Posts Tagged ‘
Marco Rubio ’
Friday, October 1st, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Just a month out now from Election Day, national political crosswinds are beginning to yield in importance to the sometimes idiosyncratic dynamics of key individual campaigns. In the second of our series of regional takes on statewide and congressional races, we´ll take a quick look today at the South (using the Old Confederacy definition of the region).
This was, by any measurement, Barack Obama´s worst region in 2008, despite important victories in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. He trailed John Kerry´s performance in Arkansas and Tennessee, and his percentage of the white vote was abysmal in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana as well. Negative attitudes towards him have clearly deepened throughout the region during 2009 and 2010.
The South also has the nation´s richest lode of Democratic House members in districts carried by John McCain in 2008—23 out of 49. Considering the pro-Republican shape of the midterm electorate, and the erosion of Obama support, all these Democrats, plus many others in districts narrowly carried by Obama, entered 2010 in some serious danger.
There is only one Senate Democrat from the South up for re-election this year, Arkansas´ Blanche Lincoln, whose campaign appears to have fallen hopelessly behind Republican John Boozman even before her close primary runoff victory over Bill Halter.
The two Republican Senate seats thought to be within reach of Democrats are in North Carolina, where Elaine Marshall has run a credible race against Sen. Richard Burr, but is running out of time and money needed to score an upset; and in Florida, where the steady decline of Charlie Crist´s vote seems to be giving Marco Rubio an insurmountable lead.
Gubernatorial races are a relative bright spot for southern Democrats. Tennessee looks very likely to flip from D to R, and Alabama´s a very long shot for Democrat Ronnie Sparks, but in FL, Alex Sink is in a dead heat with Republican Rick Scott; in Georgia, the ethical and financial problems of GOP nominee Nathan Deal are keeping Roy Barnes in close contention; and in Texas, Bill White is running a very competitive race against Rick Perry. In Arkansas, Democratic incumbent Mike Beebe so far looks immune to the tsunami that has engulfed Blance Lincoln.
House races, as always, are harder to assess. Louisiana features a rare Republican-held district that Democrats are favored to flip, though accidental congressman Joseph Cao can´t be counted out. Overall, Democratic retirements have created major problems: the Cook Political Report rates five open southern House seats as “likely Republican,” and another as “lean Republican.” And among incumbents, twelve southern House Democrats are in races rated as tossups by Cook, with another seven in the competitive “lean Democratic” category.
All in all, that means 24 Democratic House seats in the South—2 in AL, 3 in AR, 5 in FL, 2 in GA, 1 in LA, 1 in MS, 2 in NC, 3 in TN, 2 in TX, and 3 in VA—are vulnerable in November 2. One big question involves African-American turnout, which is sometimes relatively robust in midterm election. Another is whether Republicans can count on a late surge in a region where anti-Obama and anti-Democratic leanings have been solidified for quite some time.
Photo credit: cfarivar
Tags: African-American, AL, Alabama, Alex Sink, anti-Democratic, anti-Obama, AR, Arkansas, Barack Obama, Bill Halter, Bill White, Blance Lincoln, Blanche Lincoln, Campaigns and elections, Charlie Crist, Democratic House members, Democratic Party, Elaine Marshall, Election Day, FL, Florida, GA, Georgia, GOP, Gubernatorial races, John Boozman, John Kerry, John McCain, Joseph Cao, LA, lean Democratic, lean Republican, likely Republican, Louisiana, Marco Rubio, midterm electorate, Mike Beebe, Mississippi, MS, Nathan Deal, NC, North Carolina, November 2, Old Confederacy, political crosswinds, Richard Burr, Rick Perry, Rick Scott, ronnie sparks, Roy Barnes, Senate Democrat, South, Tennessee, Texas, TN, TX, VA, Virginia
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Friday, September 3rd, 2010
Lee Drutman
Lee Drutman is a senior fellow and the managing editor for the Progressive Policy Institute.
by Lee Drutman
Will the Tea Party endure? If so, for how long?
Steve Clemons writes:
I hope David Frum is right and that the Tea Party movement, which is growing in numbers and ferocity, will hit its limit, experience an Icarus moment, and plunge back into the fringe of American politics where pugnacious, jingoistic, narrow band nationalism has always lurked.
But Clemons is skeptical: “But there is no guarantee of this,” he writes, citing a prominent funder, who frets that “their political loss didn’t teach the Republicans anything; they actually got much worse.”
Kevin Drum chimes in with faith in the political pendulum that always swings back:
I think Frum is right and the mega-funder just needs to have a bit more patience. Parties rarely move to the center immediately after a big defeat. Usually it takes two or three before they finally get the message, and on that metric Republicans aren’t due for a move to the center until sometime after 2012.
Sure, when a party keeps losing, eventually there is a move to shake it up. But the problem is that Republicans are winning doing this, which the wingnuts in the party will surely interpret as a vindication for their, errr, patriotic turn.
But I’m still optimistic that the Tea Party movement does have a limited shelf life. Here’s why:
In all likelihood, at least some of these tea party candidates are going to actually have to govern. Mike Lee is up by 25 points in Utah; Rand Paul is up almost 10 points in Kentucky; Joe Miller, Marco Rubio, Ken Buck are all leading as well in polls.
And governing is more difficult than campaigning. Once in Congress, these wild turks won’t be able to deliver on their outrageous promises of ending big government and repealing healthcare. This will likely provoke disillusionment and then infighting among Tea Party types as to whether to find a new breed of “purer” Tea Partiers, or to remain loyal to their existing leaders. Disillusionment and infighting will sap the Tea Party movement of energy.
Additionally, Tea Party legislators, especially in the Senate, will effectively grind the wheels of governance to a halt. Moderate voters, who are now fed up with Democrats for not fixing the economy in two years, will still want somebody to blame for a sluggish economy. And this new batch of Tea Party fanatics, who like to run off their mouths into the deep recesses of ridiculousness, will now find that being accountable makes them the hunted rather than the hunters.
In many ways, this is just the latest step in a decades-long ratcheting up of opposition political rhetoric and promises. The party out of power always promises that there are simple solutions to hard problems that will solve everything, and accuses the party in power of being just too corrupt, incompetent, or whatever to see that. But of course hard problems actually have hard solutions, and the problems now are harder than before and the solutions are even harder. In short: it’s probably a bad time to be overpromising.
Photo credit: adulau’s photo stream
Tags: David Frum, Joe Miller, Ken Buck, Kevin Drum, Marco Rubio, Mike Lee, Rand Paul, Steve Clemons, Tea Party
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Tuesday, August 31st, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
It’s another Tuesday, and believe it or not, there are no primaries today! In fact, the next batch is not until September 14, when seven states plus the District of Columbia hold elections. This last weekend, however, voters in Louisiana and West Virginia went to the polls, with the latter limited to a special primary election for the late Robert Byrd’s Senate seat.
West Virginia
The results there were absolutely predictable, with Gov. Joe Manchin easily defeating Ken Hechler for the Democratic nod, and 2008 Senate nominee Jon Raese winning the Republican bid without breaking a sweat. Given the refusal of better-known Republicans to take on Manchin, this contest will provide a pretty good test of generic Republican strength in a red-leaning state where Democrats have often dominated in non-presidential elections.
Louisiana
Down in Louisiana, Senate candidates David Vitter (R) and Charlie Melancon (D) had no trouble winning their parties’ nominations. The more interesting contests were in two House districts. In LA-02, where Republican Joseph Cao pulled off a flukey win in 2008 over the ethically challenged Bill Jefferson, state legislator Cedric Richmond (D), the well-financed consensus choice of both New Orleans and DC Democrats, easily won the nomination without a runoff. This is perhaps the ripest Democratic House pickup opportunity in the nation. But in Melancon’s LA-03, a ripe Republican pickup opportunity, front-runner Jeff Landry, the beneficiary of Tea Party and Christian Right support, just missed avoiding a October 2 runoff against former state House Speaker Hunt Downer. The runoff will boost the uphill candidacy of Democrat Ravi Sangisetty, who has raised an impressive amount of money.
Alaska
A major bit of unfinished business from last Tuesday’s primaries continued to play out today, as Alaska election officials began to count an estimated 25,000 absentee and provisional ballots. Former judge Joe Miller leads incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski by 1,668 votes, and things are getting nasty already with Miller’s campaign alleging vote-tampering by the Murkowski camp. On another front, the Alaska Libertarian Party decided against offering Murkowski its ballot line should she lose the GOP nomination. That means her options would be limited to a write-in campaign. The Libertarian action was bad news for Democratic candidate Scott McAdams, though the hatefulness surrounding the Republican contest could still give him an opening.
Delaware
Meanwhile, in Delaware (another Senate contest where Republicans were assumed to have a virtual lock, in Delaware) the Tea Party Express has decided to weigh in on behalf of insurgent conservative candidate Christine O’Donnell, who is challenging Republican party establishment favorite Mike Castle.
New Hampshire
Similarly, in NH, longtime front-running Republican Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte may be getting nervous following the endorsement of hard-core conservative Ovide Lamontagne by the New Hampshire (nee Manchester) Union-Leader. Democrat Paul Hodes has been leading Lamontagne in general election test heats.
North Carolina
And in yet another race often conceded to Republicans, a new PPP survey of NC (which involved a switchover by PPP from registered to likely voters) shows Democrat Elaine Marshall hanging in there against Sen. Richard Burr, trailing him 43-38 with 6% going to a Libertarian candidate.
It would be ironic, to say the least, if Democratic control of the Senate were saved by unlikely wins in Alaska, Delaware or North Carolina (not to mention Nevada, where most observers wrote off Harry Reid as early as last year), but it’s always possible.
Florida
And then there’s Florida, where two recent polls have shown Charlie Crist falling significantly behind Marco Rubio. Crist is in real danger of losing crucial Democratic support to freshly minted nominee Kendrick Meek, and is dancing around the key question of which party he would caucus with in the Senate.
The game of predicting Republican House gains is intensifying as we get closer to November, and this week GOPers are buzzing over a new Gallup House generic ballot poll that shows them with a ten point lead, the largest in Gallup history. But as Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal explains, this result looks a lot like a random-noise outlier, particularly when you compare it to the most recent Newsweek generic ballot poll, which shows the two parties tied. The overall trendlines, though, are hardly comforting for Democrats.
Tags: Cedric Richmond, Charlie Crist, Charlie Melancon, Christine O’Donnell, David Vitter, Elaine Marshall, Hunt Downer, Jeff Landry, Joe Manchin, Joe Miller, Jon Raese, Joseph Cao, Kelly Ayotte, Ken Hechler, Kendrick Meek, Lisa Murkowski, Marco Rubio, Mike Castle, Ovide Lamontagne, Paul Hodes, Ravi Sangisetty, Richard Burr
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Tuesday, August 17th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
It’s a relatively quiet Tuesday on the electoral front, with just two states, Washington and Wyoming, holding primaries today, and no one expecting any dramatic results of national import.
Washington
Washington has an unusual “Top 2” primary system, in which candidates from all parties compete on a single ballot with the top two finishers advancing to the general election (this is the system recently adopted for future elections in California via a successful initiative). It’s important to note that a majority vote does not (as in Louisiana’s “jungle primary”) obviate the need for a “runoff” in the general election.
The big contest in WA is the Republican challenge to Sen. Patty Murray (D). Almost all of the scenarios for a Republican takeover of the Senate this year require a Republican upset over Murray. And though it took a while, national Republicans were able to recruit the candidate they wanted in real estate developer Dino Rossi, who lost two close gubernatorial races to Christine Gregoire (D) in 2004 and 2008 and thus enjoys near-universal name ID.
But Rossi’s late entry, and his decision to steer clear of Tea Party gatherings, guaranteed him Republican competition in the primary. Former Washington Redskins tight end Clint Didier is the strongest of the True Conservative pack. Didier has drawn an endorsement from Sarah Palin, and should do well in central Washington, but barely reached double digits in a recent PPP poll showing Murray at 47 percent and Rossi at 33 percent. The buzz tonight will likely be about the relative positioning of Murray and Rossi.
The main event in Washington congressional primaries is in the open 3rd district, where Democrat Brian Baird is retiring. Former state legislator Denny Heck has largely cleared the field of other Democrats, and should finish first. The national GOP heart-throb for the race is state representative Jaime Herrera, a 31-year-old Latina who has shown a mild (for this year) moderate streak. Former state legislative staffer and federal appointee David Castillo has run to the right of Herrera, and has won the FreedomWorks endorsement that signifies Tea Party backing. Herrera is favored to make the general election, but an upset is possible.
In the other Washington congressional districts, incumbents are all favored, though in the very competitive 8th district, former Microsoft executive Suzan DelBane (D) is picking up where 2006-2008 Democratic nominee Darcy Burner left off in challenging Republican Dave Riechert. In the 9th district, two relatively viable Republicans, county commissioner Dick Muri and 2008 nominee James Postma, are battling for a spot opposite New Democrat Coalition co-chair Adam Smith, who will be pretty heavily favored in November.
Wyoming
In Wyoming, that rarest of beasts, a very popular Democratic governor in a very red state, David Freudenthal, decided relatively late this year against a legal challenge to term limits that probably would have enabled him to run for a third term. Democrats are holding a low-key gubernatorial primary dominated by former state party chair Leslie Peterson and former University of Wyoming football star Pete Gosar, who are both campaigning as political heirs of Freudenthal (Gosar once piloted the governor’s state plane). Peterson is the modest favorite due to high name ID.
The GOP gubernatorial primary in WY has turned into a four-way brawl involving former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, considered the “establishment” candidate; State Auditor Rita Meyer, who can boast of an elaborate military background and a late endorsement from Sarah Palin; House Speaker Colin Simpson, son of former Sen. Alan Simpson (whose old friend George H.W. Bush has given Simpson the Younger an endorsement); and hard-core conservative Ron Micheli, who’s won the endorsement of Wyoming anti-abortion activists and is challenging his opponents to take no-new-tax pledges.
A Mason-Dixon poll at the end of July showed Meyer at 27 percent, Mead at 24 percent, Simpson at 17 percent, and Micheli at 12 percent. Simpson’s undertaken a late media blit, and Micheli seems to have the True Conservative mojo going for him, so anything could happen.
Next Week: Florida
Looking ahead a week, the extremely unstable political situation in Florida going into the August 24 primary remains unclear. In the toxic GOP gubernatorial race, three recent polls (Mason-Dixon, Tarrance and McGlaughlin) show Attorney General Bill McCollum retaking the lead from heavy-spending Rick Scott, but an Ipsos survey shows Scott still well ahead. But Mason-Dixon and Ipsos agree in giving Democrat Alex Sink a lead over either Republican in a three-way race involving independent Bud Chiles.
In the Democratic Senate race, Mason-Dixon and Susquehanna show congressman Kendrick Meek taking advantage of bad publicity involving billionaire Jeff Greene to retake a double-digit lead in that contest. But again, Ipsos cuts against the grain with a survey showing Greene still up 40-32.
Since incumbent Gov. and independent Senate candidate Charlie Crist is very dependent on Democratic votes to remain viable, he has a big stake in the outcome of the Democratic primary. But given all the dramatics of the race, it’s unclear which candidate would help Crist, and which candidate could give Crist and Marco Rubio a run for their money.
Tags: Adam Smith, Alan Simpson, Alex Sink, Bill McCollum, Brian Baird, Bud Chiles, Charlie Crist, Christine Gregoire, Clint Didier, Colin Simpson, Darcy Burner, Dave Riechert, David Castillo, David Freudenthal, Denny Heck, Dick Muri, Dino Rossi, FreedomWorks, Jaime Herrera, James Postma, Jeff Greene, Kendrick Meek, Leslie Peterson, Marco Rubio, Matt Mead, Patty Murray, Pete Gosar, Rita Meyer, Ron Micheli, Sarah Palin, Suzan DelBane, Tea Party
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Thursday, August 5th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
So let’s say you’re a Republican politician who’s been working the far right side of the political highway for years, getting little national attention other than the occasional shout-out in Human Events. Or let’s say you’re a sketchy business buccaneer with a few million smackers burning a hole in your pocket, and you’ve decided that you’d like to live in the governor’s mansion for a while, but you can’t get the local GOP to see you as anything more than a walking checkbook who funds other people’s dreams.
What do you do? That’s easy: Get yourself in front of the loudest parade in town by becoming a Tea Party Activist!
There has been incessant discussion over the last year about the size, character, and intentions of the Tea Party rank-and-file. But, by and large, the political discussion has passed over another defining phenomenon: The beatific capacity of Tea Party membership, which enables virtually anyone with ambition to whitewash his hackishness—and transform from a has-been or huckster into an idealist on a crusade.
After all, to become a “Tea Party favorite” or a “Tea Party loyalist,” all a politician has to do is say that he or she is one—and maybe grab an endorsement from one of many hundreds of local groups around the country. It’s even possible to become indentified as the “Tea Party” candidate simply by entering a primary against a Republican who voted for TARP, the Medicare Prescription Drug bill, or No Child Left Behind. It’s not like there’s much upside to distancing oneself from the movement. Most Republican pols are as friendly as can be to the Tea Party; and it’s a rare, self-destructive elephant who would emulate Lindsey Graham’s dismissal of it all as a passing fad (in public at least).
Here, we’ll take a look at two specific types of politicians who have been especially eager to embrace the Tea Party movement: the fringier of conservative ideologues, for one, and also the self-funded ego freaks who can easily pose as “outsiders,” because no “insiders” would take them seriously. Let’s call these, respectively, the windbags and the moneybags.
By “fringier” conservative ideologues, I mean those who have argued, year in and year out, sometimes for decades, that even the conservative Republican Party simply is not conservative enough. Many of these politicians would be considered washed-up and isolated, or at least eccentric, in an era when “Party Wrecking” was still treated as a cardinal GOP sin. But now it’s as if they’ve been granted a license to kill. One classic example of this type is South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint, who was considered such a crank in the Senate that he was often stuck eating lunch alone as recently as 2008. His views, for example that Social Security and public schools are symbols of the seduction of Americans by socialism, were not long ago considered far outside the GOP mainstream. Now, in no small part because of his identification with the Tea Party Movement, DeMint has become an avenging angel roaming across the country to smite RINOs in Republican primaries, his imprimatur sought by candidates far from the Palmetto State.
Then there’s the new House Tea Party Caucus, chaired by Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, best known for suggesting that House Democrats be investigated for treason. Its members include a rich assortment of long-time conservative cranks, including Steve (“Racial profiling is an important part of law enforcement”) King, Joe (“You lie!”) Wilson, Paul (“We’ve elected a Marxist to be President of the United States”) Broun, Dan (Vince Foster Was Murdered!) Burton, and Phil (National Journal’s Most Conservative House Member in 2007) Gingrey. The key here is that these are not freshly minted “outsiders”: Burton has been in Congress for 28 years, Wilson for ten, King and Gingrey for eight. The oldest member of the House, Ralph Hall of Texas, who has been around for 30 years, is also a member of the caucus.
Even some of the younger Tea Party firebrands didn’t exactly emerge from their living rooms on April 15, 2009, to battle the stimulus legislation and Obamacare. Marco Rubio of Florida, after all, was first elected to the state legislature ten years ago and served as House Speaker under the protective wing of his political godfather, Jeb Bush. Sharron Angle first ran for office 20 years ago, and was elected to the Nevada legislature twelve years back. And of course the Pauls, father and son, are hardly political neophytes—they have just begun to look relevant again because the Tea Party movement has shifted the GOP in their direction.
And, in addition to the hard-right pols who’ve emerged into the sunshine of GOP respectability, the “outsider” meme surrounding the Tea Party movement has also created running room for well-funded opportunists—the “moneybags.”
These are epitomized by Rick Scott of Florida, who probably would not have passed the most rudimentary smell test in a “normal” election year. While there are always self-funding egomaniacs running for office—California’s Meg Whitman comes to mind along with Connecticut’s Linda McMahon—the former hospital executive presents a unique test case for the whitewashing power of Tea Party identification. He has managed to overcome a deeply embarrassing embroilment in the largest Medicare fraud case in history by taking his golden parachute from Columbia-HCA and becoming a right-wing crusader against health care reform, helping to make that a central cause for the Tea Party movement. (Scott was forced out of his position as head of the for-profit hospital chain, which he tried to build into the “McDonald’s of health care,” and the organization was fined $1.7 billion for overcharging the federal government.)
Pushed out of his job after the fraud decision, Scott decided to found the Conservatives for Patients’ Rights (CPR) group that exploded onto the national scene early in 2009 with a series of inflammatory TV ads attacking health reform, employing the same firm that crafted the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth spots against John Kerry in 2004. CPR also played a major role in organizing the town hall meeting protests in the summer of 2009, which marked the Tea Party movement’s transition from a focus on TARP and the economic stimulus bill to a broader conservative agenda.
So when Scott (a Missouri native who moved to Florida in 2003) suddenly jumped into the Florda governor’s race early in 2010, the cleansing power of tea had already transformed his image among conservatives, making his improbable campaign possible.
On the wrong side of this dynamic was Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, a former congressman and sturdy, if conventional, conservative who had paid his dues by twice running unsuccessfully for the Senate. McCollum had apparently all but locked up the nomination when Scott, in mid-April, leapt into the ring with ads calling himself a “conservative outsider” who would “run our state like a business,” while tarring McCollum as the candidate of “Tallahassee insiders” responsible for “the failed policies of the past.” Then came a torrent of advertising from Scott ($22 million by mid-July, more than anyone’s ever spent in Florida in an entire primary/general-election cycle) blasting McCollum for alleged corruption, for insufficient hostility toward illegal immigration, for being soft on abortion providers. The assault voided a lifetime of McCollum’s toil in the party vineyards, vaulting the previously unknown Scott into the lead in polls by early June. Worse yet, from a Republican point of view, Scott drove up McCollum’s negatives, and increasingly his own, to toxic levels, handing Democrat Alex Sink the lead in a July general election poll. And now McCollum, fighting for his life, is striking back, drawing as much publicity as he can to Scott’s questionable past, especially the Medicare fraud case against Columbia-HCA.
So the question is: Would Rick Scott have been in a position to carry out what is beginning to look like a murder-suicide pact on the GOP’s gubernatorial prospects if he hadn’t been able to identify himself as an “outsider conservative” with close ties to the Tea Party? That’s not likely, but it’s no less likely than the remarkable epiphanies that have made career pols of marginal relevance such as Jim DeMint and Sharron Angle into apostles of an exciting new citizens’ movement. So the next time you hear a candidate posturing on behalf of the Tea Party, squint and try to imagine what they were like in their former lives. Many of them have only found respectability through the healing power of tea.
This item is cross-posted at The New Republic.
Photo Credit: Hatters!’s Photostream
Tags: Alex Sink, Bill McCollum, Campaigns and elections, conservatives, Dan Burton, House Tea Party Caucus, Jeb Bush, Jim DeMint, Joe Wilson, John Kerry, linda McMahon, Lindsay Graham, Marco Rubio, Meg Whitman, Michele Bachmann, Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, Politics and politicians, Ralph Hall, Rand Paul, Republican Party, Rick Scott, Ron Paul, self-financing, self-funding, Sharron Angle, Steve King, Tea Party
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Tuesday, July 20th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Today’s major primary is in Georgia, and I covered the Peach State contests pretty thoroughly last week (for more detail, see this preview at FiveThirtyEight). An update, though: one late poll of the Republican gubernatorial race, by Magellan Strategies, shows Karen Handel blowing out to a big lead and long-time front-runner John Oxendine fading fast, with Nathan Deal and Eric Johnson battling for a runoff spot.
The primary calendar going forward includes Oklahoma on July 27; Kansas, Michigan and Missouri on August 3; Tennessee on August 5; and Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia (runoffs) and Minnesota on August 10. The general election calendar for November picked up an additional contest, with West Virginia formally scheduling a special election for the late Sen. Bob Byrd’s seat. The candidates are expected to be West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin, a Democrat, and Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), with the special election statute enabling the latter to run concurrently for re-election and for the Senate.
Second-quarter fundraising figures for federal contests have been trickling out during the last week, and the number that drew the most attention was probably the 4.5 million haul brought in by Florida Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio, more than doubling the funds raised by apostate Gov. Charlie Crist. On the other hand, a new PPP survey of the Florida Senate contest shows Crist maintaining a 35-29 lead over Rubio in a three-way race with Democrat Kendrick Meek (who has 17 percent); 52 percent of Crist’s support is from Democrats. In Nevada, controversial Republican nominee Sharron Angle outraised Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) by $400,000 ($2.6 million to $2.2 million), though again, the latest poll, from Mason-Dixon, showed Reid now up by 44-37. And in CA, incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) had a very good second quarter, raising $4.6 million. Her Republican challenger, Carly Fiorina, raised $3 million, but $1.1 million of that total was a loan from her own personal wealth. The latest poll there, from Rasmussen, shows Boxer up by seven points, 49-42. The largest disconnect between money and public opinion is in Arkansas, where incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) outraised Republican John Boozman by a four-to-one margin (though a lot of that was to finance her primary and runoff battles with Bill Halter); even Lincoln’s own polling, from Benenson, shows her trailing Boozman 45-36, while other polls have her down 2-1.
Poll Watch
In other polling news, Rasmussen has Democrat Richard Blumenthal maintaining a 53-40 lead over Republican Linda McMahon in the Connecticut Senate race; and shows Republican Paul LePage holding a 39-31 lead over Democrat Libby Mitchell (with independent Eliot Cutler at 15 percent) in the Maine gubernatorial contest. A Glengariff Group poll for the Detroit News of the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary shows a close three-way race among congressman Peter Hoekstra, Attorney General Mike Cox, and businessman Rick Snyder. The little-known “outsider” Snyder seems to have a lot of momentum. And in non-election polling news, an ABC/Washington Post survey on Elena Kagan’s Supreme Court nomination shows support for her confirmation continuing to lead opposition by a 53-25 margin.
Photo credit: Hjl’s Photostream
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
Tags: Barbara Boxer, Bill Halter, Blanche Lincoln, Bob Byrd, Campaigns and elections, Carly Fiorina, Charlie Crist, Colorado, Connecticut, conservatives, Democratic Party, Elena Kagan, Eliot Cutler, Eric Johnson, FiveThirtyEight, Georgia, Harry Reid, Joe Manchin, John Boozman, John Oxendine, Kansas, Karen Handel, Kendrick Meek, Libby Mitchell, linda McMahon, Magellan Stategies, Marco Rubio, Michigan, Mike Cox, Minnesota, Missouri, Nathan Deal, Oklahoma, Paul LePage, Peter Hoekstra, Politics and politicians, progressives, Republican Party, Richard Blumenthal, Rick Snyder, Sharron Angle, Shelley Moore Capito, Tennessee
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Friday, July 2nd, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
It’s now just four months until Election Day, and for those who really like to think ahead, not much more than a year-and-a-half away from the next Iowa caucuses. (Speaking of the 2012 presidential nominating process, I’ve got an item posted at FiveThirtyEight about the maneuvering over the rules and calendar for that contest.)
My political memo on Tuesday focused mainly on an overview of House races, so today let’s take a closer look at the U.S. Senate. As noted on Tuesday, Nate Silver has slightly upgraded Democratic Senate prospects after the recent batch of primaries, and now thinks the probabilities come in at about 55 for what Democrats might have in the way of a Senate majority after November. Over at the (subscription-only) “Cook Political Report,” Jennifer Duffy, relying somewhat less than Silver on polling data, reaches similar conclusions about the overall landscape but with different takes on specific races. Duffy, for example, still has Arkansas in the toss-up category, while Silver says: “Our model now shows Blanche Lincoln’s chances to be close to zero (technically, about 0.3 percent, which rounds down to zero).” Conversely, the Cook Report shows the Connecticut race as “lean Dem” (having briefly rated it as a toss-up after the military record controversy hit Democrat Richard Blumenthal), while FiveThirtyEight rates it as “safe Dem.” It will be interesting to see if these and other forecasts begin to converge as we get closer to November.
It’s also worth remembering that the nominees haven’t been sorted out yet in several competitive or potentially competitive Senate races, notably Colorado, Arizona, Florida and Wisconsin. And most interesting of all will be to see if some sort of intensified national wave begins to help Republican Senate candidates towards the home stretch, which could solidify the GOP’s shaky hold on seats in Ohio and Missouri (and perhaps Florida, where Marco Rubio consistently trails now-indie Charlie Crist), while making Democratic incumbents in Washington, California and Wisconsin a lot more vulnerable. To use historical analogies, we’ll find out if this Senate cycle is more like 1980 and 2008, when one party (Rs in 1980, Ds in 2008) got every break and won every close race, or like 1982, a recession-ridden year when the incumbent Republicans dodged a lot of bullets.
The polling world this week was roiled by a conflict between Daily Kos and the Research 2000 public opinion research firm, which has done regular polling for DKos for the last two years. DKos proprietor Markos Moulitsas dismissed the firm recently, apparently unhappy with its accuracy as rated by FiveThirtyEight. But then an investigation of anomalies in R2K numbers convinced Markos that there might be fraud or at least book-cooking involved, and now the charges and counter-charges are flying and lawsuits are being filed. As the facts get sorted out, all sorts of political observers (including yours truly) are looking back at what they might have said or concluded based on R2K data. It is clear that if R2K gets out or is forced out of the state polling biz, the dominance of Rasmussen data, with its apparent pro-GOP “house effect,” could grow, though PPP seems to be expanding its state polling significantly.
Poll Watch
In polls this week that aren’t part of any overriding dispute, PPP takes a look at GOP statewide primaries in Wisconsin, and finds self-funder Ron Johnson with a big lead over hard-core ideologue David Westlake in the Senate race, and Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker with an equally comfortable lead over former Rep. Mark Neumann in the gubernatorial race. Meanwhile the increasingly visible Republican polling firm Magellan has Democratic former Gov. John Kitzhaber and Republican candidate Chris Dudley even in the Oregon gubernatorial race, and shows Republican former Gov. Bobby Ehrlich inching ahead of incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley in Maryland.
Tags: Arizona, Blanche Lincoln, Bobby Ehrlich, Campaigns and elections, Charlie Crist, Chris Dudley, Colorado, Daily Kos, David Westlake, Democratic Party, Florida, House of Representatives, Jennifer Duffy, John Kitzhaber, Marco Rubio, Mark Neumann, Markos Moulitsas, Martin O'Malley, Nate Silver, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Republican Party, Richard Blumenthal, Ron Johnson, Scott Walker, Senate, Wisconsin
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Friday, April 30th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
The big news this week was the much-telegraphed announcement yesterday by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist that he will abandon the Republican senatorial primary (where he was in danger of being trounced by Marco Rubio) and instead re-file as an independent candidate in that race.
Crist’s gambit raises a lot of questions, most immediately about how many of his donors will ask for their money back, and how, exactly, he will negotiate the very difficult shoals of an independent candidacy in a state famous for its partisanship. The instant GOP blowback was intense, as Jonathan Martin of Politico reported:
Immediately after he gave his speech, his campaign manager and two press aides resigned. His mail vendor and media consultant also indicated that they would not remain with him as he pursued a third-party bid.
In Washington, the very GOP senators who had anointed him as the party’s favorite last year castigated him as an untrustworthy opportunist and demanded that he return their contributions and those of other Republicans.
Crist appears determined to run an “outsider” campaign, which will be somewhat difficult for an incumbent governor and former darling of the national GOP establishment. The first post-announcement three-way polls will be very interesting.
While it was completely overshadowed by the Crist drama, the Florida senatorial race was also roiled by reports that billionaire investor Jeff Greene, who bet against the housing bubble and won big, will enter the Democratic primary against U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, who had been focused on the general election. Greene is apparently being advised by the eccentric duo of Joe Trippi and Doug Schoen.
The other trend worth watching this week was the sudden dilemma posed to Republican candidates for various offices across the country by Arizona’s new immigration law, which among other things, authorized law enforcement officers to demand proof of citizenship from anyone “reasonably suspected” of being in the country illegally. While virtually all Republicans have defended the Arizona action as an indictment of the failure of the federal government to “protect the borders,” the specific law has struck sparks, particularly among candidates in highly competitive Republican primaries.
In Nevada, for example, the front-runner in the gubernatorial race, Brian Sandoval, who happens to be both a Latino and suspected by hard-core conservatives of being a moderate squish, instantly endorsed the Arizona law. His main opponent, incumbent Jim Gibbons, who has been running as the true conservative candidate, demurred, arguing that Nevada didn’t need that sort of law because it wasn’t a border state. And a third candidate who is trying to outflank Gibbons on the right, Mike Montandon, not only endorsed the Arizona initiative but called profiling by law enforcement officers — the main concern many have had with the Arizona law — absolutely essential.
The furor over the Arizona initiative has not been confined to the West. It may, in fact, have its greatest impact on Republicans in the Deep South, where Hispanic immigration has been visible enough to upset conservatives, but has not yet created a significant voting bloc. Almost immediately after the enactment of the Arizona law, Alabama Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim James, who is struggling to overcome Judge Roy Moore as the Christian conservative candidate in that race, launched an ad attacking his own state’s practice of offering drivers’ tests in languages other than English.
Next door in Georgia, gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal, who recently resigned from the U.S. House on the heels of an ethics investigation, publicly called for enactment of an Arizona-style immigration system in his own state. And in South Carolina, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who earlier compared subsidized school lunch beneficiaries to “stray animals,” harnessed the Arizona controversy to his own distinctive message in the gubernatorial race by suggesting that immigrants wouldn’t be coming to the Palmetto State if lazy welfare bums were willing to work.
It’s an easy guess that immigration fever will spread in highly competitive southern Republican primaries, and perhaps elsewhere. In general, cultural issues can be expected to pop up where candidates are trying to distinguish themselves in a Republican Party that’s now monolithically — even radically — conservative on economic and fiscal issues.
Poll Watch
In polling news, there were two big national surveys released this week, one by the Washington Post/ABC News, and the other by Pew. The WaPo/ABC poll had some good news for Democrats:
The public trusts Democrats more than Republicans to handle the major problems facing the country by a double-digit margin, giving Democrats a bigger lead than they held two months ago, when Congress was engaged in the long endgame over divisive health-care legislation. A majority continues to see Obama as “just about right” ideologically, despite repeated GOP efforts to define the president as outside the mainstream.
Those polled also say they trust Obama over Republicans in Congress to deal with the economy, health care and, by a large margin, financial regulatory reform. And the president continues to get positive marks on his overall job performance, with, for the first time since the fall, a majority of independents approving.
Pew (PDF), on the other hand, found Republicans drawing even with Democrats on five of six major issues (the exception being energy policy). Go figure.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Monday and Friday.
Tags: Andre Bauer, Arizona, Brian Sandoval, Campaigns and elections, Charlie Crist, conservatives, Florida, Immigration, Jim Gibbons, Jonathan Martin, Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, Mike Montandon, Nathan Deal, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Republican Party, Roy Moore, Senate, Tim James
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Friday, April 23rd, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
The madness in Florida continued to rivet political junkies this week, as the odds of Gov. Charlie Crist withdrawing from the Republican U.S. Senate field and refilling as an independent continued to rise. A second poll (this one from Rasmussen) shows Crist doing pretty well in a three-way contest with Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek. Nate Silver notes, however, that the dynamics of a three-way race are not friendly to the perma-tanned governor:
[If] Crist wants to avoid falling into third place, he probably needs to start appealing to Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents almost immediately. There’s a little bit more breathing room over on that side of the aisle because Kendrick Meek is relatively unknown by the electorate: just 26 percent of the electorate have an opinion of him, according to Quinnipiac, versus 57 percent for Rubio (and 84 percent for Crist)…. But Crist will need a fairly broad amount of support from Democrats and Democratic leaners in order to have a shot in a three-way race in which Rubio will almost certainly finish in at least the mid-high 30s, and his best way to achieve that is to prevent Meek from getting traction in the first place. Having denied Meek viability, he could then tact back toward the center or the center-right come the fall.
But, this isn’t easy: the more Crist thrusts to the left after having being reborn as an independent, the more flip-floppy he’ll look. It’s quite a needle to thread and it’s possible that he’s simply waited too long to make this move.
Crist has until April 30 to make up his mind what he’s doing.
In one of the fast-approaching 2010 primaries, things are heating up in Indiana, where former Rep. John Hostettler and state senator Marlin Stutzman are tacking to the right in the GOP primary in an effort to knock off the early prohibitive front-runner for the Senate, former Sen. Dan Coats. At least one conservative pundit is predicting a Stutzman upset, and he’s gotten support from self-appointed conservative GOP litmus-tester Jim DeMint, American Conservative Union president David Keene and RedState.com’s Erick Erickson.
Meanwhile, down in Georgia, Democrats desperate for a Senate candidate got lucky, as Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, an African-American who has won three statewide elections, filed to take on Sen. Johnny Isakson, who’s been having some health problems. Thurmond’s move should help keep Georgia’s Democratic biracial coalition intact if former Gov. Roy Barnes, who is white, beats Attorney General Thurbert Baker, who is African-American, in the gubernatorial primary. Thurmond had been mulling a race for Lieutenant Governor.
As I noted in a separate post this week, the most fascinating polling news was a Rasmussen survey in California that not only showed former Gov. Jerry Brown moving out in front of Republican Meg Whitman in the gubernatorial contest, but also indicated that Whitman’s heavy spending on ubiquitous ads may be backfiring early in the cycle. Rasmussen has also done the first public polling since Bob Ehrlich officially launched a rematch against Maryland Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley, showing a close race led narrowly by O’Malley.
Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/thomashawk/ / CC BY-NC 2.0
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs on Mondays and Fridays.
Tags: American Conservative Union, Campaigns and elections, Charlie Crist, Dan Coats, David Keene, Democratic Party, Erick Erickson, Jerry Brown, Jim DeMint, John Hostettler, Johnny Isakson, Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, Marlin Stutzman, Martin O'Malley, Meg Whitman, Michael Thurmond, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Republican Party, Robert Ehrlich, Roy Barnes, Thurbert Baker
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Friday, April 16th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
It’s been a week of fog and shadows in U.S. politics — a lot of fiery talk, much of it surrounding the financial regulation bill in Congress and Tax Day beyond it — and a few real developments.
The best news for Democrats is that potentially formidable Republican candidates for two must-win Senate seats decided not to run: former governors George Pataki of New York and Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin. This makes the seats of Democrats Kirsten Gillibrand and Russ Feingold relatively safe, at least for now.
The other good news for Dems is that they easily retained the South Florida House seat of resigned Rep. Robert Wexler in a special election. That shouldn’t have been surprising, given the heavily pro-Democratic voting history of the district. But after Scott Brown’s victory, some Republicans began to imagine they could win anywhere. Moreover, the heavy senior and Jewish voting segments of the district fed some Republican hopes that senior unhappiness with health reform and Jewish anxiety over the president’s stormy relations with Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu might produce a backlash. No such luck.
Also in Florida, the very tangled U.S. Senate race took another odd turn, as embattled Gov. Charlie Crist, badly trailing Marco Rubio in the polls for their Republican primary, ended days of suspense by vetoing a “teacher merit pay” bill that had created vast partisan polarization in the Sunshine State. The bill, which would have phased out teacher tenure and based half of teacher evaluation on students’ performance on standardized tests, was the apple of former Gov. Jeb Bush’s eye. In vetoing the legislation, Crist became more of a pariah to conservatives than ever, spurring rumors (which the governor and his staff have been routinely denying) that he might withdraw from the primary and run as an independent.
One other little tidbit from Florida: Guess who just registered to vote in the Sunshine State? Mike Huckabee. It could be just a coincidence, but Florida is certainly a more important state in the Republican presidential nominating process than Huck’s native Arkansas. It’s probably also easier to get flights from there to New York, where Huckabee’s weekly Fox show is taped.
In a number of states, candidates are gearing down for a very heavy month of May, with competitive statewide primaries, and many downballot contests, on tap in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio (May 4); and Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania (May 18). There are Senate primaries in all six states, and a competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary in PA.
Polling activity is also picking up. There were three new polls out of Arkansas this week, all showing Sen. Blanche Lincoln maintaining a steady but not overwhelming lead against primary challenger Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. With a third candidate in the field, the big issue there may be whether Lincoln can avoid a runoff in which almost anything could happen.
The very day that Charlie Crist cast his fate to the winds by vetoing a GOP education bill, Quinnipiac came out with a new poll showing him getting crushed by Marco Rubio more than ever in a Senate primary, but actually leading a three-way race with Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek if he runs as an independent.
And there’s been some, well, unusual polling results on trial heats of possible 2012 challengers to President Obama. Rasmussen showed Ron Paul running even with the president, which is a bit hard to believe. And PPP showed four different Republicans (Huckabee, Palin, Gingrich and Romney) running almost exactly even with Obama, despite wide differences in their own approval ratings, which is a bit hard to understand.
Finally, if you haven’t seen yesterday’s New York Times/CBS poll that includes the most thorough survey we’ve seen of tea party supporters, do check it out, along with my analysis of it. Long story short: I don’t care what Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell say in today’s Washington Post; if the tea partiers are indeed, as they argue, “swing voters,” then I’m the next American Idol, and not just in the shower.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs on Mondays and Fridays.
Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/sharingflorida/ / CC BY-ND 2.0
Tags: Barack Obama, Bill Halter, Blanche Lincoln, Campaigns and elections, Charlie Crist, Democratic Party, Douglas Schoen, George Pataki, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Pat Caddell, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Republican Party, Ron Paul, Russ Feingold, Sarah Palin, Tommy Thompson
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Tuesday, April 13th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
It’s long been apparent that immigration is an issue that is the political equivalent of unstable nitroglycerine: complex and dangerous. It arguably splits both major parties, although national Democratic politicians generally favor “comprehensive immigration reform” (basically a “path to citizenship” for undocumented workers who meet certain conditions and legalize themselves, along with various degrees of restriction on future immigration flows), and with George W. Bush gone, most Republicans oppose it.
It is of most passionate concern, for obvious reasons, to Latino voters, and also to many grassroots conservatives for which widespread immigration from Mexico into new areas of the country has become a great symbol of an unwelcome change in the nation’s complexion. But the fact remains that perceived hostility to immigrants has become a major stumbling block for Republican recruitment of otherwise-conservative Latino voters, which explains (along with business support for relatively free immigration) the otherwise odd phenomenon that it was a Republican administration that last pursued comprehensive immigration reform. (Some may remember, in fact, that immigration reform was and remains a big part of Karl Rove’s strategy for insuring a long-range Republican majority.)
I’m not sure how many progressives understand that immigration policy is a significant part of the narrative of “betrayal” that conservatives have written about the Bush administration — right up there with Medicare Part D, No Child Left Behind, and big budget deficits. And implicitly, at least, when Republicans talk about “returning the GOP to its conservative principles,” many would make repudiation of any interest in comprehensive immigration reform — or, as they typically call it, “amnesty for Illegals” — part of the litmus test.
This is one issue of many where professional Republican pols are almost certainly happy that Barack Obama is in office right now — they don’t have to take a definitive position on immigration policy unless the president first pulls the trigger by moving a proposal in Congress, and it’s unlikely he will until other priorities are met.
But at some point, and particularly if Republicans win control of the House in November and inherit the dubious prize of partial responsibility for governance, they will come under intense pressure to turn the page decisively on the Bush-Rove embrace of comprehensive immigration reform. And no matter what Obama does, immigration will definitely be an issue in the 2012 Republican presidential competition.
So it’s of more than passing interest to note that the pressure on Republicans to take a national position on this issue has been significantly increased by the rise of the Tea Party Movement.
At 538.com today, Tom Schaller writes up a new study of tea partiers and racial-ethnic attitude in seven key states from the University of Washington’s Christopher Parker. While the whole thing is of considerable interest, I can’t tease much of immediate political signficance from the fragmentary findings that Parker has initially released, beyond the unsurprising news that Tea Partiers have general views on race, ethnicity and GLBT rights that you’d expect from a very conservative portion of the electorate.
But one finding really does just jump off the page: Among the 22 percent of white voters who say they “strongly support” the Tea Party Movement in the seven states involved in the study, nearly half (45 percent to be exact) favor the very radical proposition that “all undocumented immigrants in the U.S. should be deported immediately.” That’s interesting not only because it shows how strong anti-immigrant sentiment is in the Tea Party “base,” but because it embraces a very specific and proactive postion that goes far beyond resistance to comprehensive immigration reform or “amnesty.” The finding is all the more remarkable because it comes from a survey on “racial attitudes”; I don’t know what sorts of controls Parker deployed, but polls that dwell on such issues often elicit less-than-honest answers from respondents who naturally don’t want to sound intolerant.
So if and when push becomes shove for the GOP on immigration, the shove from the Tea Partiers could be especially strong. And that won’t make the GOP happy: Republican elites understand that however bright things look for them this November (in a midterm contest that almost always produces an older-and-whiter-than-average electorate), their party’s base of support is in elements of the population that are steadily losing demographic ground. Beginning in 2012, that will become an enduring and ever-worsening problem for the GOP, and a position on immigration guaranteed to repel Latinos would be a very heavy millstone, just as Karl Rove concluded when he pushed W. to embrace comprehensive immigration reform.
The issue is already becoming a factor in the 2010 cycle. This is most obvious in Arizona, where J.D. Hayworth’s Tea-Party-oriented challenge to John McCain is in part payback for McCain’s longstanding support for comprehensive immigration reform. But it could matter elsewhere as well. You’d think that Cuban-American Senate candidate Marco Rubio would be in a good position to do very well among Florida Latinos. But actually, his potential achilles heel in a likely general election matchup with Democrat Kendrick Meek (who, as it happens, is an African-American with his own close ties to South Florida’s Cuban-American community) is a weak standing among Latinos, particulary the non-Cuban Latino community in Central Florida, attributable in no small part to his vocal opposition to comprehensive immigration reform. Indeed, even if he defeats Meek, if Rubio gets waxed among Florida Latinos, Republicans will have an especially graphic illustration of the continuing political peril of opposing legalization of undocumented workers, even when advanced by a Latino politician.
The real acid test for Republicans on immigration could come in California, the state where in 1994 GOP governor Pete Wilson fatally alienated Latino voters from his party for years to come by championing a cutoff of public benefits for undocumented workers (a far less draconian proposal than immediate deportation, it should be noted). Underdog conservative gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner has made his campaign all about reviving Wilson’s proposal. If Republican front-runner Meg Whitman can crush Poizner without any accomodation of his views on immigration, it could help her overcome a problem with Latino voters that emanates not only from Democrat Jerry Brown’s longstanding ties to the Latino community, but from the fact that her campaign chairman is none other than Pete Wilson.
In any event, whether it’s now or later, in 2010 or in 2012 and beyond, the Republican Party is going to have to deal with the political consequences of its base’s hostility to the levels of Latino immigration, and to growing demands for steps ranging from benefit cutoffs to deportation of undocumented workers. With the Tea Partiers exemplifying instensely held grassroots conservative demands for a more aggressively anti-immigration posture, even as the political costs of obeying these demands continues to rise, Republicans will be juggling explosives on this issue for the foreseeable future.
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/people/vpickering/
Tags: Barack Obama, Christopher Parker, conservatives, Deficits and debt, Democratic Party, George W. Bush, Hispanics, Immigration, J.D. Hayworth, Jerry Brown, John McCain, Karl Rove, Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, Medicare, Meg Whitman, No Child Left Behind, Pete Wilson, Public opinion, Republican Party, Steve Poizner, Tea Party, Tom Schaller
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Wednesday, March 17th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
One of the important sideshows in the 2010 campaign cycle is the intervention of potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates in current GOP primaries.
Sarah Palin has received considerable attention for endorsing Tea Party favorite and libertarian scion Rand Paul for the Senate in Kentucky over Mitch McConnell’s buddy Trey Grayson, and also for endorsing her old running mate, John McCain, in his fight with right-wing talk show host and former U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth.
Mike Huckabee has been more aggressive in his endorsements, mainly by supporting candidates who endorsed him in 2008. Huck struck gold by getting out early in support of Tea Party/conservative icon Marco Rubio’s challenge to Charlie Crist in Florida — long before Rubio began crushing Crist in the polls. Beyond that, Huck has endorsed controversial gubernatorial candidates in two early 2012 caucus/primary states: Lt. Gov. Andre (“Stray Animals”) Bauer, and Iowa social conservative Bob Vander Plaats. The latter is an especially interesting endorsement; if Vander Plaats upsets former Gov. Terry Branstad (who is closely affiliated with Mitt Romney supporters in that state) in the Iowa gubernatorial primary in June, Huck will be in good shape to repeat his 2008 victory in the Iowa Caucuses.
Like Huckabee, Mitt Romney has kept his endorsements so far limited to 2008 allies (with the exception of John McCain). Those include front-running California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman and longshot Alabama gubernatorial candidate Kay Ivy. But two recent Romney endorsements (again, of people who endorsed Mitt in 2008) have drawn national attention: embattled incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett of Utah (a Romney hotbed, for obvious reasons), for whom conservatives have long knives out, and then state Rep. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, a big favorite of the right-wing blogosphere.
Meanwhile, Tim Pawlenty, after doing the Right thing by endorsing conservative Doug Hoffmann in a red-hot New York special election last year, announced he would eschew further interventions in competitive Republican primaries. But he made an exception for John McCain, presumably after ensuring he would receive cover for this step from Palin and Romney.
If Hayworth manages to beat McCain, he won’t owe any 2012 candidates a thing. But there are plenty of other competitive primaries later this year where the presidentials haven’t weighed in, and the chess game of endorsements will be very interesting.
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Tags: Andre Bauer, Bob Bennett, Bob Vander Plaats, Campaigns and elections, Charlie Crist, conservatives, Doug Hoffman, J.D. Hayworth, John McCain, Kay Ivy, Marco Rubio, Meg Whitman, Mike Huckabee, Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney, Nikki Haley, Politics and politicians, Republican Party, Sarah Palin, Tea Party, Terry Branstad, Tim Pawlenty, Trey Grayson
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