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Jan Brewer ’
Tuesday, September 28th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
With five weeks to go until Election Day, the national political environment seems to have stabilized enough to conduct some regional analysis of what’s likely to happen on November 2. Let’s start today with the West, where highly competitive gubernatorial and Senate contests are occurring in at least seven states.
Much of the Pacific Coast seems relatively impervious to the Tea Party movement. In California, hard-core conservative activist Chuck DeVore finished a relatively poor third in the Republican Senate primary, and gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner, who tried to run to the right of Meg Whitman, was beaten badly. Conservatives could not even mount a strong challenge to the much-derided RINO, Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado. In Washington state, another TP favorite, former pro football player Clint Didier, barely broke double figure percentages in a Senate Republican primary challenge to Dino Rossi. And in the same state, one of the more moderate new House candidates in the country, Jaime Herrera, won her primary easily. Alaska, of course, is the exception on the coast, since its long-powerful conservative movement knocked off Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is now running as a write-in candidate in the general election.
In any event, Republicans have at best mixed prospects for major gains on the Pacific coast. In CA, recent polls have given Barbara Boxer a significant lead over Carly Fiorina for the Senate seat, and despite Meg Whitman’s unprecedented spending, Jerry Brown is at worst tied with her as he begins his own media campaign in the governor’s race. Republicans have a realistic shot at just one Democratic House seat in California, and Democrats are sure to hang onto control of both chambers in the state legislature.
In Washington state, Patty Murray appears to be opening up a modest but consistent lead over Rossi, who led her in some early polls. While Herrera has a good shot at picking up an open Democratic House seat, only one incumbent Democrat, Rick Hansen, seems to be in jeopardy. In Oregon, former Gov. John Kitzhaber is in a close race with Republican Chris Dudley for the governorship.
In Hawaii, Democrats have a better than even chance of flipping control of the governorship, with former congressman Neil Abercrombie a solid favorite over Lt. Gov. Duke Aoina, and of retaking Abercrombie’s House seat, which was lost in a special election earlier this year thanks to multiple Democratic candidates.
In Alaska, Democratic Senate candidate Scott McAdams remains underfunded and little-known; his fate almost certainly depends on the viability of Murkowski’s write-in campaign down the stretch.
Moving eastward from the Pacific, Colorado is another hotly disputed state. Tea Party favorite Ken Buck has been leading Sen. Michael Bennet in early general election polls, but this race is likely to tighten up. John Hickenlooper is almost certain to hold the governorship for Democrats thanks to the conservative split between Republican nominee Don Maes and former congressman Tom Tancredo, who is running on the Constitution Party ballot. Republicans think they have a shot at taking two Democratic House seats, though their best chance is against freshman congresswoman Betsy Markey. Turning south to New Mexico, Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez has recently taken a steady lead in the polls against Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who once looked invincible, and two Democratic House members, Harry Teague and Martin Heinrich, in some peril. In Arizona, Sen. John McCain and Gov. Jan Brewer look safe to hold onto their seats for the GOP, and though Republicans have visions of picking up as many as three House seats, all three Democrats—Gabby Giffords, Anne Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell, are in reasonably strong condition.
Finally, in Nevada, one of the top national races looks almost certain to go right down to the wire, with Sen. Harry Reid and Tea Party champion Sharron Angle running neck and neck in virtually every post-primary poll. Reid would probably be doomed against any other Republican opponent, but Angle’s long history of eccentric issue positions has given him a new lease on life.
All in all, the West could prove to be a national bellwether. A true Republican tsunami in the region could produce a net gain of four Senate seats (Washington, California, Colorado and Nevada), two governorships (Oregon and New Mexico), and nine House seats. On the other hand, a stronger-than-expected Democratic performance could keep Republicans from gaining any net Senate seats, and could actually give Democrats a net gain of one gubernatorial seat (Wyoming looks to be a certain Republican gubernatorial pickup, but that could be offset by a Jerry Brown win in California and an Abercrombie win in Hawaii). None of the Western House races in which Republicans now look strong is a slam-dunk.
One regional factor that use to bedevil strategists is now of declining importance: the hope or fear that early returns from the eastern and central times zones could influence final turnout in very close races. That’s because voting by mail is increasingly important in the West, with all ballots in OR and WA; most in Colorado; and over half in California, now being cast by mail. The dominance of voting by mail will also significantly limit the impact of very late campaign activity in many states. If Meg Whitman’s going to hit her target of spending $150 million in personal funds in the CA gubernatorial race, she’ll probably hit it well before November 2.
Photo credit: Michael R. Swigart
Arizona
Tags: Abel Maldonado, Alaska, Anne Kirkpatrick, Arizona, Barbara Boxer, Betsy Markey, California, Campaigns and elections, Carly Fiorina, Chris Dudley, Chuck DeVore, Clint Didier, Colorado, conservatives, Constitution Party, Diane Denish, Dino Rossi, Don Maes, Duke Aoina, Election Day, Gabby Giffords, GOP, Harry Mitchell, Harry Reid, Harry Teague, Hawaii, Jaime Herrera, Jan Brewer, Jerry Brown, John Hickenlooper, John Kitzhaber, John McCain, Ken Buck, Lisa Murkowski, Martin Heinrich, Meg Whitman, Michael Bennet, Mid-Term Elections, moderate, Neil Abercrombie, Nevada, New Mexico, November 2, Oregon, Pacific Coast, Patty Murray, Republican Party, Republican Senate primary, Republican tsunami, Rick Hansen, RINO, Scott McAdams, Sharron Angle, Steve Poizner, Susana Martinez, Tea Party, Tom Tancredo, Washington state, Wyoming
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Friday, August 27th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Tuesday’s five-state primary/runoff extravaganza produced plenty of drama, several close races, and a few surprises — especially in Alaska’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, where former judge Joe Miller, endorsed by Sarah Palin and fueled by the Tea Party Express, ran slightly ahead of incumbent Lisa Murkowski despite being heavily outspent.
With absentee and provisional ballots still pending, Miller leads by 1668 votes. His campaign appears to have benefitted a great deal from turnout patterns affected by an anti-abortion ballot initiative. If she ultimately loses the GOP nomination, Murkowski could possibly run as the candidate of the Libertarian Party, giving Democrat Scott McAdams a chance.
In a less dramatic outcome, in Arizona, John McCain easily brushed off J.D. Hayworth’s once-fearsome challenge, and Gov. Jan Brewer (R) won with little trouble. GOP House primaries in AZ were a bit more turbulent. In AZ-3, Ben Quayle, son of yes-that-Quayle, overcame involvement in an off-color internet site to win an open seat nomination over a crowded field. In AZ-8, represented by Democrat Gabby Giffords, the GOP primary was won by Tea Party favorite Jesse Kelly over front-runner Jonathan Paton in a mild upset.
In Oklahoma, two Republican congressional runoffs were held. In OK-2, veterinarian Charles Thompson won a low-profile primary to face Blue Dog Democrat Dan Boren. The national GOP will now decide whether to give Thompson a lift by making this a targeted race. In OK-5, church camp director James Lankford won a surprisingly large win over Club for Growth candidate Kevin Calvey (who appears to have gone too negative) for an open Republican seat.
In Vermont, the Democratic gubernatorial contest seems to be ending as it began: close and civil. Final but unofficial returns showed state senate president pro tem Peter Shumlin edging former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz for the right to take on Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R). There’s a chance of a recount, but the candidates have already had a unity rally.
There wasn’t much civility down in Florida, however, where the Republican gubernatorial primary was won by wealthy “conservative outsider” Rick Scott, who will carry his extensive baggage into a three-way general election battle with Democrat Alex Sink and independent Bud Chiles.
Scott’s bitterly disappointed opponent, Attorney General Bill McCollum, has suggested he might endorse Sink. Meanwhile, Scott’s Democratic doppelganger, billionaire investor Jeff Greene, did not do so well in the Senate primary; congressman Kendrick Meek beat him easily. (Over at pollster.com, Mark Blumenthal has a good analysis of the challenges Meek will face in the general election).
In highly competitive FL House primaries, 2nd district Blue Dog Alan Boyd narrowly turned back a surprisingly strong challenge from state senate minority leader Al Lawson. 8th district Democrat Alan Grayson, who’s painted a bullseye on his own back with chronic conservative-baiting comments, will face former state senator majority leader Daniel Webster (R). And another vulnerable Democrat, 24th district congresswoman Susan Kosmas, will face state legislator Sandy Adams, who won a fractious primary dominated by fights between Karen Diebel and Craig Miller.
On Saturday, Louisiana will hold its congressional primary, with three Republicans battling for the 3rd district nomination, an open seat being vacated by Democrat Charlie Melancon, who is running for the Senate. In the 2nd district, four Democrats are fighting for the chance to take on one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the House, Joseph Cao.
Meanwhile, also on Saturday, West Virginia is holding its special Senate primary, with Gov. Joe Manchin sure to win the Democratic nod in this sleepy contest, and the late Robert Byrd’s 2008 opponent, John Raese, likely to win the Republican nomination.
We’ll then have a brief break in the primary calendar until September 14, when no less than seven states, plus the District of Columbia, hold their nominating contests.
Photo Credit: hlkljgk‘s Photostream
Tags: Al Lawson, Alan Boyd, Alan Grayson, Alex Sink, Ben Quayle, Bill McCollum, Brian Dubie, Bud Chiles, Charles Thompson, Charlie Melancon, Craig Miller, Dan Boren, Daniel Webster, Deb Markowitz, Doug Racine, Gabby Giffords, J.D. Hayworth, James Lankford, Jan Brewer, Jeff Greene, Jesse Kelly, Joe Manchin, John McCain, John Raese, Joseph Cao, Karen Diebel, Kendrick Meek, Kevin Calvey, Lisa Murkowski, Mark Blumenthal, Peter Shumlin, Rick Scott, Sandy Adams, Sarah Palin, Scott McAdams, Susan Kosmas
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Tuesday, August 24th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Today’s primaries range from dogs that didn’t bark—AZ GOP Senate and gubernatorial primaries that turned into snoozers—to noisy kennels of nastiness in Florida.
Florida
Florida’s Democratic Senate and Republican gubernatorial primaries were originally supposed to be snoozers, with Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) expected to win the former and Attorney General (and former congressman) Bill McCollum (R) expected to win the latter without a whole lot of trouble. Then, near the end of the qualifying period, billionaire investor Jeff Greene jumped into the Democratic Senate primary while multi-millionaire (his net worth is estimated at $218 million) former hospital exec and anti-health-reform lobbyist Rick Scott (R) jumped into the gubernatorial primary. Nothing’s been the same since then.
In a remarkably short period of time, Scott has shattered every Florida political spending record, pouring $39 million of personal money and another $11 million of his wife’s money (channeled through an “independent” 527 group that’s been attacking McCollum) into the race. From the get-go, he identified himself as a Tea Party-friendly “outsider” taking on the corrupt status quo in Tallahassee, as symbolized by McCollum, who spent twenty years in Congress and lost two Senate races before becoming AG.
For a while, it looked like McCollum was toast, but he fought back with his own nasty-grams calling attention to the $1.7 billion fines for Medicare fraud paid out by the HCA-Columbia hospital chain for billings during Scott’s tenure as CEO. The party stalwart has been helped by endorsements from Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, not to mention a 527 group of his own that collected about $9 million from every conservative interest group in the state.
Several late polls have shown McCollum pulling ahead of Scott, even as both candidates’ rising negatives have enabled Democrat Alex Sink to pull ahead of both of them in a hypothetical three-way November race with independent Bud Chiles.
Meanwhile, a similar but even more dramatic dynamic has occurred in the Democratic Senate race. Greene (whose original strategist was none other than Joe Trippi, who left the campaign just a few weeks ago, to be replaced by another famous name, Tad Devine) sprinted into a quick lead over Meek after heavy advertising identifying himself as a can-do businessman “outsider.” But then details about how Greene got rich betting on a housing market collapse, and more luridly, about Greene’s alleged playboy antics, sometimes in the company of BFF Mike Tyson, started to come out, and Meek has retaken the lead rather decisively.
Greene fought back with attacks on Meek and his mother, former congresswoman Carrie Meek, for alleged corruption, and on Meek for supposedly not being sufficiently supportive of Israel, but other than contributing to the already low tone of the primary season, they haven’t had a major impact. Buttressed by endorsements from both President Obama and former president Bill Clinton, Meek has opened up sizable leads in all the late polls, and if this holds, he can move on to worrying about how to keep Democrats from supporting independent candidate Charlie Crist.
Vermont
There’s a different political atmosphere up in Vermont, where Democrats are holding a highly competitive but very civil five-way primary to choose a candidate for governor. The two early favorites were Secretary of State Deb Markowitz (a long-time self-identified New Democrat) and former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine (a favorite of unions and liberal activists), but once incumbent Republican governor Jim Douglas announced his retirement, other strong candidacies appeared, including state senator Peter Shulman, credited with a key role in passage of Vermont’s gay marriage statute; former state senator Matt Dunne, who’s run the national VISTA program and also served as a Google exec; and state senator Susan Bartlett, who’s challenging Markowitz for the votes of centrists.
Though there’s been no public polling in the race, it looks like a dead heat among Markowitz, Shulman, Racine and Dunne, with turnout (expected to be quite low thanks to the vacation season timing) a crucial factor. The winner will face Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R), who has no primary opposition, and who has positioned himself somewhat to the right of the incumbent Douglas. Vermont represents a prime “takeback” state for Democrats, though Dubie led all the Democrats in a June Rasmussen poll.
Arizona
Over in Arizona, John McCain’s pulled far in front of once-feared challenger J.D. Hayworth, thanks to a combination of heavy spending, shifts to the right on policy issues, and Hayworth gaffes. Meanwhile, Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, once considered a caretaker sure to lose a primary, has been turned into a national conservative celebrity by her signature on the state’s new immigration law, and will win easily.
Alaska
Up in Alaska, Sarah Palin’s risked her home-state reputation with a late effort on behalf of former judge Joe Miller, who is challenging Sen. Lisa Murkowski. There’s no love lost between Palin and Murkowski, whose father Palin defeated in a primary to become governor in 2006. But Murkowski has a huge financial advantage, and despite occasional ideological heresies, should win.
Oklahoma
And down in Oklahoma, a low-turnout runoff will decide two Republican congressional nominations, including the challenge to Blue Dog Democrat Dan Boren, who has tons of money but is theoretically vulnerable in a conservative district.
Tags: Alex Sink, Bill McCollum, Brian Dubie, Carrie Meek, Charlie Crist, Dan Boren, Deb Markowitz, Doug Racine, J.D. Hayworth, Jan Brewer, Jeff Greene, Jim Douglas, Joe Miller, John McCain, Kendrick Meek, Lisa Murkowski, Matt Dunne, Peter Shulman, Rick Scott, Susan Bartlett
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Tuesday, July 27th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Today’s primary election is in Oklahoma. Both parties have interesting gubernatorial contests, while Democrats have one congressional primary of national interest and Republicans have two.
Oklahoma is a “runoff state,” where majorities are required for party nominations (runoffs will be held on August 24). It’s also a closed primary state. 49 percent of Oklahomans are currently registered as Democrats, and 40 percent as Republicans, though Republican turnout could wind up higher thanks to a surplus of competitive races.
The current governor, Democrat Brad Henry, is term-limited, and the two Democratic political heavyweights who are competing to succeed him are generally in the moderate-conservative tradition he exemplifies. The frontrunner from the beginning has been longtime (1995-present) Attorney General Drew Edmondson, an Okie from Muscogee who is the latest representative of a distinguished political family. Edmondson raised the hackles of conservatives this year by refusing to join the multi-state Attorney General lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of health reform. But he also has been endorsed by the NRA. His opponent, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, has managed to more or less keep up with the well—financed Edmondson on the money front (in part through a large personal loan to her campaign), and sports a slightly better performance in general election trial heats. One survey suggests that Edmondson is doing a lot better than Askins among strong Obama supporters, union members, and minority voters; in a low-turnout primary that could matter a lot. But in this unusually civil race, the main divide has been geographical: Edmondson is doing very well in the vote-heavy Tulsa area, while Askins’ base is in the more Republican southwest Oklahoma region. Askins’ final ace-in-the-hold is a late endorsement by former Oklahoma Sooners’ football coach Barry Switzer, a huge celebrity in the state; a similar Switzer endorsement is thought to have contributed mightily to Brad Henry’s late surge in 2002.
The polling in this race has shown Edmondson with a marginal lead, however, many of the voters are still undecided. The final Sooner Poll shows Edmondson up 49-33; the final Sooner Survey poll has a much larger undecided vote, with Edmondson leading 38-27. There is no third candidate, so there will be no runoff.
On the Republican side, the gubernatorial primary initially looked like a classic showdown between an “establishment” (if very conservative) officeholder, Congresswoman Mary Fallin, and Tea Party activist state senator Randy Brogdon. Fallin, a fixture in Oklahoma politics (she was Lt. Gov. from 1995-2007 before winning election to the House), voted for TARP. But aside from maintaining a large financial advantage (about 4-1), Fallin worked hard to line up national “validators” of her conservatism, winning endorsements from Sarah Palin, Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty and the latest conservative celebrity, Jan Brewer. And it’s thought that Brodgon went a little over the top in accusing Fallin of corruption.
In any event, polls show Fallin poised to win without a runoff. The final Sooner Poll has her up over Brogdon 56-18; the Sooner Survey puts her lead at 50-22. With two minor candidates in the field, Brogdon could theoretically force Fallin into a runoff, but it’s unlikely. His best hope is very low turnout and a good showing in his Tulsa base.
There’s a red-hot Republican primary to succeed Fallin in the House, and a late Sooner Poll shows the long-time front-runner, former state legislator Kevin Calvey running first with 28%, though political newcomer and “conservative outsider” James Lankford is moving up very fast. A runoff between the two is the most likely outcome.
The other congressional district with a lot of activity today is the 2nd district, where Blue Dog Democrat Dan Boren (son of former U.S. Senator and current University of Oklahoma president David Boren) has attracted both a primary challenge and a large field of Republican opponents. Boren’s primary opponent, state senator Jim Wilson, has attracted a lot of national netroots support for his criticism of Boren’s conservative voting record, but unfortunately for him, not much money. Boren should win handily. There are six Republicans vying for the nomination in the 2nd, and though this is a nationally targeted race for the GOP, their candidates here are little known and underfunded. A Republican runoff is very probable, though it’s anybody’s guess who will be in it (businessman Howard Houchen is the best-funded).
Despite the Democratic registration advantage, Republicans control both chambers of the Oklahoma legislature, both Senate seats, and four of five House seats. If they can win back the governorship after eight years of Democratic control, and somehow knock off Boren, this would solidify their domination of Oklahoma politics. But Boren’s generally considered a heavy favorite for November, and both Edmondson and Askins are within single digits of Fallin in general election polling.
Looking Forward
Next up on the primary calendar are Kansas, Michigan and Missouri on August 3, and Tennessee on August 5. It’s been an interesting week in Tennessee’s highly competitive Republican gubernatorial primary. Congressman Zach Wamp got some unwanted national attention after suggesting that the Volunteer State might have to secede from the Union if health reform is not repealed. He later retracted the threat, but vowed to fight the feds tooth and nail through steps short of armed rebellion. And then another major candidate, Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, in response to right-wing angst over the construction of an Islamic community center in Murfreesboro, allowed as how he wasn’t sure the First Amendment applied to Muslims since Islam may not be a religion, but instead a “nationality, way of life or cult.”
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Photo Credit: Adamr.stone’s Photostream
Tags: Barry Switzer, Brad Henry, Dan Boren, David Boren, Democrats, Drew Edmondson, Howard Houchen, James Lankford, Jan Brewer, Jari Askins, Jeb Bush, Jim Wilson, Kevin Calvey, Mary Fallin, Primaries, Randy Brogdon, republicans, Ron Ramsey, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Zach Wamp
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Friday, July 23rd, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
I won’t go through the all the results for Tuesday’s Georgia primary, since an earlier P-Fix post covered the basics. But I will mention a few details that I omitted in the quick piece I did on Wednesday.
In the gubernatorial contest, while Democrat Roy Barnes looks highly competitive for the general election (particularly if the Republican runoff gets as nasty as it looks like it may), it’s worth noting that turnout for the GOP primary was just under 700,000, while turnout for the Democratic side was just under 400,000. While turnout in both parties was terrible, and some of the disparity was attributable to the more competitive nature of the GOP battle (and the attendant television ads), it’s a reminder that this state which didn’t have a Republican governor from the early days of Reconstruction until 2002 now has a decided red tint. To win, Barnes will need to run a very good campaign (he’s certainly reconfirmed his reputation as an outstanding fundraiser), while taking advantage of the opportunities the GOP has created in eight years of lackluster governance of the state, and in the extremism of the primary messages of its candidates this year. If Barnes does win, he would interrupt what would otherwise certainly be a blatant Republican gerrymandering effort, made all the worse by Georgia’s acquisition of an additional congressional district.
A second observation is that this is one GOP primary where geography seemed to matter more than ideology or the association of this or that candidate with the Tea Party or some national conservative figure. I’ve posted a fairly elaborate analysis of this topic at FiveThirtyEight, but suffice it to say that Karen Handel finished first more because she is from vote-rich metro Atlanta than because she was endorsed by Jan Brewer and Sarah Palin. The endorsements definitely helped her overcome a financial deficit by generating free media, but in the end half the primary vote was cast in her base region, and that was the most important difference. And that’s also why she has to be considered a heavy favorite in the runoff, since her opponent, Nathan Deal, did well only in his north Georgia base, which provides a much smaller segment of the GOP vote. It’s a measure of the importance of geography that Handel trounced Deal in the Atlanta suburb of Cobb County, home of Deal’s padrone, Newt Gingrich.
Perhaps because of this disadvantage, Deal looks likely to spend the three-week runoff attacking Handel for insufficient conservatism, which won’t be easy given her Palin association and her own harsh record on issues ranging from taxes (she wants to abolish the state income taxes and rely instead on regressive consumption taxes to finance state government) to immigration (as Secretary of State, she initiated a harsh voter ID system that ensnared a good many native citizen voters on primary day). So far Deal has mainly pounded Handel for supporting a rape-and-incest exception to an abortion ban, which used to be an acceptable conservative position, and for making a small contribution to the Log Cabin Republicans back when she was running for office in culturally tolerant Fulton County (Atlanta). Since Handel’s main attack line on Deal has involved ethics allegations, this could be a truly nasty culture-war dominated runoff that could drive up both candidates’ negatives.
In terms of the congressional races, there will be four Republican runoffs on August 10, two in safe Republican districts, one in a safe Democratic district, and one to choose an opponent for theoretically vulnerable Democrat John Barrow (D-GA) (though he is likely to have a big financial advantage and Barack Obama carried his district).
Down-ballot, there will be a highly contentious Republican runoff for Attorney General that could boost statewide turnout. And though it’s not directly connected to the primaries, the general election will be complicated by the fact that outgoing GOP Gov. Sonny Perdue is backing an independent candidate for State School Superintendent because the Republican nominee opposes accepting Race to the Top dollars.
The next primary is in Oklahoma on July 27, where there are competitive gubernatorial contests in both parties.
In polling news, PPP has had some interesting assessments of the Florida governor’s race. The late but free-spending entry of controversial former hospital executive and health reform opponent Rick Scott in the GOP contest has upset a lot of apple carts. A primary survey shows Scott beating long-time front-runner and party warhorse Bill McCollum 43-29, mainly by driving McCollum’s approval ratio among Florida Republicans to a dismal 26-40. But a general election poll shows Democrat Alex Sink beating either Republican (along with independent candidate Bud Chiles). And in the general electorate, Scott’s approval ratio is 23-41 and McCollum’s a truly disastrous 16-51. Like Georgia, this is a state where a Democratic gubernatorial victory could have major implications for redistricting.
In non-candidate polling news, Mark Blumenthal of pollster.com has a solid and very thorough critique of the new Politico “Power and the People” surveys by Mark Penn comparing the views of Americans generally with those of “D.C. Elites.”
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Photo credit: Chuck “Caveman” Coker’s Photostream
Tags: Alex Sink, Atlanta, Barack Obama, Bill McCollum, Bud Chiles, Campaigns and elections, Democratic Party, FiveThirtyEight, Florida, Georgia, GOP, Jan Brewer, John Barrow, Karen Handel, Mark Blumenthal, Mark Penn, Nathan Deal, Newt Gingrich, Oklahoma, Politics and politicians, Republican Party, Rick Scott, Roy Barnes, Sarah Palin, Sonny Perdue
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Friday, July 16th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
As alert readers know by now, Robert Bentley won the Republican gubernatorial runoff in Alabama, with Terri Sewell winning the 7th district Democratic congressional nomination (tantamount to election), and Martha Roby turning back viral ad icon Rick Barber for the Republican nomination in the 2nd congressional district. My write-up of the results can be found here.
The next big primary state is Georgia, where voters go to the polls next Tuesday, July 20. There are competitive primaries for governor in both parties; and competitive Republican primaries for Congress in no fewer than six districts, with two Democratic congressional primaries that have drawn some attention. Georgia has a 50 percent nomination requirement, which means many contests will go to a runoff on August 10. This is also a state with a history of substantial early voting, though as of last week, mail-in and in-person ballots were down from prior elections, perhaps indicating a low turnout.
The Republican gubernatorial race (incumbent Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue is term-limited) has heated up in the last week, with a bunch of polls, sharp exchanges between candidates, and interventions by national figures. For most of the cycle, the front-runner has been State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, though he’s been considered vulnerable because of long-pending ethics investigations of alleged illegal contributions to his campaign by insurance companies. Three other candidates—former Secretary of State Karen Handel, former congressman Nathan Deal (who has some ethics issues of his own, which appeared to speed his departure from Congress), and state senator Eric Johnson—have been jockeying for a runoff position opposite Oxendine, though at least two polls now show the front-runner slipping into third place. Handel, whose campaign message closely resembles that of South Carolina gubernatorial nominee Nikki Haley (a “conservative reformer” fighting the “corrupt good old boys”), has been the candidate on the move of late, and got priceless attention this week from a Facebook endorsement by Sarah Palin. Deal countered with an endorsement from Georgian Newt Gingrich. Both Oxendine and Deal have been pounding Handel for alleged heresy on abortion and gay rights. And meanwhile, Johnson has been heavily running television ads, and has moved up into the teens in at least one poll. In other words, just about anything could happen on Tuesday, though Handel looks almost sure to have a runoff spot.
In terms of issues, all the GOP candidates have been competing to show avid support for an Arizona-style illegal immigration crackdown (Deal’s made this a signature issue, while Handel has sported an endorsement from Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer), and two candidates, Oxendine and Handel, have proposed abolition of the state’s income tax, reflecting the wild popularity of national “Fair Tax” proposals among Georgia Republicans. And all the candidates are hard-core conservatives on cultural issues, though Handel got into a fight with Georgia Right-to-Life by opposing its proposal to restrict IV fertilization procedures.
On the Democratic side, the big question all along has been whether former Gov. Roy Barnes, who lost to Perdue in a big upset eight years ago, can win the primary without a runoff, as most recent polls have suggested he will. Barnes’ most prominent challenger, Attorney General Thurbert Baker, got off to a very late start in television advertising, and is now trying to attract enough support from his fellow African-Americans to deny Barnes the win (African-Americans typically cast close to half the votes in Democratic primaries in Georgia). Baker got a significant boost earlier this week with an endorsement from President Bill Clinton (Baker was a big Human Rights Campaign supporter in 2008), and has been promoting legalization of electronic bingo as a way to raise money for K-12 education. But Barnes has strong African-American support of his own; just today he was endorsed by Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed. Other significant candidates who could soak up some votes include former Secretary of State David Poythress, who’s been running an under-the-radar web-focused campaign, and former state House Democratic leader Dubose Porter, whose wife, Carol, is the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor.
On the congressional front, the state’s two white (and Blue Doggy) Democratic House members, Jim Marshall and John Barrow, are as usual considered vulnerable in November. Marshall, whose district went solidly for John McCain, has drawn a strong opponent in state representative Scott Austin, who should win the GOP nomination easily on Tuesday. Barrow, whose district is marginally Democratic even in presidential years, has for the second time drawn a primary challenge from former state representative Regina Thomas, whom he beat 3-1 in 2008. Thomas got some help from in-district anger at Barrow’s vote against health care reform, but his massive financial advantage should get him over the line. Meanwhile, Tea Party-backed candidate Ray McKinney is favored over former fire chief Carl Smith for the right to oppose Barrow, though that race could easily go to a runoff.
There are big and active Republican primaries in the districts of African-American congressmen David Scott and Hank Johnson (who also faces former Dekalb County executive Vernon Jones, something of a party renegade, in the primary but isn’t expected to lose), who has had recent health problems, but Republicans would have to get very lucky to become competitive in either place.
An open seat in the north metro Atlanta 7th district has spawned a mammoth eight-candidate Republican primary to succeed John Linder, with every single candidate endorsing Linder’s “Fair Tax” proposal. Former state representative Clay Cox and former Linder chief of staff Rob Woodall are the favorite to make a runoff, though Christian Right figure Jody Hice also has some support.
And up in the North Georgia 9th district, until recently represented by gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal, the winner of last month’s special election, Tea Party favorite and former state representative Tom Graves, must face pretty much the same field of opponents in the primary, but is expected to win.
In non-Georgia political news, the big development was probably the implosion of the Colorado gubernatorial campaign of former congressman (and GOP front-runner) Scott McInnis, accused of plagiarizing portions of a think-tank paper for which he was grossly overpaid a few years ago. Colorado Republicans are in a quandary; the only other candidate on the primary ballot, Don Maes, has struggled to raise money, and has, ironically, also been cited for campaign finance violations. To hand-pick another viable candidate, party leaders would have to wait for the primary to occur and then beg the winner to step aside.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
Photo credit: Airno’s Photostream
Tags: Alabama, Bill Clinton, Campaigns and elections, Carl Smith, Carol Porter, Clay Cox, Colorado, conservatives, David Poythress, David Scott, Democratic Party, Don Maes, Dubose Porter, Education, Eric Johnson, Facebook, Georgia, Hank Johnson, Human Rights Campaign, immigration reform, income tax, Jan Brewer, Jim Marshall, Jody Hice, John Barrow, John Linder, John McCain, John Oxendine, Karen Handel, Kasim Reed, Martha Roby, Nathan Deal, Newt Gingrich, Nikki Haley, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Ray McKinney, Regina Thomas, Republican Party, Rick Barber, Right-to-Life, Rob Woodall, Robert Bentley, Roy Barnes, Sarah Palin, Scott Austin, Scott McInnis, Senate, Sonny Perdue, Taxes, Tea Party, Terri Sewell, Thurbert Baker, Tom Graves, Vernon Jones
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Thursday, July 8th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
As regular readers might recall, back in May I did an analysis which predicted that the furor over immigration policy touched off in Arizona would have its greatest political impact not in the southwest or west coast, but in the Deep South, where a combination of new and highly visible Hispanic populations, low Hispanic voting levels, and red-hot Republican primaries would likely bring the issue to the forefront.
Nothing that’s happened since then has made me change my mind about that, though southern Republican unanimity on backing the Arizona law and replicating it everywhere has reduced the salience of immigration as a differentiator in some GOP primaries, most notably in South Carolina (where in any event the Nikki Haley saga eclipsed everything else).
But in Georgia, whose primary is on July 20, immigration is indeed a big issue in the gubernatorial contest, as reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jim Galloway:
For the next 13 days, all stops are off when it comes to debating the issue of illegal immigration.
The Obama administration’s court challenge to the Arizona law that gives its peace officers the authority to stop and impound undocumented residents is already serving as a stick to a wasp nest in Georgia’s race for governor.
Former congressman Nathan Deal’s first TV ad of the primary season on Wednesday focused on illegal immigration and a promise that Georgia would soon have an Arizona-style law.
On the answering machines of tens of thousands of GOP voters, former secretary of state Karen Handel left a message of endorsement from Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer. Expect to see Brewer at Handel’s side before the July 20 vote.
The climate doesn’t brook dissent. Democrats have been uniformly silent on the Arizona issue.
As it happens, Deal and Handel are battling for a runoff spot. Handel and long-time Republican front-runner John Oxendine are also proposing radical changes in the state tax code, abolishing income taxes entirely, but so far that momentous issue is not getting the kind of attention generated by the action of another state on immigration three time zones away.
Photo credit: Th.omas’ Photostream
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Tags: Arizona, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Georgia, GOP, Immigration, Jan Brewer, Jim Galloway, John Oxendine, Karen Handel, Nathan Deal, Nikki Haley, Republican Party, South Carolina
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Thursday, July 8th, 2010
Matthew Dahl
Matt Dahl is a judicial clerk in Virginia and writes about national security law on his
blog. The views expressed here are his own.
by Matthew Dahl
On Tuesday, the federal government fired its first legal shot at Arizona’s controversial immigration law. The law as it stands now is slightly less stringent than it was in its original form. The original law allowed law enforcement officers to inquire into the immigration of anyone that they contacted. The amended law does not allow officers to stop and look into the immigration of a person if the stop is based solely on the person’s race. However, the law does require authorities to determine the immigration status of every person that breaks a state or local law, no matter how minor. It also attempts to address other immigration-related issues such as alien registration, smuggling, and employment, among others. The state became the target of national and international scorn when its Governor Jan Brewer signed the law on April 30th.
The law is set to take effect on July 29th, but the federal government is seeking an injunction that will stop that. The U.S. is actually seeking two types of injunctions: 1) a permanent injunction that will stop the law from ever being enforced, and 2) a preliminary injunction that will stop enforcement of the law while the case winds its way through the courts. The government is concerned that if the Arizona law is allowed to stand, it will lead other states to pass similar sweeping legislation that will further encroach on the federal government’s regulation of immigration, and drain federal resources that would have to be used for enforcement.
Cutting away all the legalese in the U.S.’s 58-page brief, the government’s argument boils down to this: the Arizona law impermissibly conflicts with federal immigration laws, and it will have adverse effects on federal resources used to regulate immigration and U.S. foreign policy. Part of the argument is that Arizona’s blanket treatment of all unlawful aliens affects the discretion given to the federal government under federal law. That discretion allows the federal government to more effectively target aliens that are a national security risk. Other areas of discretion allow the federal government to allow unlawful aliens to remain in the U.S. for humanitarian reasons. Also, requiring Arizona law enforcement officials to check the status of every person that breaks a law in the state will place too heavy a burden on federal resources that keep track of individuals’ immigration status.
Furthermore, U.S. foreign policy is affected by the Arizona bill because the current immigration framework arose in part from negotiations with other countries on how foreigners in the U.S. could expect to be treated. The Arizona law criminalizes actions by certain aliens that are treated with civil laws under the federal system. The federal government argues that this broad criminalization does not account for potential foreign policy concerns with respect to some aliens, and does not allow the U.S. to “speak with one voice” in the area of immigration.
This is the first step in what is sure to be a contentious legal battle. The federal government makes a convincing constitutional argument that Arizona’s law impermissibly strays into an arena meant to be controlled by federal law. Arizona’s response will most likely be that it was forced to enact the law in an effort to protect the well-being of the state in the face of the federal government’s inability to stem the tide of undocumented immigrants that stream across Arizona’s border every day. I would not be surprised to see the federal court in Arizona grant an injunction that stops the state from enforcing the law during the litigation process in order to allow it time to get to the Supreme Court, which will certainly make the final determination.
Photo credit: Fibonacci Blue’s Photostream
Tags: Arizona, immigration law, Jan Brewer, Supreme Court, U.S. foreign policy
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Tuesday, July 6th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Having looked at the overall landscape of House and Senate elections recently, it’s probably time for another overview of gubernatorial contests, which will have a bearing not only on state policies but on the upcoming decennial round of redistricting.
There are 37 governorships up for grabs in November, including 19 held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans, which closely reflects the narrow 26-24 Democratic advantage in gubernatorial offices overall. How many of these races are competitive? Well, according to the (subscription-only) Cook Political Report’s Jennifer Duffy, 18 of them, or nearly half, are toss-ups, including eight now held by Democrats and ten by Republicans. Add in eight more that are rated as leaning in one direction or another, and that makes an amazing 26 competitive gubernatorial races, and a range of possible outcomes that’s all over the lot, and won’t necessarily reflect the congressional results. For one thing, even if you concede a Republican “tide” this year, the competitive races are largely in states carried by Barack Obama in 2008: that includes 12 of the 14 currently held by Democrats, and 8 of the 12 currently held by Republicans.
There are races all over the country where late primaries and/or competitive dynamics could change. Fully 21 states with gubernatorial races haven’t yet held primaries (counting Alabama, with a Republican runoff next week), including 18 now rated as competitive. And most states are experiencing deep fiscal problems that cut in all sorts of different directions; it’s not automatically clear in many places whether frightening budget shortfalls will benefit Republicans who are talking about cutting back government or Democrats who are resisting new tax cuts and fighting unpopular teacher layoffs and service reductions. And thanks to term limits, retirements, and primary outcomes, the impact of incumbency is also more limited than you might think: only two of the 12 vulnerable Republican seats (Arizona and Texas), and five of the 14 vulnerable Democratic seats (Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Maryland and Ohio) will have an incumbent on the ballot in November. Making things even more confusing, a significant number of former governors are running as non-incumbents this year, including Democrats Jerry Brown of California, Roy Barnes of Georgia and John Kitzhaber of Oregon, and Republicans Terry Branstad of Iowa and Bobby Ehrlich of Maryland.
I’ll be doing a separate memo focusing on redistricting later on, but it’s worth noting that gubernatorial contests could have a huge impact on that process. For example, there are five states certain to gain congressional seats where Republicans currently control the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Texas and Utah. The first four of those states have competitive governor’s races where a Democratic victory could mess up Republican “trifecta” control just in time for redistricting. New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all of which will lose congressional seats, also have very close partisan balances in the state legislature, and Ohio and Pennsylvania have competitive governor’s races. It’s kind of like three-dimensional chess, and well worth watching as we approach November.
Poll Watch
It’s been a quiet week on the polling front. New Rasmussen surveys of the gubernatorial races in Ohio and Pennsylvania show competitive races with GOPers out in front. In Ohio, which has been a very close contest, the poll gives Republican John Kasich a 47-40 lead over incumbent Ted Strickland, his biggest lead in any published poll since a Rasmussen survey in March. In Pennsylvania, however, Rasmussen shows Republican Tom Corbett’s lead over Democrat Dan Onorato dropping from 16 points (49-33) to ten points (49-39) since early June; the 10-point margin is also what PPP reported in its latest Pennsylvania poll.
Meanwhile, in Georgoa, whose primary is on July 20, Insider Advantage has a new poll of the Republican gubernatorial race showing long-time front-runner John Oxendine falling into a tie with Karen Handel at 18 percent, with Nathan Deal at 12 percent. This is a bit counter-intuitive since Oxendine and a fourth candidate, Eric Johnson, have recently been dominating the airwaves with ads, though at Iowa’s Southern Political Report site, John Tures attributes a purported Handel “surge” to her recent endorsement by Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, “the next Sarah Palin.” (I have a separate post at FiveThirtyEight examining Brewer’s new national influence.) It’s probably worth noting that shortly before South Carolina’s June 8 primary, Iowa showed Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer headed for a runoff with Nikki Haley; he instead finished a dismal fourth. We’ll see if the firm has got a better “Handel” on Republican sentiment in Georgia.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Tags: Andre Bauer, Barack Obama, Bobby Ehrlich, Campaigns and elections, Cook Political Report, Dan Onorato, Democratic Party, Eric Johnson, Jan Brewer, Jerry Brown, John Kasich, John Kitzhaber, John Oxendine, John Tures, Karen Handel, Nathan Deal, Nikki Haley, Rasmussen Survey, Republican Party, Roy Barnes, Southern Political Report, Ted Strickland, Terry Branstad, Tom Corbett
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Monday, April 26th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
It’s increasingly clear that Arizona’s new immigration law, signed by Republican governor Jan Brewer last Friday, is going to be a galvinizing force in national, not just state, politics. This will be true whether or not Congress gets serious on comprehensive immigration reform legislation, this year or next.
While conservatives will predictably object that support for draconian measures to reduce illegal immigration — and I’d say instructing police officers to regularly roust anyone deemed “suspicious” for proof of citizenship is pretty draconian — does not indicate hostility to legal immigrants, it is not seen that way by most Hispanic citizens. And you’d think Republicans might have learned their lesson in 1994, when California’s Prop 187 — which like Arizona’s bill, purported to affect no one other than undocumented workers — triggered a major backlash against the GOP among Hispanic voters, especially but not just in the Golden State.
The timing of the Arizona action seems almost providential for Democrats, who can now benefit from a similar backlash without taking the lead on controversial national legislation (though they may choose to promote such legislation anyway). And the more Republicans continue to dutifully obey the Almighty Conservative Base on this subject, the more the prospect of a Republican-controlled Congress will begin to seem dangerous to Hispanic voters. Indeed, armed round-ups of brown-skinned Arizonans, to the cheers of Tea Party activists, could be a more potent GOTV force than anything Democrats could themselves devise.
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/jackazphotography/ / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
Tags: Arizona, California, Hispanics, Immigration, Jan Brewer, Prop 187, Race
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