at least to the fall of 2008–that the Republican Party is undergoing an ideological transformation that really is historically unusual. Normally political parties that go through two consecutive really bad electoral cycles downplay ideology and conspicuously seek “the center.” Not today’s GOP, in which there are virtually no self-identified “moderates,” and all the internal pressure on politicians — and all is no exaggeration — is from the right.

But as Jonathan Chait notes today, there are two distinct phenomena pulling the GOP to the right this year: there’s ideological radicalism, to be sure, but also what he calls “tactical radicalism:”

Obviously the conservative movement is intoxicated with hubris right now. Part of this hubris is their belief that the American people are truly and deeply on their side and that the last two elections were either a fluke or the product of a GOP that was too centrist. It’s a tactical radicalism, a belief that ideological purity carries no electoral cost whatsoever.

This is what I’ve called the “move right and win” hypothesis, and it’s generally based on some “hidden majority” theory whereby every defeat is the product of a discouraged conservative base or some anti-conservative conspiracy (e.g., the bizarre “ACORN stole the election” interpretation of 2008). As Chait observes, there is a counterpart hypothesis on the left, but is vastly less influential, and anyone watching internal party politics these days will note the vast difference in tone between Democratic primaries where moderation is a virtue and Republican primaries where it’s a vice.

While many Democrats (including Chait in the piece I’ve linked to) are interested in the short-term implications of tactical radicalism, such as the possibility that GOP candidates like Sharron Angle or Rand Paul could lose races that should be Republican cakewalks, there’s a long-term factor as well that no one should forget about for a moment. If, as is almost universally expected, Republicans have a very good midterm election year after a highly-self-conscious lurch to the right, will there be any force on earth limiting the tactical radicalism of conservatives going forward? I mean, really, there’s been almost no empirical evidence supporting the “move right and win” hypothesis up until now, and we see how fiercely it’s embraced by Republicans. Will 2010 serve as the eternal validator of the belief that America is not just a “center-right country” but a country prepared to repudiate every progressive development of the last century or so?

That could well be the conviction some conservatives carry away from this election cycle, and if so, what would normally pass for the political “center” will be wide open for Democrats to occupy for the foreseeable future.

Photo Credit: Steve Rhode’s Photostream

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.

Unstable Platform

Monday, July 12th, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Seyward Darby has an amusing piece at the New Republic’s site with some of the loonier provisions found in state Republican Party platform documents.

It’s all good clean fun, but does this craziness matter? No, suggests the CW; party platform committees these days, at any level, are a sandbox dominated by ideological activists, producing turgid documents that candidates feel free to ignore.

Fair enough, I guess, but what about those states where ideological activists have an unusually important role? How about, say, Iowa, whose caucuses often all but dictate one or the other party’s nominating process?

I strongly suggest a reading of the Iowa Republican Party Platform by anyone who accuses “liberals” or “the media” of exaggerating the extremism of today’s conservatives.

This 367-plank, 12,000-word document, adopted just last month at the Iowa State Republican Convention, is relentlessly kooky. Right up top, before the “statement of principles,” the platform features a long, ominous quote from Cicero about “traitors.” It’s not made clear whether said traitors are Democrats, RINOs, or Muslims, but treason sure seems to be a major preoccupation for Iowa Republicans.

Once you get to the “statement of principles,” it’s hard to miss principle number seven, which would have satisfied Ayn Rand even on one of her crankier days:

The individual works hard for what is his/hers. Therefore, the individual will determine with whom he/she will share it, not the government. No more legal plunder. Legal plunder is defined as using the law to take from one person what belongs to them, and giving it to others to whom it does not belong. It is plunder if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what that citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime.

Given that principle, it’s not surprising that elsewhere the platform flatly calls for the abolition of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid (along with minimum wage laws), and of the federal departments of Agriculture (!), Education and Energy. It also appears to oppose any anti-discrimination laws of any sort.

Beyond such basics, the Iowa GOP Platform is essentially a compilation of every right-wing consipracy theory-based preoccupation known to man. In a nod to Glenn Beck, the statement of principles mentions “Progressivism” along with “Collectivism, Socialism, Fascism, [and] Communism” as ideologies incompatible with the Founding Fathers’ design. There’s a birther plank. There’s a plank about the “NAFTA Superhighway.” There’s a plank about ACORN. There’s a plank about the “fairness doctrine.” There’s plank after plank after plank opposing the nefarious activities of the United Nations. There’s a plank calling for abolition of the Federal Reserve System. Needless to say, there are many, many planks spelling out total opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage in excrutiating detail, and attacking any limitation on campaign activities or use of tax dollars by religious organizations.

The very end of the platform holds that Republican candidates should be denied party funds if they don’t agree with at least 80% of the platform, as determined by questionnaires asking about every single crazy plank. This is something we should all be able to get behind; I’d love to see not only Iowa Republican gubernatorial candidate Terry Branstad, a notorious fence-straddler on many issues, but the entire 2012 GOP presidential field, have to check boxes next to solemn items like:

We oppose any effort to implement Islamic Shariah law in this country.

If all this madness is really out of the mainstream of Republican thinking, then perhaps the adults of the GOP should expend the minimum effort necessary to say so very explicitly.

Photo credit: Mike Licht, NotionsCapita.com’s Photostream

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.

Good Ol’ Days

Friday, July 2nd, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

When House Republican leader (and would-be Speaker) John Boehner claimed the other day that Democrats were “snuffing out the America I grew up in,” it didn’t cause much reaction (or at least far less than his remarks on Social Security and on financial regulation), since it’s the kind of thing conservatives say all the time. But as Mike Tomasky quickly noted, it was a very strange statement if you actually think the problem with Democrats is their addiction to big government and their subservience to unions:

Boehner was born in November 1949. Let’s take a look at the America he grew up in.In the America John Boehner grew up in, the top marginal tax rate on wealthy earners was 90%. It had gone up there during the war, and five, 10, 15 years after armistice, no sizable group, Democrat or Republican, felt any strong urge to lower it.

In the America John Boehner grew up in, private-sector union membership was around or above 30%. Today’s figure is 7%. The right to form a union was broadly accepted. Outside of a few small turbulent pockets, there was no such thing as today’s union-busting law firms hired by management to go into workplaces and intimidate workers.

That’s all very true. But as Matt Yglesias observes, the country was in fact a lot more conservative back then on the cultural front:

[In] many other respects the America of John Boehner’s youth was a much more right-wing country. Gays and lesbians were stuffed deep into the closet, and there was no suggestion that they should be allowed to serve openly in the military or in any other role. African-Americans were subjected to pervasive discrimination in housing and employment, and in the southern states they couldn’t vote or exercise any basic rights–all this backed by the state, and also by collusion between state authorities and ad hoc terrorist groups. It was a whiter country with dramatically fewer residents of Asian or Latin American descent. It was a more religiously observant country, and it was a country in which Jews were far from fully accepted into American life.I’m not nostalgic for that era at all. There are a few areas of policy in which I think we’ve moved backwards since the mid-sixties, but I wouldn’t want to return to an America with almost no immigrants or to an America with a single monopoly provider of telecom services. I’m glad airlines can set their own ticket prices and I’m glad black people can sit in the front of the bus. What is it that Boehner misses?

What indeed? Let’s all remember Boehner’s regret for the passing of the good ol’ days of high taxes, strong unions, Jim Crow and homophobia next time we are told that the GOP wants to declare a truce in the culture wars, or only cares about economic or fiscal issues.

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.

The Ever-Shifting RINO Line

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

One of the more interesting byproducts of the Tea Party Movement and the ideological battles going on within the Republican Party is that the tolerance of “movement conservatives” for dissent is really reaching a low level. This was made most painfully evident during the recent Utah Senate primary, when Tim Bridgewater, whose issue positions would have placed him on the far right fringe of the GOP as recently as a couple of years ago, was regularly denounced by supporters of Mike Lee as a RINO, mainly for supporting in the past Republican initiatives that a majority of Republican officeholders also supported.

Now the litmus-testers seem to be training their sights on the GOP’s leadership in the House. Check out the language of this post today from right-wing opinion leader Erick Erickson of RedState:

Eric Cantor and John Boehner — particularly Eric Cantor — have decided they don’t need or want conservatives and, more troubling, do not have any intention of trying to win at the polls by forcing Democrat hands on Obamacare….Last week and on Monday I mentioned Rep. Steve King’s effort to repeal Obamacare and start over. He’s filed a discharge petition. If he gets 218 signatures, Nancy Pelosi must hold a vote.

At the time, I was hearing that Eric Cantor was desperate to undermine Steve King’s efforts and, sure enough, he’s trying. Worse, he has John Boehner helping him….

Today, Eric Cantor and John Boehner are announcing that they’ll sign King’s discharge petition, but they’re also going to go with one by Congressman Wally Herger that would repeal Obamacare and replace it with a Republican alternative….

Tea Party activists and others should pay attention here: Eric Cantor and John Boehner are implementing a strategy that makes it look like they are on your side, but are in fact stabbing you in the back.

Cantor and Boehner are spinning this as a good thing. But it is not. It muddies the water and gives Democrats an escape from being forced to take action.

Any Republican who signs on to the Herger discharge petition should be driven from office for betraying the “repeal” cause. This does nothing but provide cover to people who don’t really want to repeal Obamacare, just nibble at the edges.

And should the GOP take back Congress in November, we should remember this betrayal and the lies that go with it.

So a strategic difference of opinion in which Boehner and Cantor, who are slavishly deferential to the conservative movement, chose not to go along with the routinely demented Steve King becomes a “betrayal” rationalized by “lies” that reveal the two top House GOP leaders as secret allies of the satanic socialists.

Granted, Erickson likes to play the bully-boy and go rhetorically over the top as an intimidation tactic, but this is still pretty amazing stuff. Looks like by November the RINO line will have shifted so far that even Steve King will need to watch his back.

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.

Photo credit: asterix661

SC, Utah Runoffs Highlight Tuesday Primaries

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

It’s primary day in Utah, with statewide primary runoffs on tap in North and South Carolina.

Taking these states in reverse order: South Carolina is almost certain to produce the bulk of national political headlines tonight, with the made-for-TV saga of Republican gubernatorial candidate (and certain boffo winner tonight) Nikki Haley front-and-center. In case you have somehow missed it, Haley is the very, very conservative state legislator who began the campaign as the underfunded protégé of disgraced “conservative reformer” Mark Sanford, and then vaulted into contention just as one and then two South Carolina Republican political operatives went public with allegations that they’d had illicit sex with the candidate.

It’s sometimes difficult to separate cause and effect in political developments, but it’s reasonably clear that the poorly documented sexual allegations against Haley, compounded more recently by crude attacks on her ethnicity (she’s second-generation Indian-American) and religion (she’s an adult convert to evangelical Protestantism from her family’s Sikh tradition), have immeasurably helped her campaign while reducing her once-powerful gubernatorial rivals to bystanders if not presumed accomplices in smears against her. Haley nearly won the nomination without a runoff, and was also endorsed by third-place finisher Attorney General Henry McMaster. Her opponent, Rep. Gresham Barrett, won the dubious prize of an endorsement from last-place primary finisher Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, and also managed to outspend Haley in the brief runoff campaign. But that matters little in a race driven by scandal-fed free media, and the only question is how high her margin will rise, and how well she wears on voters in a long general election campaign against Democrat Vincent Sheheen.

Those who want to boost the GOP as a party that presents diverse candidates proclaiming a single rigid conservative message will be hoping against hope that another South Carolina runoff, in the Low Country 1st congressional district, produces a win for state representative Tim Scott. Scott, who like Haley claims the “true conservative” mantle (and has both a Sarah Palin endorsement and Club for Growth backing), is African-American, and in a coincidence that could have been made in Hollywood, his runoff opponent is none other than Strom Thurmond’s son, Paul (a Charleston County council member).

Meanwhile, in upstate South Carolina, Republican Rep. Bob Inglis is expected to lose his House seat to Tea Party favorite Trey Gowdy; Inglis only won 28 percent of the vote in the primary to Gowdy’s 39 percent. Inglis got into trouble for voting for TARP and daring to criticize Glenn Beck.

In North Carolina, it’s anybody’s guess as to whether Elaine Marshall or Cal Cunningham will win the Democratic nomination to face Sen. Richard Burr. Marshall led the primary 37-26, narrowly missing the 40 percent threshold for winning the nomination outright. She also got an endorsement from third-place primary finisher Ken Lewis, which added to her strength among African-American leaders. But Cunningham, who was recruited into the race by the DCCC, has been the aggressor in the runoff, touting his electability.  The only public poll of the runoff, taken by PPP last month, showed the two dead even with a large undecided vote. I’d guess Marshall is still the favorite to win a very low-turnout runoff.

Aficionados of wild campaigns and wilder candidates may be disappointed tonight by the expected defeat of North Carolina Republican congressional candidate Tim D’Annunzio, who according to PPP is trailing Harold Johnson for the right to take on Democratic incumbent Larry Kissell.

With so much national attention on the Carolinas, the ideological drama going on in both parties in Utah may not receive due notice. As you may recall, Utah Republicans dumped Sen. Bob Bennett at a state convention last month as he trailed two challengers for the right to go to today’s primary. The survivors, entrepreneur Tim Bridgewater and former SCOTUS clerk Mike Lee, are both hard-core conservatives by most national standards. But Lee’s national supporters (including Jim DeMint and RedState’s Erick Erickson) are going after Bridgewater hammer-and-tong as little other than the ideological heir to Bennett (who, along with another defeated candidate, Eagle Forum activist Cherilyn Eagar, has endorsed Bridgewater). The one independent poll shows Bridgewater up by nine points, but Lee has released his own poll showing him up nine points.

Meanwhile, Utah’s sole Democratic congressman, Tim Matheson, is facing a serious primary challenge from the left, from retired teacher Claudia Wright. Wright has made Matheson’s opposition to health reform a major theme, and there’s also been talk of Republicans crossing over into the open Democratic primary to “take out” the incumbent (though as always, tactical voting is actually a pretty rare phenomenon). In a late poll, Matheson led Wright 52-33, but whatever vote Wright receives will be closely watched for national implications, given progressive grumbling about Blue Dogs like Matheson.

Photo credit: maryaustinphoto

Haley Accuser Endorses…Haley; Tuesday Primaries in NC, Utah

Saturday, June 19th, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

If you want a pretty good indication of the power of ideology in today’s Republican Party, check out the latest endorsement of front-runner Nikki Haley for the Republican gubernatorial nomination just before next Tuesday’s runoff:

So let’s get this straight … we know for a fact that S.C. Rep. Nikki Haley is lying through her teeth every time she denies our founding editor’s claim that she had an “inappropriate physical relationship” with him in the Spring of 2007. On top of that, we also know for a fact that her political career could very well go down in flames if (and more likely “when”) this ticking time bomb goes off …

And yet we’re endorsing her for the 2010 S.C. Republican gubernatorial nomination anyway?

Correct….

[T]he bottom line for S.C. taxpayers is that Haley would vote the right way on the S.C. Budget and Control Board, use her veto pen to reduce the size and scope of government and sign a universal parental choice bill which would (at long last) provide parents with real options and our flawed system with real, market-based accountability.

Yes, Haley has been endorsed by the web page of South Carolina blogger Will Folks, whose allegation of an affair with Haley turned the gubernatorial race upside down. Unless you buy the theory that Folks and Haley actually cooked up the whole J’accuse to preempt rumors about her sex life and make her a martyr, Folks’ endorsement looks like a powerful validator of the notion that being Right is more important than being right to today’s conservative activists.

There haven’t been any public polls on this race released since the June 8 primary, but a pre-primary poll by PPP that asked about a hypothetical Haley-Gresham Barrett runoff showed her up 51-35. This was before third-place finisher Henry McMaster endorsed Haley.

In North Carolina, where Democrats are having a Senate runoff on Tuesday, the only post-primary poll (again, by PPP) showed first-place primary finisher Elaine Marshall and DSCC favorite Cal Cunningham even at 36 percent with a large undecided vote. But that was more than a month ago, and given the likelihood of very low turnout, anything could happen. Marshall was endorsed by third-place finisher Ken Lewis, buttressing her advantage among African-Americans, and also by MoveOn.

And in Utah, whose primary is also on Tuesday, a poll taken for Mike Lee’s campaign showed him leading Tim Bridgewater in the Republican Senate race 39-30.  Bridgewater, a hard-core conservative but in better standing than Lee with the GOP establishment, has been endorsed by defeated incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett and also by fourth-place finisher Cherilyn Eager.

Poll Watch

In polling news, it’s a sign of the trouble that the long-time front-runner in the Florida Republican gubernatorial race, Bill McCollum, is experiencing with free-spending late-entering candidate Rick Scott that McCollum has released a poll showing them running dead even.

A new Sooner Poll of the Oklahoma Democratic gubernatorial race (the primary is on July 27) shows Attorney General Drew Edmondson holding just a one-point lead over Lt. Gov. Jari Askins.

Rasmussen has three new general-election gubernatorial polls out. In Texas, they show Rick Perry with a 48-40 lead over Bill White, although White has a somewhat better approval-disapproval ratio than the incumbent. In Tennessee, they show all three major Republican gubernatorial candidates with double-digit leads over Democrat Mike McWherter. And in Arkansas, Democratic incumbent Mike Beebe enjoys a 57-33 lead over Republican nominee Jim Keet, a slightly higher margin than he had in May.

You Don’t Have to Be Racist To Hate the 20th Century

Monday, May 24th, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Before we move on from the controversy over Rand Paul’s comments on the Civil Rights Act of 1964, it’s important to understand that controversy over his political philosophy is likely to persist. And ironically, that’s especially true if the accusations of active or latent racism on Paul’s part are completely unfair.

If Paul’s original observations on the Civil Rights Act were motivated by indifference to discrimination against minorities, or the conviction some conservatives share that any government action to protect minorities is itself racism, then the controversy is limited to this one topic. In that case, the damage is limited to those voters who care about civil rights, many of whom will not be voting for Rand Paul in Kentucky or Republicans anywhere else.

But if, as his defenders insist (and as the record seems to support), Paul is simply expressing the consistent view that the operations of free markets, not government, are the best guarantor of individual rights in general and the interests of the poor and minorities in particular, and that the U.S. Constitution, rightly interpreted, reflects this conviction, then other, equally controversial issues may come into play, and not just those that involve other types of discrimination.

Most immediately, it’s worth remembering that principled, non-racist opponents of civil rights laws have to accept responsibility for their tacit alliances with racists. Best I can tell, Barry Goldwater did not have a prejudiced bone in his body. But there can be zero doubt that thanks to his “principled” opposition to the Civil Rights Act, his 1964 presidential campaign was totally dominated by segregationists in five of the six states he carried in the General Election, and served as the “bridge” whereby segregationists eventually migrated from the Democratic to the Republican party. At some point, the subjective motivation of civil rights opponents, past, present or future, becomes rather irrelevant.

But more importantly, Rand Paul’s concerns with the constitutionality of the Civil Rights Act suggest a radical outlook with political implications that go far beyond civil rights. After all, the provisions of the Civil Rights Act that limit the right to discriminate by private property owners depend on the same chain of “activist” Supreme Court decisions that made possible the major New Deal and Great Society initiatives, involving interpretations of the General Welfare, Commerce and Spending clauses that today’s (like yesterday’s) “constitutional conservatives” routinely deplore. Rand Paul’s campaign platform reflects the common Tea Party demand that the federal government be restricted to the specific enumerated powers spelled out in the Constitution. This constitutional fundamentalism, which appears to object to every expansion of federal power enacted since 1937, is made more explicit by Rand and Ron Paul’s friends in the Constitution Party, which forthrightly calls Social Security unconstitutional and demands that it be phased out immediately.

So: instead of challenging Rand Paul’s latest backtracking on the Civil Rights Act, or calling him racist, progressives would be better advised to corner him on his attitude towards the constitutionality of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which, like the Civil Rights Act, reflect functions of the federal government that are not explicitly enumerated in the Constitution.

Add in the fact that Rand Paul has been calling for an immediate balancing of the federal budget without tax cuts, which would require some drastic action on federal spending, and it becomes plain that his honest and principled (at least up until his flip-flop on the Civil Rights Act) efforts to apply “constitutional conservative” doctrines to current affairs imply policies that when spelled out would repel many, many voters — just like Goldwater’s platform in 1964.

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore

Rand Paul and the Constitution Party

Friday, May 21st, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

I don’t know how long it’s going to take before the past views and associations of new Republican superstar Rand Paul all come to light, but he’s currently on track to serve as the living link between all sorts of older forms of radical conservatism and the contemporary Tea Party movement. Indeed, it appears that his Lester Maddox-ish instincts about the supremacy of private property rights could be the least of his problems. Now it transpires that just last year he was guest speaker at an event held by the Constitution Party.

Now this is hardly a surprise, since his old man has long been friends with CP founder Howard Phillips, and endorsed that party’s presidential candidate in 2008. But most people don’t know much about the CP, which combines limited-government conservatism with the peculiar doctrines of Christian Reconstructionists, for which a simpler term is Theocrats. And no, I’m not using “Theocrats” as an insult, but as a technical description of what they support.

Here, right off the Constitution Party’s web page, are the opening words of its party platform:

The Constitution Party gratefully acknowledges the blessing of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ as Creator, Preserver and Ruler of the Universe and of these United States. We hereby appeal to Him for mercy, aid, comfort, guidance and the protection of His Providence as we work to restore and preserve these United States.This great nation was founded, not by religionists, but by Christians; not on religions but on the Gospel of Jesus Christ. For this very reason peoples of other faiths have been and are afforded asylum, prosperity, and freedom of worship here.

The goal of the Constitution Party is to restore American jurisprudence to its Biblical foundations and to limit the federal government to its Constitutional boundaries.

What the Constitution Party means by “Constitutional boundaries” is made clearer in the later sections of its platform, particularly this section:

Social Security is a form of individual welfare not authorized in the Constitution.The Constitution grants no authority to the federal government to administrate a Social Security system. The Constitution Party advocates phasing out the entire Social Security program, while continuing to meet the obligations already incurred under the system.

Do you suppose Rand Paul would like to go on Rachel Maddow’s show and discuss the constitutionality of Social Security or the Dominion of Jesus Christ and His Believers over the United States? Probably not. Theocracy and abolishing Social Security don’t poll well. And maybe he doesn’t actually believe this stuff, but simply enjoys the company of extremists.

But Paul does not have some sort of inherent right to pose as a victim when he own words and his own associations come back to haunt him. And I suspect we are just at the tip of that particular iceberg.

This item is cross-posted from The Democratic Strategist.

A Few Post-Primary Thoughts

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

I don’t have too much to add to J.P. Green’s analysis of the May 18 primaries. But here are a few thoughts:

  1. Blanche Lincoln failed to win without a runoff because she didn’t do nearly well enough in her old House district (the 1st, which is NE Arkansas) to offset a virtual drubbing in the 4th CD (southern Arkansas). She actually won Pulaski County (Little Rock), Bill Halter’s home town, very comfortably, and won throughout NW Arkansas. Since my own pre-primary analysis suggested that a large undecided African-American vote might be the key, it’s worth noting that the 4th and 1st districts have, respectively, the highest, 24 percent, and next highest, 19 percent, African-American population percentages. Without exit polls or precinct level data, it’s hard to say this is why Lincoln failed to win, but it looks like that might be the case, particularly since the black vote was tilting towards Halter in pre-primary polls. If so, this could be a danger sign for Halter in the runoff, since African-Americans traditionally don’t participate in southern runoff elections in anything like a proportionate manner. Otherwise, the runoff dynamics definitely favor the challenger, particularly if labor’s financial involvement on Halter’s behalf continues.
  2. The CW is that in Jack Conway KY Democrats nominated the stronger candidate against Rand Paul. That could well be true, though Dan Mongiardo’s regional strength in Eastern Kentucky, a traditionally Republican area where hard-core conservatives often struggle, might have posed some special problems for Paul.
  3. In retrospect, Arlen Specter’s long Senate career has been a continuing minor miracle. This is a guy who has managed over the course of decades to deeply alienate both liberals and conservatives, and he’s also known as one of the least attractive personalities in Washington, which is saying a lot. To survive after a party-switch would have been truly incredible.

This item is cross-posted from The Democratic Strategist.

Tuesday’s Primary Showdown

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Today is a major primary day, with Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Arkansas holding Senate primaries, and Oregon a gubernatorial primary.  I’ll deal with these by poll closing times: Kentucky at 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. EDT; Pennsylvania at 8 p.m. EDT; Arkansas at 8:30 p.m. EDT; and Oregon at 10 p.m. EDT.

In Kentucky, it looks like Rand Paul is very likely to win the GOP Senate nomination, beating Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the fair-hair child of the Bluegrass Republican establishment, and particularly of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.  Paul has been leading Grayson steadily in every recent poll, and the latest, from Magellan Strategies, shows Paul pulling away with a 55/30 lead.  Another recent poll, from PPP, shows that fully one-third of Kentucky Republicans think their party is “too liberal,” and it’s these voters who are fueling Paul’s surge.  Even though this is a closed primary and Paul is in many respects a conventional if extreme conservative, as indicated by the endorsements he received from Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint and James Dobson, expect to hear a lot of “Tea Party Insurgency!” hype when the results come in tonight.  Hype aside, Paul’s non-interventionist views on foreign policy, which are similar to his father’s, are unusual for a Republican politician, and it’s quite interesting that Grayson’s attacks on them didn’t gain much traction.

The Democratic Senate primary will likely provide the only real drama in Kentucky tonight, with polls indicating a close race between Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway.  Though Conway has been endorsed by MoveOn.org, the contest hasn’t been particularly ideological; both candidates oppose cap-and-trade legislation, and while Mongiardo has said he would have voted against health reform in the Senate, it’s because the bill “didn’t go far enough.”  Conway has had a significant financial edge, and seems to have some late momentum, but the geographical turnout patterns —Mongiardo is from Eastern Kentucky, while Conway is from Louisville — will probably determine the result.  Both candidates trail Paul in general election polls by a considerable margin.

Pennsylvania’s Democratic Senate primary is a genuine barn-burner, with party-switching incumbent Arlen Specter trying to hold off a late surge by Rep. Joe Sestak.  Every poll in the last week has shown Specter losing his relatively large lead over Sestak, as the challenger benefits both from the support of progressives who dislike Specter’s partisan background and from moderate-to-conservative Democrats who don’t like his social liberalism or his current pattern of staunch support for the Obama administration.  It is universally conceded that the race will all come down to turnout, with Specter—who is being backed not only by the Obama administration, the DSCC, and Gov. Ed Rendell’s organization, but also by most major unions—counting on a large turnout from Philadelphia, where he has a huge lead among African-Americans.  Both candidates have trailed Republican Pat Toomey in most polls, though Sestak’s general election numbers have been significantly improving recently.

The other Pennsylvania race drawing national attention has been the special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha.  It’s the classic Western PA white-working-class district: it’s been represented by Democrats since the New Deal, and was carried by both Al Gore and John Kerry, but not by Barack Obama.  Unsurprisingly, the most recent public polling, by PPP, showed a dead heat between Democrat Mark Critz and Republican Tim Burns.  A Democratic hold in this seat, widely expected to go Republican when Murtha died, would provide a real boost to Democratic morale.

In Arkansas, the marquee contest matches Lt. Gov. Bill Halter against Sen. Blanche Lincoln, but the race has almost been overshadowed by national interests.  Halter has strong backing from a variety of unions who are enraged by Lincoln’s flip-flop on the Employee Free Choice Act, while the incumbent, who chairs the Senate Agriculture Committee, has received massive backing from the agribusiness and financial industries. Millions are being spent on both sides on “independent” ads attacking one candidate or the other.  Lincoln is also being supported by the president and by former president Clinton.

Polls have consistently shown Lincoln leading Halter, but with less than 50 percent of the vote. If Lincoln or Halter is unable to win a majority of the votes, they will faceoff in a runoff election as required in Arkansas. There is a sizable undecided vote among African-Americans, who lean towards Halter, and Lincoln’s campaign has been running Obama and Clinton radio ads aimed at African-Americans.  Regional turnout will also be a big factor, with Lincoln expected to do well in the Delta region she used to represent in the House, and Halter expected to do well in Little Rock.  The contest could well serve as a lab experiment on the ancient proposition that undecided voters invariably turn against incumbents; if Lincoln gets a decent share of the undecided vote, she should win.

The Republican Senate primary is a low-profile affair with eight candidates, and it’s been generally assumed that Rep. John Boozman will win, probably without a runoff.  Boozman will be helped by geography: he represents northwest Arkansas, a heavily Republican area where turnout will be boosted by a highly competitive primary to choose his replacement in the House.  But two other candidates in the field, state senator Gilbert Baker, who is from central Arkansas, and former statewide candidate Jim Holt, a fiery Tea Party-style conservative who shares Boozman’s geographical base, could get enough support to force him into a runoff, particularly if voters respond to attacks on Boozman for supporting TARP.

Every poll taken this cycle has shown both Lincoln and Halter trailing every named Republican in general election trial heats.  The big question is whether Arkansas’ strong tradition of voting Democratic downballot even when support for the national party is weak is finally expiring as it has in other parts of the Deep South.

In Oregon, limited polling predicts that former Gov. John Kitzhaber will easily win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination over former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury.  His Republican opponent is expected to be former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley, but don’t be surprised if conservative Allen Alley pulls an upset, as one late poll suggests is possible.

Finally, in non-primary political news, a major brouhaha has broken out in Connecticut, where Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who was the heavy favorite to hold onto Chris Dodd’s Senate seat in November, was the subject of a big New York Times story (fed by one of his Republican rivals) revealing that he has on at least one occasion referred to himself as a veteran of the Vietnam War. It turns out that he’s not; he served in the Marine Reserves during that war, but never deployed.  At the moment, the DSCC is standing by Blumenthal, but Connecticut Democrats do have the option of choosing another candidate in their state convention, which will be held this weekend.

Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.

McDonnell’s Political Travails: Living & Dying by the Sword

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010
Mike Signer



Mike Signer is a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute.

by Mike Signer

The following is an excerpt from Mike Signer’s op-ed in today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch:

Bob McDonnell’s recent troubles have surprised me; when I first met McDonnell three years ago, I found him both thoughtful and careful — traits in scarce evidence today.

In January 2007, McDonnell keynoted a panel at the University of Richmond about a law review article I had written on the conflicts between governors and separately elected attorneys general. As deputy counselor to Gov. Mark Warner, I had been deeply troubled by the aggressive, ideological lawyers in then-Attorney General Jerry Kilgore’s office, who constantly challenged our positions. In an article for the University of Richmond Law Review, I proposed that Virginia allow governors, rather than attorneys general, to direct the legal strategy of state agencies.

McDonnell had been elected attorney general just a year before. Initially, his election seemed like a recipe for only more conflict between another Republican attorney general and Democratic governor. Yet while he’d planted a conservative flag or two, McDonnell had also studiously avoided legal and policy conflicts with the new Democratic governor, Tim Kaine.

I hadn’t met McDonnell before and was curious about what he’d be like. From the moment he shook my hand and gave me a warm smile, I found him both personable and thoughtful. When he got behind the podium, he worked through my argument carefully. He cordially disagreed with my proposal, explaining that his very different approach from Kilgore meant a mandatory remedy was unnecessary. Like good Virginian gentlemen, we agreed to disagree.

Fast forward to today. In a few short weeks, Gov. McDonnell has abandoned his hallmark restraint and instead whipsawed all over the political map, delivering incoherent and incompetent governance in the process. Both Democrats and Republicans would do well to learn from McDonnell’s disastrous first 100 days.

Read the full column at the Times-Dispatch.

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore

“About” Race

Thursday, April 1st, 2010
Ed Kilgore



Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

A perennial issue that’s been bubbling up a lot since the rise of Barack Obama has been whether and when it’s fair for progressives to suspect racial motives in conservative political appeals. Obama’s race has made the subject pretty much unavoidable, but the special ferocity of conservative reactions to Obama’s candidacy, presidency and policies has raised the possibility that something a bit unusual is going on. But if the subject ever comes up, conservatives now angrily accuse their accusers of “playing the race card,” as though the issue is by definition illegitimate or demagogic.

Frank Rich of the New York Times stirred up the latest contretemps with a column that suggested the heat behind much of the grassroots anger towards Obama comes at least in part from “fears of disenfranchisement among a dwindling and threatened minority in the country” — e.g., white men. At RealClearPolitics, a noted analyst of and sometimes advocate for the political views of white men, David Paul Kuhn, issued a response that accused not only Rich but “liberal elites” of perpetually playing the race card in order to ignore or dismiss legitimate discontent with liberal policies.

I have no interest in adjudicating the Rich/Kuhn dispute, other than to say that Rich is clearly imprecise in his attribution of semi-racist motives to conservatives, and that Kuhn trumps that mistake by pretending that Rich has accused every single white person who doesn’t approve of Obama’s job performance of being a racist.

I am interested in Kuhn’s broader argument, which is pretty characteristic of conservative “race card” rhetoric. His standard on this subject seems to be that if there is any possible non-racial motive for a political posture, then it’s irresponsible to impute any racial motives, not just today, but in the past:

For decades, leading liberals explained white concerns about urban upheaval, crime, welfare, school busing, affirmative action and more recently, illegal immigration, as rooted in racism. Not safer streets or safer schools. Not concern about taxes for welfare, as working class whites (like all races) struggled in their hardscrabble lives. Not regular men who never knew “white male privilege” but were on the losing end of affirmative action (recall Frank Ricci). Not job competition or economic class. Instead, leading liberals constantly saw the color of the issue as the only issue.

I don’t know which “leading liberals” he’s talking about, but generally speaking, that’s just not true. “Liberals” have typically viewed conservative appeals on issues like crime, welfare, busing, affirmative action, welfare and immigration as designed to play on both racial and non-racial fears and concerns. Kuhn, however, seems to think so long as there is an available non-racial motive for a “concern,” then examining possible racial motives is out of bounds. It’s got to be one thing or another — all race, or all something more noble-sounding or at least less disreputable.

It doesn’t take a lot of deep thinking, or “liberalism,” for that matter, to understand the folly of this approach. Self-conscious, highly-motivated racists do not often proclaim their racism these days, precisely because it is disreputable and does not win friends or influence people. And even back when open racism was more common, racists often denied racism as a primary motive (viz., Confederate and neo-Confederate claims that secession was not “about” slavery, but about states’ rights, constitutional protections for private property, southern “culture,” anti-capitalism, or regional honor — anything other than the ownership of other human beings). And during the more recent period of southern resistance to civil rights, which I experienced personally, and whose constitutional “theories” have been so avidly seized upon by many of today’s conservative activists, you didn’t hear much talk about segregation as a means of subjecting black folk as inferior. It was all about “racial peace,” and “the southern way of life,” and again, state’s rights and constitutional protections for private property. And it didn’t fool a soul.

If David Paul Kuhn really believes that antagonism to busing, affirmative action, welfare and immigration did not have any racial content, or that conservative appeals on these issues (which, as far back as George Wallace’s 1968 presidential campaign, always avoided overt racial language) did not count on racial resentment as one factor for their success, he’s living in a land innocent of actual experience with human beings.

If he doesn’t believe that, and has at least one foot in the real world where racial motives coincide with others, then the issue is not some sweeping effort to delegitimize the “race card,” but an examination of when political appeals cross the line into deliberate efforts to promote white racial resentment.

I’d say, for example, that the strange centrality of the (now-defunct) inner-city advocacy group ACORN in recent conservative demonology is hard to understand as anything other than a deliberate dog whistle to racist sentiments. According to an awful lot of right-wing rhetoric, ACORN’s housing advocacy for poor and mainly black people helped create the mortgage finance crisis, which led to the financial collapse, which in turn led to demands by poor and minority people for relief, which then led to a wholesale socialist agenda, promoted by a black politician who worked with ACORN in Chicago, who counted on ACORN-secured fradulent votes for his election. Elements of this ACORN Derangement Syndrome made it into McCain-Palin campaign ads and speeches, and also fed the Republican-led drive in Congress to “defund ACORN” last year. Polls have shown a remarkable degree of rank-and-file Republican fixation on ACORN.

Is it possible to believe or promote these preposterous things about ACORN’s vast and sinister influence while being innocent of racial motives? I guess so, but it’s most unlikely, given the organization’s inner-city focus, inner-city staffing and inner-city clientele. Why pick ACORN as the center of this conspiracy if you don’t want to paint it black? Beats me.

A closer call is the return of conservative “anti-welfare” rhetoric, generally abandoned after the 1996 national welfare reform law. It popped up first in Republican (and McCain) attacks on Obama’s campaign proposals (particularly for an increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit for the working poor), and then during the health reform fight. Recent conservative discussion of the the EITC as “welfare,” enabling people to vote for more benefits without paying taxes (not really true, since working poor families still pay heavily regressive federal payroll taxes), has been interesting because that rhetoric was rebuked by none other than George W. Bush when Tom DeLay raised it back in 1999. Combined with the “welfare queen” treatment of minority families who supposedly took out mortgages they couldn’t afford, triggering the mortgage crisis, the 2008 “anti-welfare” rhetoric sure looked suspiciously racial. And there’s nothing illegitimate, either, about wondering if the “undeserved” beneficiaries of mortgage relief or health care benefits might look a little dusky in the eyes of resentful middle-class voters who are being encouraged to oppose this sort of socialist looting.

The bottom line is that anti-Obama appeals aren’t just “about” race, but it’s naive to think they are just “about” everything else. He is, after all, the living embodiment of the elite-underclass “liberal alliance” that conservatives have been warning white middle-class folks about for several decades now. At an absolute minimum, conservatives ought to accept responsibility for the racial sentiments their rhetoric can sometimes stimulate, and try to avoid such appeals, instead of simply intoning “race card” and trying to shut down any discussion of the subject.

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.

Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/andrewaliferis/ / CC BY-ND 2.0