Posts Tagged ‘ Labor ’

The Clinton Boom Was Real — Then Bush Happened

Thursday, January 7th, 2010
Will Marshall



Will Marshall is the president of the Progressive Policy Institute.

by Will Marshall

Most progressives were happy to say goodbye to the “aughts,” as dismal a decade as America has endured since the snake-bitten 1970s. But they may be surprised to learn that the U.S. economy’s poor performance on George W. Bush’s watch was actually Bill Clinton’s fault.

So says Michael Lind, who rang in a new year with a retrospective blast on Salon this week against the “New Democrat” policies of the 1990s.

If you lived through the Clinton years, you might recall them as flush times. Some basic facts: The economy grew briskly, creating 18 million new jobs; rapid innovation, especially in information technology and online commerce, bred new businesses and helped to raise productivity in old ones; unemployment stayed low despite a steady influx of immigrants and women coming off welfare rolls; markets rose as the percentage of Americans owning stock jumped 50 percent; homeownership reached a record high (nearly 70 percent); the poverty rate shrank significantly; and the United States ran budget surpluses for the first time in three decades.

Not bad, right? Well, as reimagined by Lind, the 1990s were another “lost decade,” just like the Bush years, with their successive dot.com and housing bubbles, regressive tax breaks, zooming federal deficits and of course, the grand finale – the near-meltdown of U.S. financial markets in the fall of 2008 along with the worst recession since 1982. If the comparison seems, well, strained, no matter. Lind’s real target is what he calls the myth of the “New Economy,” an illusion conjured by Clintonites (PPI comes in for honorable mention here) to justify “neoliberal” policies.

Breaking Down the New Economy

Specifically, Lind takes issue with New Democrats’ claims that the IT revolution helped to spur more robust productivity growth. This is not a terribly controversial point among economists. For example, a 2003 review of over 50 scholarly studies (PDF) by Jason Dedrick, Vijay Guraxani and Kenneth L. Kraemer (cited in Rob Atkinson’s 2007 report “Digital Prosperity“) reached this conclusion: “At both the firm and the country level, greater investment in IT is associated with greater productivity growth.”

It’s true that economist Michael Mandel, a PPI friend and prominent advocate of innovation-centered growth, has argued that U.S. productivity gains after 1998 were overstated. But the fact remains that labor productivity, which grew at an average of only 1.46 percent per year between 1973 and 1995, grew to nearly three percent annually afterwards. That spurt helped to produce the prosperity of the second half of the 1990s, a period which saw incomes grow in a “picket fence” pattern, meaning that all segments of the population saw roughly equal advances. For those years, at least, relative wage inequality narrowed.

Yet rather than give Clinton credit for economic results in the years when his policies actually were in force, Lind invokes the poor performance of the 2000s to condemn the policies of the 1990s. George W. Bush, arguably the worst economic manager since Herbert Hoover, is oddly absent from this revisionist fable.

And what about all the money gushing into the United States during the ‘90s from foreign investors? In Lind’s telling, New Democrats naively assumed that money was chasing higher returns, when in reality foreign lenders were trying to drive up the dollar’s value to make their country’s goods more competitive. Currency manipulation, especially by China, is obviously a problem today. But in the 1990s, the U.S. was not only innovating furiously, it was also growing faster than Europe and Japan, making it a natural magnet for foreign investment.

Finally, Lind challenges the notion that skills gaps are related to wage inequality. There are reams of economic studies showing strong positive returns to educational attainment.  (For an excellent discussion, see chapter eight in Creating an Opportunity Society, by Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill.) He is probably right that skills disparities alone don’t account for the growth in income inequality over the last several decades, but it seems perverse to argue that Clinton and his allies, as well as President Obama, are mistaken in wanting to see more Americans attend college.

Blaming the New Dems for GOP Sins

As a quick perusal of our website will confirm, PPI in the latter part of the 1990s published a raft of reports that a) documented the rise in relative inequality and b) proposed an array of innovative policies aimed at “expanding the winners’ circle” to include more working Americans. And perhaps Lind has forgotten that Clinton, in his first budget, raised taxes on the wealthy to restore progressivity and thus reduce after-tax inequality. He also got Congress to pass a massive expansion of the “work bonus” (earned income tax credit) for low-wage workers.

The causes of inequality are a subject of lively dispute among economists, but Lind is not hobbled by doubts. The reasons, he asserts, are to be found in the decline of unions, an eroding minimum wage, and unskilled immigrants. Yet by his own account, inequality really took off in the 1970s, when unions were relatively strong. (Plus, it’s strange to blame Democratic policies for growing inequality since 1980, since Democrats controlled the White House for only eight of those 28 years). Moreover, it should be obvious that falling union membership is the consequence, not the cause, of a massive shift in the U.S. employment base from manufacturing to services.

Because it affects only a small proportion of workers (including lots of kids working at part-time jobs), the minimum wage is a slender reed on which to hang the revival of good, middle-class wages in America. And there’s scant evidence to support Lind’s claim that immigration, legal or otherwise, has exerted significant downward pressure on native workers’ wages. The tide of unskilled immigration does have an impact on workers who don’t graduate from high school, but not a very large one.

The problem with Lind’s attempted deconstruction of the “New Economy” narrative is that it ignores a whole herd of elephants in the room, namely big structural changes in what U.S. firms do and how work is organized. Consider this description by Rob Shapiro, a key architect of the Clinton economic policies:

For the first time ever, U.S. businesses have been investing more in the development and use of ideas and other intangible assets than in physical assets of property, plant and equipment. Moreover, most of the value the economy now produces comes from those intangible assets. In 1984, the book value of the 150 largest U.S. companies—what their physical assets would bring on the open market—accounted for 75 percent of their stock market value; by 2005, it was equal to just 36 percent of the their market capitalization. The idea-based economy has gone from metaphor to reality.

We are left at last with the question of motive. Why is Lind so intent on rewriting the history of the most successful Democratic president in our lifetime, and raising doubts about the economic competence of the first majority-vote winning Democrat – Barack Obama — in the White House since LBJ?

Some progressives find it hard to forgive Bill Clinton for forcing them to acknowledge past mistakes. But failing to recognize your own successes may be even worse.

This item is cross-posted on Salon.

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A Missed Opportunity on Lobbying

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009
Lee Drutman



Lee Drutman is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of California, Berkeley. In 2008-2009, he was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution.

by Lee Drutman

The Obama administration is continuing its troubling zero-tolerance and zero-nuance policy for lobbyists. In so doing, it is both misunderstanding the problem of lobbying and missing an opportunity for a meaningful solution.

As the Washington Post reported last week, “Hundreds, if not thousands, of lobbyists are likely to be ejected from federal advisory panels as part of a little-noticed initiative by the Obama administration to curb K Street’s influence in Washington, according to White House officials and lobbying experts.”

Undoubtedly, these advisory panels (the Post estimates there are “nearly 1,000 panels with total membership exceeding 60,000 people”) are full of lobbyists representing narrow and well-funded special interests. This is indeed a problem.

But it is a tricky problem to solve because many of these lobbyists are actually incredibly knowledgeable about arcane policy areas. Getting rid of them means these panels lose valuable policy expertise. And if there are particular industries or companies who want to participate in these advisory panels, presumably they will still find ways to have representatives who are not technically “lobbyists” (meaning only that they have not registered as lobbyists).

Unfortunately, the Obama approach is a blunt instrument that treats all lobbyists as interchangeably nefarious. This is simply not the case. And worse, it misses the real problem, which is the problem of balance. I’ve estimated that for every one lobbyist representing a public interest group or a union, there are now 16 lobbyists representing a business or business association. It just isn’t a fair fight, and it’s no wonder that many people have real concerns about the role that lobbyists play.

Here’s a better idea: Instead of banning lobbyists from participating on advisory councils altogether, the Obama administration could take a good, hard look at these panels and ensure that they have balanced representation. The administration could press advisory boards to take steps to consider all sides of an issue before making recommendations, such as setting up processes for outreach to interests who might not have the resources to pay lobbyists to represent them on boards.

The best public policy will emerge when the greatest diversity of perspectives gets incorporated, and when the most knowledgeable people participate. This should be the goal of the administration. Focusing on whether or not members of these panels are “lobbyists” is just fixating on a label. It would be much better to look at who actually participates and what they contribute.

The views expressed in this piece do not necessarily reflect those of the Progressive Policy Institute.

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Is Reid Wobbling on the “Cadillac Plan” Tax?

Sunday, November 15th, 2009
Elbert Ventura



Elbert Ventura is the managing editor of the Progressive Policy Institute.

by Elbert Ventura

A New York Times editorial today threw its support behind a health reform provision that we’ve backed in the past: an excise tax on so-called Cadillac plans. But the Times‘ endorsement came on a weekend when prospects for the tax seemed to dim.

On Thursday, it was reported that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (NV) was considering raising the Medicare payroll tax on workers earning $250,000 or more to help pay for health care reform. According to one report, the idea being floated is a half-percent increase in the tax, to raise some $40 billion to $50 billion over 10 years. Another idea is to extend the payroll tax to capital gains and dividends from high-income earners.

Why the decision to tap into a new funding source for the reform package? One reason could be an effort to hike the Senate’s stingier (compared to the House bill’s) subsidies for low-income people. But a likelier reason could be, as the Times reported, an effort by Reid to cut back, if not outright eliminate, one of the Senate’s main financing sources, the excise tax.

If the payroll tax hike ends up replacing the excise tax, it would be an unfortunate development for reform. For months now, some powerful Democratic constituencies have been putting pressure on lawmakers to drop the idea. HCAN, a progressive health reform advocacy group, has come out swinging against it; the AFL-CIO has been running ads like this to scare the public and Congress.

But far from a tax that unfairly targets the middle class, the excise tax on high-cost health plans would actually be progressive. According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, the “thresholds for the proposed excise tax are sufficiently high that most health insurance plans would not be affected.” Moreover, such a tax would go some way toward bending the proverbial cost curve:

The proposed excise tax would make a major contribution to slowing the growth of health care costs by discouraging insurers from offering, and firms from purchasing, extremely generous health insurance coverage that can encourage excess health care utilization. That, in turn, would reduce incentives for excessive health care spending.

As employers seek out cheaper, more efficient health plans, the savings then get converted into higher wages for employees. Indeed, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation, of the $201 billion in increased revenue the excise tax would bring, only $38 billion would come from the excise tax itself — the rest would come from increased payroll and income taxes from the higher wages and salaries that employees would be paid.

While an increase or expansion of the payroll tax for high-income earners might yield some new and badly needed funds for reform, it would not be a sustainable source, what with health cost inflation growing at a far faster rate than payrolls and the taxes levied on them. The fact is that the excise tax on high-cost health plans simply produces too many good outcomes — revenue generation, cost reduction, wage increases — for progressives to pass up, let alone oppose.

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Labor and the Excise Tax on Insurers

Monday, October 26th, 2009
Elbert Ventura



Elbert Ventura is the managing editor of the Progressive Policy Institute.

by Elbert Ventura

From today’s The Hill comes word that the AFL-CIO has fired another volley across the bow of Senate Democrats on the issue of the excise tax for high-cost health plans:

AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka warned Senate Democratic leaders not to include a tax on high-cost healthcare plans in a bill that is expected to reach the floor in coming days.

Trumka dismissed the notion that Democratic leaders could placate the powerful union by raising the threshold on plans that would be subject to the tax. Under the Senate Finance Committee’s bill, plans costing more than $8,000 for individuals and $21,000 for families would be hit with a 40 percent excise tax.

As others have pointed out, the tax-free status of employer-provided health benefits is a regressive relic that, in an ideal world, we would be jettisoning. Hardly an assault on that system, the Senate Finance Committee’s bill takes modest steps to chip away at it by levying an excise tax on insurers for so-called “Cadillac” plans. The tax would bring in about $200 billion through 2019, making it a vital source of funding for health care.

But labor remains unmoved. Trumka’s statement is only the latest salvo from the unions. In September, AFSCME President Gerald McEntee took to the pages of USA Today to argue against taxing high-cost insurance plans. The unions claim that any tax on such plans would harm middle-class families. Their concerns aren’t entirely unfounded. Middle-class workers in high-risk jobs or high-cost areas might meet the Finance Committee’s $21,000 threshold, making them subject to the tax. (The tax would be levied on insurers, but everyone acknowledges that it would get passed on to employees.) In addition, older workers are likelier to have high-cost plans, making them prone as well.

But a closer look at the Finance Committee’s bill shows that labor’s concerns are overblown. The legislation is studded with exceptions that aim to soften the blow to middle-class workers. For one thing, it sets the thresholds 20 percent higher in the most expensive third of states. In addition, workers in high-risk jobs or 55 and older have a higher cap.

Despite these exemptions, labor isn’t budging — and they have made their influence felt. Earlier this month, 154 House Democrats sent a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (CA) urging her “to reject proposals to enact an excise tax on high-cost insurance plans that could be potentially passed on to middle-class families.”

One of the striking things about the administration’s approach to policy has been its effort to include all the stakeholders on a given issue, and to urge them to make concessions for the sake of national interest. By making a stand on the excise tax, labor has shown a disappointing unwillingness to make sacrifices for the greater good. It would be a tragedy if reform floundered now because of the unions’ insistence on defending a regressive and unfair feature of our health care system.

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