Posts Tagged ‘
Nathan Deal ’
Friday, October 1st, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Just a month out now from Election Day, national political crosswinds are beginning to yield in importance to the sometimes idiosyncratic dynamics of key individual campaigns. In the second of our series of regional takes on statewide and congressional races, we´ll take a quick look today at the South (using the Old Confederacy definition of the region).
This was, by any measurement, Barack Obama´s worst region in 2008, despite important victories in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. He trailed John Kerry´s performance in Arkansas and Tennessee, and his percentage of the white vote was abysmal in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana as well. Negative attitudes towards him have clearly deepened throughout the region during 2009 and 2010.
The South also has the nation´s richest lode of Democratic House members in districts carried by John McCain in 2008—23 out of 49. Considering the pro-Republican shape of the midterm electorate, and the erosion of Obama support, all these Democrats, plus many others in districts narrowly carried by Obama, entered 2010 in some serious danger.
There is only one Senate Democrat from the South up for re-election this year, Arkansas´ Blanche Lincoln, whose campaign appears to have fallen hopelessly behind Republican John Boozman even before her close primary runoff victory over Bill Halter.
The two Republican Senate seats thought to be within reach of Democrats are in North Carolina, where Elaine Marshall has run a credible race against Sen. Richard Burr, but is running out of time and money needed to score an upset; and in Florida, where the steady decline of Charlie Crist´s vote seems to be giving Marco Rubio an insurmountable lead.
Gubernatorial races are a relative bright spot for southern Democrats. Tennessee looks very likely to flip from D to R, and Alabama´s a very long shot for Democrat Ronnie Sparks, but in FL, Alex Sink is in a dead heat with Republican Rick Scott; in Georgia, the ethical and financial problems of GOP nominee Nathan Deal are keeping Roy Barnes in close contention; and in Texas, Bill White is running a very competitive race against Rick Perry. In Arkansas, Democratic incumbent Mike Beebe so far looks immune to the tsunami that has engulfed Blance Lincoln.
House races, as always, are harder to assess. Louisiana features a rare Republican-held district that Democrats are favored to flip, though accidental congressman Joseph Cao can´t be counted out. Overall, Democratic retirements have created major problems: the Cook Political Report rates five open southern House seats as “likely Republican,” and another as “lean Republican.” And among incumbents, twelve southern House Democrats are in races rated as tossups by Cook, with another seven in the competitive “lean Democratic” category.
All in all, that means 24 Democratic House seats in the South—2 in AL, 3 in AR, 5 in FL, 2 in GA, 1 in LA, 1 in MS, 2 in NC, 3 in TN, 2 in TX, and 3 in VA—are vulnerable in November 2. One big question involves African-American turnout, which is sometimes relatively robust in midterm election. Another is whether Republicans can count on a late surge in a region where anti-Obama and anti-Democratic leanings have been solidified for quite some time.
Photo credit: cfarivar
Tags: African-American, AL, Alabama, Alex Sink, anti-Democratic, anti-Obama, AR, Arkansas, Barack Obama, Bill Halter, Bill White, Blance Lincoln, Blanche Lincoln, Campaigns and elections, Charlie Crist, Democratic House members, Democratic Party, Elaine Marshall, Election Day, FL, Florida, GA, Georgia, GOP, Gubernatorial races, John Boozman, John Kerry, John McCain, Joseph Cao, LA, lean Democratic, lean Republican, likely Republican, Louisiana, Marco Rubio, midterm electorate, Mike Beebe, Mississippi, MS, Nathan Deal, NC, North Carolina, November 2, Old Confederacy, political crosswinds, Richard Burr, Rick Perry, Rick Scott, ronnie sparks, Roy Barnes, Senate Democrat, South, Tennessee, Texas, TN, TX, VA, Virginia
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Friday, August 13th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
When you add it all up, Tuesday produced four gubernatorial general election contests—three in states currently controlled by Republicans—in which the Democratic candidate is, at the moment anyway, the front-runner. Quite a tonic for distressed donkeys everywhere.
In Colorado, The Republican gubernatorial primary was a messy affair in which the “winner” – little-known, underfinanced, and rather kooky Tea Party activist Dan Maes – will now come under sustained pressure to fold his campaign and allow the state party to pick a more suitable candidate (possibly Jane Norton), in hopes of also squeezing Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo out of the race. If GOPers don’t pull off this gymnastic series of maneuvers, Democratic nominee John Hickenlooper will be a heavy favorite in November.
Meanwhile, in the Democratic senatorial primary, appointed Senator Michael Bennet survived what was beginning to look like a political death spiral. He dispatched former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff by an eight-point margin, with especially robust performance in the Denver suburbs in what will be perceived as a victory for the White House. He will now face district attorney and Tea Party favorite Ken Buck (R), who has shown a distinct proclivity for self-inflicted verbal wounds. Buck defeated former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton in the Republican primary mainly by piling up large margins in his home turf near Ft. Collins.
In Connecticut, an odd role reversal occurred in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Former netroots idol Ned Lamont ran a campaign focused on imposing fiscal discipline and improving the business climate and lost rather dramatically to former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, who has a “centrist” background but ran as something of a populist. Malloy will face former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, a conventional conservative who held off Lt. Gov. Michele Fedele.
These two contests were also something of a test for Connecticut’s strong system of public financing of campaigns: Malloy and Fedele received public financing, while Lamont and Foley self-funded. Unfortunately for Malloy, the portion of the Connecticut law that provided for “triggering” larger grants for candidates facing self-funders has been invalidated for the general election. But according to the polls, Malloy will be the favorite in November.
In Minnesota, former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton continued his political comeback by narrowly winning the gubernatorial nomination against party-endorsed State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. Dayton is the early favorite over Republican nominee Tom Emmer, who is probably too conservative for the state, and will also likely lose votes to Independence Party nominee Tom Horner.
And in Georgia, the vicious GOP gubernatorial runoff, in a mild upset, went to former congressman Nathan Deal, who is both a conservative ideologue and the candidate of the state’s GOP establishment. Deal defeated self-styled “conservative reformer” Karen Handel, by just an eyelash.
This contest featured a lot of national intervention, with Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee campaigning for Deal and Sarah Palin campaigning for Handel (Mitt Romney also did robocalls for the loser). Handel’s quick concession and endorsement of Deal provided some hope among Republicans that the party would unite after the bitter primary and runoff, in the face of a challenge from former Gov. Roy Barnes, who’s been running more or less even with the various Republican candidates in the polls.
Next Tuesday, Washington State (with its unusual system in which the top two primary candidates regardless of party proceed to the general election) and Wyoming are holding primaries. The much-higher-profile Florida and Arizona primaries follow on August 24.
In the Florida, the initial appeal of the two hugely self-funded candidates, Democrat billionaire Bob Greene and Republican billionaire Rick Scott, seems to be fading as the primary approaches.
In the Democratic Senatorial primary, a Feldman poll taken for congressman Kendrick Meek shows him edging ahead of Greene after a week or so of very bad publicity about the billionaire’s personal life.
Meanwhile, in the Republican gubernatorial primary, both Mason-Dixon and the Tarrance Group have new polls showing previously left-for-dead Attorney General Bob McCollum moving ahead of Rick Scott, a former hospital chain executive. Mason-Dixon also shows that the savage competition between the Republicans has lifted Democrat Alex Sink into the lead in the general election.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Photo Credit: Mykl Roventine
Tags: Alex Sink, Andrew Romanoff, Bob Greene, Bob McCollum, Dan Maes, Dan Malloy, Jane Norton, John Hickenlooper, Karen Handel, Ken Buck, Kendrick Meek, Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Mark Dayton, Michael Bennet, Michele Fedele, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Nathan Deal, Ned Lamont, Newt Gingrich, Primaries, Rick Scott, Roy Barnes, Sarah Palin, Tea Party, Tom Emmer, Tom Foley, Tom Horner, Tom Tancredo
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Tuesday, August 10th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
This is the busiest primary day since the June 8 blockbuster, with three states (CO, CT and MN) holding primaries and a fourth (GA) holding a runoff. So there’s a lot of ground to cover.
Colorado
A factor in all the Colorado races is that most counties in the state went to an all-mail-ballot system this year, which could boost overall turnout but will definitely affect the timing of votes (though Colorado’s had heavy early voting for a while now).
Colorado’s Senate races have become very competitive in both parties coming down the stretch. Appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) got hit with a controversial (in its timing) New York Times piece about his involvement in an unsuccessful investment by the Denver public schools, which immediately generated an attack ad by his opponent, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), who has been pounding Bennet for weeks as someone too close to Wall Street. Late polls show a very close race, with Survey USA indicating Romanoff has moved ahead while PPP shows Bennet hanging onto a small lead.
On the Republican side, polls also differ as to whether district attorney Ken Buck has maintained his lead over former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, despite his recent gaff-a-thon. Norton surprised a lot of observers by inviting John McCain into the state to campaign with her at the very end; we’ll see if she knew what she was doing. While both candidates are quite conservative, Buck’s the preferred candidate of the Tea Party folk and the national conservative chattering classes, so if he wins they will claim another Establishment scalp.
The ongoing meltdown known as the Colorado Republican gubernatorial contest is also ending with no clear leader; one poll has Tea Party activist Dan Maes narrowly leading; the other shows former congressman Scott McInnis narrowly regaining the lead. As you may have heard, McInnis’ campaign imploded in July when the Denver Post revealed that a wonky series of columns he “wrote” as part of a lucrative think tank contract were heavily plagiarized. But Maes has been hounded by campaign finance violations and poor fundraising, and also earned heavy derision by claiming a popular bike-sharing program in which Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Hickenlooper was involved is in fact part of a United Nations plot to take over Denver. You really can’t make this stuff up.
The “winner” of this primary will immediately be under heavy pressure to drop out and allow the state party to choose a more electable candidate, and also to beg former congressman Tom Tancredo to close down his campaign on the far-right, theocratic Constitution Party ticket, which polls indicate would split the GOP vote in half and guarantee a Hickenlooper victory.
Georgia
Rivaling Colorado in inter-Republican drama has been the gubernatorial runoff in Georgia, which polls show as coming down to a real nail-biter between primary first-place finisher Karen Handel and former congressman Nathan Deal. Continuing her effort to cast herself as a “conservative reformer” taking on the corrupt “good ol’ boys” of the Republican establishment, Handel has continued to attack Deal’s ethics record and Washington associations. Deal, probably hoping for a very low turnout dominated by ideologues, has pounded Handel for alleged “liberal” heresy on abortion and gay rights. Both campaigns are in danger of being overshadowed by their supporters, with Sarah Palin making a very conspicuous last-day appearance alongside Handel in Atlanta (Mitt Romney is also doing robocalls for Handel), while Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee have campaigned for Deal. Deal also has a massive endorsement list of Republican state legislators owing to Handel’s many attacks on their integrity as a group.
The runoff has become so nasty that Republicans are already planning “unity” events; Democrat Roy Barnes waits in the wings, raising money.
There are two Republican congressional runoffs that will affect turnout patterns; one is for Deal’s old seat in North Georgia, where special election runoff winner Tom Graves will face former state legislator Lee Hawkins for the fourth time in three months. The other is in Handel’s base area, in north metro Atlanta, where longtime conservative congressman John Linder (R) is retiring. His former chief of staff, Rob Woodall, is expected to defeat Jody Hice, a Southern Baptist minister and radio gabber whose billboards feature a reference to the president with a hammer-and-sickle replacing the “c” in the word “change.” Nice.
Connecticut
In Connecticut, both parties have competitive gubernatorial primaries involving self-funded candidates facing challengers who are receiving pretty generous public financing under the state’s Clean Elections system (which is under attack in the courts in the aftermath of the Citizens United decision). Among Democrats, wealthy cable station owner Ned Lamont, famous for his left-bent challenge to Joe Lieberman in 2006, has run a surprisingly “centrist” campaign focused on the state’s many fiscal and economic problems. His challenger, former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, who narrowly lost the gubernatorial nomination four years ago, has been pounding him in a populist vein, while fending off allegations that he helped give a company that did work on his home a no-bid contract as mayor (not something you’d want to do in this state, since that’s what brought down former Gov. John Rowland). Malloy has closed the gap with Lamont in the stretch run, and either candidate could win.
The Republican self-funder is former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, and the publicly-financed challenger is Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele. This race has also featured personal attacks, mainly involving Foley’s ownership interest in a Georgia textile plant that closed, throwing workers out of jobs. Late polls show exceptional instability in this race, but indicate that Fedele is rapidly gaining on Foley.
Meanwhile, former wrestling exec Linda McMahon, who beat former congressman Rob Simmons at the state GOP convention for the official party endorsement, will face Simmons (who reentered the race after dropping out for a while) and Tea Party activist Peter Schiff, but isn’t expected to have much trouble winning.
Minnesota
In Minnesota, the DFL (Minnesota’s unique version of the Democratic Party) gubernatorial primary features the official party candidate (as selected in a state convention that some candidates skipped), state House Speaker Mary Anderson Kelliher, and two wealthy self-funders, former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton and former state legislator Matt Entenza, both of whom have put about $3 million into the race. Dayton has held a steady if not spectacular lead over Kelliher, who hopes to pull a ground-game-driven upset in what could be a very low turnout election. All three Democrats lead certain Republican nominee Tom Emmer in general election polls, partly because the likely candidate of the Independence Party (still around more than a decade after Jesse Ventura’s election), Tom Horner, is pulling a lot of Republican votes. The DFL hasn’t won a governor’s race since 1986, but this could be the year the drought ends.
If you want more details, I’ve done previews of Colorado, Georgia and Connecticut/Minnesota over at FiveThirtyEight.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Photo Credit: brettneilson’s Photostream
Tags: Andrew Romanoff, Dan Maes, Dan Malloy, Jane Norton, Jesse Ventura, Jody Hice, Joe Lieberman, John Hickenlooper, John Linder, John McCain, John Rowland, Karen Handel, Lee Hawkins, linda McMahon, Mark Dayton, Mary Anderson Kelliher, Matt Entenza, Michael Bennet, Michael Fedele, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Nathan Deal, Ned Lamont, Newt Gingrich, Peter Schiff, Primaries, Rob Simmons, Rob Woodall, Roy Barnes, Sarah Palin, Scott McInnis, Tom Emmer, Tom Foley, Tom Graves, Tom Horner, Tom Tancredo
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Friday, August 6th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
It’s been a very busy week on the primary front, with a block of midwestern states — Kansas, Michigan and Missouri — on Tuesday and Tennessee on Thursday. In all four states, a heavy menu of Republican primaries dominated the landscape, with a few notable Democratic tilts.
I did a reasonably thorough summary of the Midwestern primary results for P-Fix on Wednesday, so I’ll focus today on Tennessee.
With Mike McWherter — son of popular former Gov. Ned McWherter — being unopposed for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, the GOP contest drew the most attention. As expected, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, scion of the Pilot Oil fortune, used a big financial advantage and a low-key “competence” message to soundly defeat two opponents, Chattanooga Rep. Zach Wamp and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, who both tried to outflank Haslam on the Right. Haslam drew 48 percent of the vote (Tennessee does not have runoffs), with Christian Right favorite Wamp finishing second with 29 percent and Ramsey third with 20 percent. Haslam carried most of the state outside Wamp’s district and a few northeast counties in Ramsey’s base.
The real fireworks in Tennessee involved four highly competitive Republican U.S. House primaries. In Wamp’s 3rd district, which is heavily Republican, self-funded radio talk show host Chuck Fleischmann (backed by Mike Huckabee, whose 2008 campaign manager, Chip Saltsman, ran Fleischmann’s campaign) edged Robin Smith — a former state party chair — who was backed by a host of DC-based conservative groups, most notably the Club for Growth (which was embarrassed when a “for more information” phone number in an anti-Fleischmann mailer turned out to connect callers to a phone sex service).
Two other competitive GOP races were in potential pick-up districts where Blue Dog Democrats are retiring. In Bart Gordon’s 6th district, State Senator Diane Black won a very nasty three-way contest against fellow state senator Jim Tracy and conservative activist Lou Ann Zelenik. Zelenik heated up this race with repeated ethics allegations against front-runner Black, but made national news by opposing construction of an Islamic mosque in the college town of Murfreesboro (she claimed it would be a base for the imposition of Sharia law in Tennessee, believe it or not). In the end, it came down to geography, with Black heavily winning her state senate district while Tracy and Zelenik split the vote in their base county of Rutherford. There was also a competitive Democratic primary in the 6th, won by decorated war veteran Brett Carter, who edged the underfunded but evocatively named Henry Clay Barry.
In John Tanner’s West Tennessee 8th district, where veteran state legislator Roy Herron easily won the Democratic nomination, Republican put on what is reported to be the most expensive House primary in the country. Nationally-recruited farmer and gospel singer Stephen Fincher battled two massively self-funded opponents, broadcast entrepreneur George Flinn and physician Ron Kirkland in a race where total expenditures ranged up towards $8 million, with $3 million spent by Flinn alone. Despite concerted attacks on Fincher for receiving millions in farm subsidies, he won easily with half the vote, dominated his opponents in the areas of the district most remote from Memphis.
And in the Nashville-based 5th district, eleven Republicans competed for the right to wage an uphill battle against Rep. Jim Cooper in a district comfortably won by Barack Obama in 2008. The best-financed candidate, David Hall, defeated Huckabee-backed home-school activist Jeff Hartline and Sarah Palin’s latest “Mama Grizzly,” entertainment attorney CeCe Heil.
Finally, it wasn’t really a competitive primary, but it got attention: 9th district Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen drew a second consecutive opponent who claimed the district required African-American representation. But former Memphis Mayor Will Herenton was widely regarded as an embarrassment, and after Cohen was endorsed by President Obama, former 9th district congressman Harold Ford, Sr., and the Congressional Black Caucus, Cohen breezed to a 79-21 win.
Next Tuesday primaries are being held in Colorado, Connecticut and Minnesota, along with a runoff in Georgia. Colorado features very competitive Senate primaries in both parties (Bennet v. Romanoff among Democrats, Buck v. Norton among Republicans), and a strange GOP gubernatorial primary overshadowed by the meltdown of front-runner Scott McInnis and the third-party candidacy of Tom Tancredo. Connecticut has a close Democratic gubernatorial contest between 2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont and Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, along with a multi-candidate challenge to Republican Senate front-runner and former wrestling executive Linda McMahon. Minnesota has a very competitive Democratic gubernatorial primary, in which the best-known candidate is former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton. And Georgia’s Republican gubernatorial runoff has become a vicious cage match, with first-place primary finisher, Karen Handel, backed by Sarah Palin, battling former congressman Nathan Deal, backed by Newt Gingrich and a big majority of Georgia Republican congressmen and state legislators.
I’ll have previews of all these events next Tuesday.
Photo Credit: J. Stephen Conn’s Photostream
Tags: Andrew Romanoff, Barack Obama, Bart Gordon, Bill Haslam, Brett Carter, CeCe Heil, Chip Saltsmann, Chuck Fleischmann, Dan Malloy, David Hall, Diane Black, George Flinn, Harold Ford, Henry Clay Barry, Jane Norton, Jeff Hartline, Jim Cooper, Jim Tracy, John Tanner, Karen Handel, Ken Buck, linda McMahon, Lou Ann Zelenik, Mark Dayton, Michael Bennet, Mike Huckabee, Mike McWherter, Nathan Deal, Ned Lamont, Ned McWherter, Newt Gingrich, Robin Smith, Ron Kirkland, Ron Ramsey, Roy Herron, Sarah Palin, Scott McInnis, Stephen Fincher, Steve Cohen, Tom Tancredo, Will Herenton, Zach Wamp
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Friday, July 23rd, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
I won’t go through the all the results for Tuesday’s Georgia primary, since an earlier P-Fix post covered the basics. But I will mention a few details that I omitted in the quick piece I did on Wednesday.
In the gubernatorial contest, while Democrat Roy Barnes looks highly competitive for the general election (particularly if the Republican runoff gets as nasty as it looks like it may), it’s worth noting that turnout for the GOP primary was just under 700,000, while turnout for the Democratic side was just under 400,000. While turnout in both parties was terrible, and some of the disparity was attributable to the more competitive nature of the GOP battle (and the attendant television ads), it’s a reminder that this state which didn’t have a Republican governor from the early days of Reconstruction until 2002 now has a decided red tint. To win, Barnes will need to run a very good campaign (he’s certainly reconfirmed his reputation as an outstanding fundraiser), while taking advantage of the opportunities the GOP has created in eight years of lackluster governance of the state, and in the extremism of the primary messages of its candidates this year. If Barnes does win, he would interrupt what would otherwise certainly be a blatant Republican gerrymandering effort, made all the worse by Georgia’s acquisition of an additional congressional district.
A second observation is that this is one GOP primary where geography seemed to matter more than ideology or the association of this or that candidate with the Tea Party or some national conservative figure. I’ve posted a fairly elaborate analysis of this topic at FiveThirtyEight, but suffice it to say that Karen Handel finished first more because she is from vote-rich metro Atlanta than because she was endorsed by Jan Brewer and Sarah Palin. The endorsements definitely helped her overcome a financial deficit by generating free media, but in the end half the primary vote was cast in her base region, and that was the most important difference. And that’s also why she has to be considered a heavy favorite in the runoff, since her opponent, Nathan Deal, did well only in his north Georgia base, which provides a much smaller segment of the GOP vote. It’s a measure of the importance of geography that Handel trounced Deal in the Atlanta suburb of Cobb County, home of Deal’s padrone, Newt Gingrich.
Perhaps because of this disadvantage, Deal looks likely to spend the three-week runoff attacking Handel for insufficient conservatism, which won’t be easy given her Palin association and her own harsh record on issues ranging from taxes (she wants to abolish the state income taxes and rely instead on regressive consumption taxes to finance state government) to immigration (as Secretary of State, she initiated a harsh voter ID system that ensnared a good many native citizen voters on primary day). So far Deal has mainly pounded Handel for supporting a rape-and-incest exception to an abortion ban, which used to be an acceptable conservative position, and for making a small contribution to the Log Cabin Republicans back when she was running for office in culturally tolerant Fulton County (Atlanta). Since Handel’s main attack line on Deal has involved ethics allegations, this could be a truly nasty culture-war dominated runoff that could drive up both candidates’ negatives.
In terms of the congressional races, there will be four Republican runoffs on August 10, two in safe Republican districts, one in a safe Democratic district, and one to choose an opponent for theoretically vulnerable Democrat John Barrow (D-GA) (though he is likely to have a big financial advantage and Barack Obama carried his district).
Down-ballot, there will be a highly contentious Republican runoff for Attorney General that could boost statewide turnout. And though it’s not directly connected to the primaries, the general election will be complicated by the fact that outgoing GOP Gov. Sonny Perdue is backing an independent candidate for State School Superintendent because the Republican nominee opposes accepting Race to the Top dollars.
The next primary is in Oklahoma on July 27, where there are competitive gubernatorial contests in both parties.
In polling news, PPP has had some interesting assessments of the Florida governor’s race. The late but free-spending entry of controversial former hospital executive and health reform opponent Rick Scott in the GOP contest has upset a lot of apple carts. A primary survey shows Scott beating long-time front-runner and party warhorse Bill McCollum 43-29, mainly by driving McCollum’s approval ratio among Florida Republicans to a dismal 26-40. But a general election poll shows Democrat Alex Sink beating either Republican (along with independent candidate Bud Chiles). And in the general electorate, Scott’s approval ratio is 23-41 and McCollum’s a truly disastrous 16-51. Like Georgia, this is a state where a Democratic gubernatorial victory could have major implications for redistricting.
In non-candidate polling news, Mark Blumenthal of pollster.com has a solid and very thorough critique of the new Politico “Power and the People” surveys by Mark Penn comparing the views of Americans generally with those of “D.C. Elites.”
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Photo credit: Chuck “Caveman” Coker’s Photostream
Tags: Alex Sink, Atlanta, Barack Obama, Bill McCollum, Bud Chiles, Campaigns and elections, Democratic Party, FiveThirtyEight, Florida, Georgia, GOP, Jan Brewer, John Barrow, Karen Handel, Mark Blumenthal, Mark Penn, Nathan Deal, Newt Gingrich, Oklahoma, Politics and politicians, Republican Party, Rick Scott, Roy Barnes, Sarah Palin, Sonny Perdue
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Wednesday, July 21st, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
I’ve found this year’s primaries in my home state of Georgia to be very interesting. Clearly, Georgians do not agree. Despite a host of competitive contests in both parties, total turnout in yesterday’s primaries was about 22 percent, which is pretty pathetic.
In any event, the consequences wrought by those few voters were pretty interesting. On the Democratic side, former governor Roy Barnes took the next step in his attempted redemption from a huge stumble in 2002, when his grossly overconfident re-election campaign was upset by a party-switching good ol’ boy named Sonny Perdue. This time around Barnes impressively defeated an African-American statewide elected official by a three-to-one margin, doing especially well in heavily African-American urban areas. Two Democratic congressmen, Hank Johnson and John Barrow, survived primary challenges.
Republicans set themselves up for some potentially wild-and-crazy runoffs. Sarah Palin’s candidate, Karen Handel, will face Newt Gingrich’s candidate, Nathan Deal, on August 10. All kinds of nastiness between these two candidate broke out late in the primary contest; Handel has basically called Deal a crook and Deal has basically called Handel a godless liberal. It’s not likely to get more civil in the runoff.
The Republican congressional primaries produced some odd results, too. You have to have some sympathy for 9th district congressman Tom Graves. He won his gig after a special election in May and then a runoff in June, all because Nathan Deal resigned the seat to (take your pick) devote more time to his gubernatorial campaign or short-circuit an ethics investigation. Then he had to run for a full term in yesterday’s primary, and once again, he’s in a runoff against the same candidate, Lee Hawkins. So Graves and Hawkins will be facing each other for the fourth time in three months.
Then you’ve got state Rep. Clay Cox (R-GA), who was endorsed by a who’s-who of Georgia Republican politics in his bid to succeed the venerable right-winger John Linder in a safe GOP district. Cox dutifully endorsed Linder’s hobby-horse, the “Fair Tax” proposal, and did everything else expected of him. But he finished a poor third, losing not only to Linder’s former chief of staff, Rob Woodall, but also to talk radio host Jody Hice.
In general, the August 10 runoffs will be mostly a Republican affair, and in that rarefied company, we can expect a lot of more-conservative-than-thou one-upsmanship. Looking forward to the general election, Democrats are in reasonably good shape to do relatively well in this red state, in this bad year.
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Photo credit: 55thstreet’s Photostream
Tags: Campaigns and elections, Clay Cox, conservatives, Democratic Party, Fair Tax, Georgia, Hank Johnson, Jody Hice, John Barrow, John Linder, Karen Handel, Lee Hawkins, Nathan Deal, Newt Gingrich, Politics and politicians, Republican Party, Rob Woodall, Roy Barnes, Sarah Palin, Sonny Perdue, Tom Graves
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Tuesday, July 20th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Today’s major primary is in Georgia, and I covered the Peach State contests pretty thoroughly last week (for more detail, see this preview at FiveThirtyEight). An update, though: one late poll of the Republican gubernatorial race, by Magellan Strategies, shows Karen Handel blowing out to a big lead and long-time front-runner John Oxendine fading fast, with Nathan Deal and Eric Johnson battling for a runoff spot.
The primary calendar going forward includes Oklahoma on July 27; Kansas, Michigan and Missouri on August 3; Tennessee on August 5; and Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia (runoffs) and Minnesota on August 10. The general election calendar for November picked up an additional contest, with West Virginia formally scheduling a special election for the late Sen. Bob Byrd’s seat. The candidates are expected to be West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin, a Democrat, and Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), with the special election statute enabling the latter to run concurrently for re-election and for the Senate.
Second-quarter fundraising figures for federal contests have been trickling out during the last week, and the number that drew the most attention was probably the 4.5 million haul brought in by Florida Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio, more than doubling the funds raised by apostate Gov. Charlie Crist. On the other hand, a new PPP survey of the Florida Senate contest shows Crist maintaining a 35-29 lead over Rubio in a three-way race with Democrat Kendrick Meek (who has 17 percent); 52 percent of Crist’s support is from Democrats. In Nevada, controversial Republican nominee Sharron Angle outraised Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) by $400,000 ($2.6 million to $2.2 million), though again, the latest poll, from Mason-Dixon, showed Reid now up by 44-37. And in CA, incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) had a very good second quarter, raising $4.6 million. Her Republican challenger, Carly Fiorina, raised $3 million, but $1.1 million of that total was a loan from her own personal wealth. The latest poll there, from Rasmussen, shows Boxer up by seven points, 49-42. The largest disconnect between money and public opinion is in Arkansas, where incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) outraised Republican John Boozman by a four-to-one margin (though a lot of that was to finance her primary and runoff battles with Bill Halter); even Lincoln’s own polling, from Benenson, shows her trailing Boozman 45-36, while other polls have her down 2-1.
Poll Watch
In other polling news, Rasmussen has Democrat Richard Blumenthal maintaining a 53-40 lead over Republican Linda McMahon in the Connecticut Senate race; and shows Republican Paul LePage holding a 39-31 lead over Democrat Libby Mitchell (with independent Eliot Cutler at 15 percent) in the Maine gubernatorial contest. A Glengariff Group poll for the Detroit News of the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary shows a close three-way race among congressman Peter Hoekstra, Attorney General Mike Cox, and businessman Rick Snyder. The little-known “outsider” Snyder seems to have a lot of momentum. And in non-election polling news, an ABC/Washington Post survey on Elena Kagan’s Supreme Court nomination shows support for her confirmation continuing to lead opposition by a 53-25 margin.
Photo credit: Hjl’s Photostream
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
Tags: Barbara Boxer, Bill Halter, Blanche Lincoln, Bob Byrd, Campaigns and elections, Carly Fiorina, Charlie Crist, Colorado, Connecticut, conservatives, Democratic Party, Elena Kagan, Eliot Cutler, Eric Johnson, FiveThirtyEight, Georgia, Harry Reid, Joe Manchin, John Boozman, John Oxendine, Kansas, Karen Handel, Kendrick Meek, Libby Mitchell, linda McMahon, Magellan Stategies, Marco Rubio, Michigan, Mike Cox, Minnesota, Missouri, Nathan Deal, Oklahoma, Paul LePage, Peter Hoekstra, Politics and politicians, progressives, Republican Party, Richard Blumenthal, Rick Snyder, Sharron Angle, Shelley Moore Capito, Tennessee
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Friday, July 16th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
As alert readers know by now, Robert Bentley won the Republican gubernatorial runoff in Alabama, with Terri Sewell winning the 7th district Democratic congressional nomination (tantamount to election), and Martha Roby turning back viral ad icon Rick Barber for the Republican nomination in the 2nd congressional district. My write-up of the results can be found here.
The next big primary state is Georgia, where voters go to the polls next Tuesday, July 20. There are competitive primaries for governor in both parties; and competitive Republican primaries for Congress in no fewer than six districts, with two Democratic congressional primaries that have drawn some attention. Georgia has a 50 percent nomination requirement, which means many contests will go to a runoff on August 10. This is also a state with a history of substantial early voting, though as of last week, mail-in and in-person ballots were down from prior elections, perhaps indicating a low turnout.
The Republican gubernatorial race (incumbent Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue is term-limited) has heated up in the last week, with a bunch of polls, sharp exchanges between candidates, and interventions by national figures. For most of the cycle, the front-runner has been State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, though he’s been considered vulnerable because of long-pending ethics investigations of alleged illegal contributions to his campaign by insurance companies. Three other candidates—former Secretary of State Karen Handel, former congressman Nathan Deal (who has some ethics issues of his own, which appeared to speed his departure from Congress), and state senator Eric Johnson—have been jockeying for a runoff position opposite Oxendine, though at least two polls now show the front-runner slipping into third place. Handel, whose campaign message closely resembles that of South Carolina gubernatorial nominee Nikki Haley (a “conservative reformer” fighting the “corrupt good old boys”), has been the candidate on the move of late, and got priceless attention this week from a Facebook endorsement by Sarah Palin. Deal countered with an endorsement from Georgian Newt Gingrich. Both Oxendine and Deal have been pounding Handel for alleged heresy on abortion and gay rights. And meanwhile, Johnson has been heavily running television ads, and has moved up into the teens in at least one poll. In other words, just about anything could happen on Tuesday, though Handel looks almost sure to have a runoff spot.
In terms of issues, all the GOP candidates have been competing to show avid support for an Arizona-style illegal immigration crackdown (Deal’s made this a signature issue, while Handel has sported an endorsement from Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer), and two candidates, Oxendine and Handel, have proposed abolition of the state’s income tax, reflecting the wild popularity of national “Fair Tax” proposals among Georgia Republicans. And all the candidates are hard-core conservatives on cultural issues, though Handel got into a fight with Georgia Right-to-Life by opposing its proposal to restrict IV fertilization procedures.
On the Democratic side, the big question all along has been whether former Gov. Roy Barnes, who lost to Perdue in a big upset eight years ago, can win the primary without a runoff, as most recent polls have suggested he will. Barnes’ most prominent challenger, Attorney General Thurbert Baker, got off to a very late start in television advertising, and is now trying to attract enough support from his fellow African-Americans to deny Barnes the win (African-Americans typically cast close to half the votes in Democratic primaries in Georgia). Baker got a significant boost earlier this week with an endorsement from President Bill Clinton (Baker was a big Human Rights Campaign supporter in 2008), and has been promoting legalization of electronic bingo as a way to raise money for K-12 education. But Barnes has strong African-American support of his own; just today he was endorsed by Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed. Other significant candidates who could soak up some votes include former Secretary of State David Poythress, who’s been running an under-the-radar web-focused campaign, and former state House Democratic leader Dubose Porter, whose wife, Carol, is the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor.
On the congressional front, the state’s two white (and Blue Doggy) Democratic House members, Jim Marshall and John Barrow, are as usual considered vulnerable in November. Marshall, whose district went solidly for John McCain, has drawn a strong opponent in state representative Scott Austin, who should win the GOP nomination easily on Tuesday. Barrow, whose district is marginally Democratic even in presidential years, has for the second time drawn a primary challenge from former state representative Regina Thomas, whom he beat 3-1 in 2008. Thomas got some help from in-district anger at Barrow’s vote against health care reform, but his massive financial advantage should get him over the line. Meanwhile, Tea Party-backed candidate Ray McKinney is favored over former fire chief Carl Smith for the right to oppose Barrow, though that race could easily go to a runoff.
There are big and active Republican primaries in the districts of African-American congressmen David Scott and Hank Johnson (who also faces former Dekalb County executive Vernon Jones, something of a party renegade, in the primary but isn’t expected to lose), who has had recent health problems, but Republicans would have to get very lucky to become competitive in either place.
An open seat in the north metro Atlanta 7th district has spawned a mammoth eight-candidate Republican primary to succeed John Linder, with every single candidate endorsing Linder’s “Fair Tax” proposal. Former state representative Clay Cox and former Linder chief of staff Rob Woodall are the favorite to make a runoff, though Christian Right figure Jody Hice also has some support.
And up in the North Georgia 9th district, until recently represented by gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal, the winner of last month’s special election, Tea Party favorite and former state representative Tom Graves, must face pretty much the same field of opponents in the primary, but is expected to win.
In non-Georgia political news, the big development was probably the implosion of the Colorado gubernatorial campaign of former congressman (and GOP front-runner) Scott McInnis, accused of plagiarizing portions of a think-tank paper for which he was grossly overpaid a few years ago. Colorado Republicans are in a quandary; the only other candidate on the primary ballot, Don Maes, has struggled to raise money, and has, ironically, also been cited for campaign finance violations. To hand-pick another viable candidate, party leaders would have to wait for the primary to occur and then beg the winner to step aside.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
Photo credit: Airno’s Photostream
Tags: Alabama, Bill Clinton, Campaigns and elections, Carl Smith, Carol Porter, Clay Cox, Colorado, conservatives, David Poythress, David Scott, Democratic Party, Don Maes, Dubose Porter, Education, Eric Johnson, Facebook, Georgia, Hank Johnson, Human Rights Campaign, immigration reform, income tax, Jan Brewer, Jim Marshall, Jody Hice, John Barrow, John Linder, John McCain, John Oxendine, Karen Handel, Kasim Reed, Martha Roby, Nathan Deal, Newt Gingrich, Nikki Haley, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Ray McKinney, Regina Thomas, Republican Party, Rick Barber, Right-to-Life, Rob Woodall, Robert Bentley, Roy Barnes, Sarah Palin, Scott Austin, Scott McInnis, Senate, Sonny Perdue, Taxes, Tea Party, Terri Sewell, Thurbert Baker, Tom Graves, Vernon Jones
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Thursday, July 15th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
It didn’t get the kind of national attention that Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Karen Handel received, but it could matter down the road: Newt Gingrich has endorsed his former House colleague Nathan Deal for governor of Georgia, just a week before the July 20 primary. Moreover, Gingrich offered his imprimatur in Georgia, not on a Facebook site (Palin’s only venue for Handel so far), and has cut an ad for the North Georgia party-switcher.
I’d say this is a pretty risky gambit for Newt, taking on Palin in his own home state, all the more because this is an extremely unstable race. Five different polling outfits have released surveys of this contest since July 1, and the results are all over the place. Two polls, from Survey USA and Mason-Dixon, have shown longtime frontrunner John Oxendine maintaining his lead with over 30 percent of the vote, and Karen Handel moving up into second place at 23 percent. Two other polls, from Insider Advantage and Magellan, have Oxendine’s support collapsing down into the teens; IA had him tied with Handel, and Magellan had Handel surging into the lead. All four polls had Nathan Deal bumping along in the teens as well, and not showing much momentum.
Now Rasmussen‘s weighed in with a poll showing Handel and Deal tied for the lead at 25 percent, with Oxendine semi-collapsing back to 20 percent.
If Rasmussen’s right, and Handel and Deal wind up in a runoff, the Newt-Versus-Sarah story-line will get a lot more play, and pressure on Palin to personally campaign for her latest Mama Grizzly will grow intense.
All this activity is preliminary, of course, to the general election, and the latest poll to test various Republicans against likely Democratic nominee Roy Barnes, the Mason-Dixon survey, shows the former governor tied with Oxendine, up eleven points over Handel, and up eighteen points over Deal.
Photo Credit: Auburnxc’s Photostream
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Tags: John Oxendine, Karen Handel, Nathan Deal, Newt Gingrich, Primaries, Sarah Palin
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Tuesday, July 13th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Today’s political feature is the runoff in Alabama, which I previewed in the last PPI political memo. As noted then, turnout patterns will probably be the determining factor in the GOP gubernatorial runoff, with the big question being whether Democrats will cross over in significant numbers. In the congressional runoffs, Democrat Terri Sewell is the favorite to win virtual election to the House in the 7th district seat vacated by unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Artur Davis, and Martha Roby should be able to turn back viral ad star Rick Barber in the Republican contest in the 2nd district. In most of the state, voters will be suffering through hot, humid weather with possible thunderstorms.
The primary state up next on the calendar is Georgia on July 20, and the highly competitive Republican gubernatorial primary there was roiled yesterday by Sarah Palin’s endorsement of former Secretary of State Karen Handel. It’s not clear yet whether Palin’s endorsement was one of those one-off interventions that have often characterized her activity this year (viz. her endorsement of Terry Brandstad in Iowa without so much as a phone conversation), or will be followed up by more active engagement. But it was well-timed: Handel has been moving up in the polls recently, holding a strong second place behind long-time front-runner John Oxendine in a SUSA poll released last week. Much as happened in Iowa, Georgia’s social conservatives have not reacted well to Palin’s endorsement, and former congressman Nathan Deal, who has been battling Handel for a runoff spot, put out a release expressing disappointment in Palin for supporting “the most liberal Republican in this race.”
Rhetoric aside, Handel’s profile in the race is actually pretty similar to that of another recent Palin endorsee, South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, at least before hamhanded allegations about Haley’s sex life and background took over news coverage and vaulted her to a landslide runoff victory. Like Haley, Handel is positioning herself as a “conservative reformer” taking on the state GOP’s good ol’ boys, and her single biggest problem, poor fundraising, may have been offset by the attention she’ll get from Palin’s endorsement. Right now an Oxendine-Handel runoff is the most likely outcome next Tuesday, though both Deal and a fourth candidate, Eric Johnson (who’s been running copious television ads) will fight her tooth and nail to the finish.
An even bigger name than Palin got involved in Georgia’s Democratic gubernatorial primary over the weekend, as former president Bill Clinton endorsed Attorney General Thurbert Baker. This wasn’t that big a surprise, since Baker was Hillary Clinton’s highest-profile Georgia supporter in 2008 (at least after John Lewis defected to the Obama camp). And there are no signs that the Big Dog will actually show up in Georgia to thump the tubs for Thurbert. But Baker definitely needs the help. Long assumed to have a virtual lock on a runoff spot opposite former Gov. Roy Barnes, Baker’s late-developing campaign has struggled to get off the ground, and recent polls show Barnes headed for a primary victory without a runoff (there are two other significant candidates on the ballot: former Secretary of State David Poythress and Democratic state legislative leader Dubose Porter). With some more attention, Baker might have a chance to keep Barnes below 50 percent: he’s an African-American in a state where a majority of the likely Democratic primary voters are African-American, and he’s lately found a distinctive issue by coming out for an electronic bingo initiative to help forestall education cuts.
In polling news, Rasmussen has a survey of general election matchups in the Colorado Senate race, showing another beneficiary of a Bill Clinton endorsement, former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, running a bit better than incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) against either of the two main Republican candidates, Ken Buck or Jane Norton. Colorado’s primary is four weeks from today.
Quinnipiac has released a new poll of the PA governor’s race, which, as in its May survey, shows Democrat Dan Onorato within single digits of Republican Tom Corbett, who leads 44-37.
The first poll in a good while in Indiana, by Rasmussen, shows Republican Dan Coats continuing to hold a big (51-30) lead over Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IA) for the Senate, though Ellsworth’s approval/disapproval ratio remains relatively strong at 42-29.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Photo Credit: BryanSwan’s Photostream
Tags: Andrew Romanoff, Arthur Davis, Bill Clinton, Brad Ellsworth, Dan Coats, Dan Onorato, David Poythress, Dubose Porter, Eric Johnson, Hillary Clinton, Jane Norton, John Lewis, John Oxendine, Karen Handel, Ken Buck, Martha Roby, Michael Bennet, Nathan Deal, Nikki Haley, Primaries, Rick Barber, Roy Barnes, Sarah Palin, Terri Sewell, Terry Branstad, Thurbert Baker, Tom Corbett
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Thursday, July 8th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
As regular readers might recall, back in May I did an analysis which predicted that the furor over immigration policy touched off in Arizona would have its greatest political impact not in the southwest or west coast, but in the Deep South, where a combination of new and highly visible Hispanic populations, low Hispanic voting levels, and red-hot Republican primaries would likely bring the issue to the forefront.
Nothing that’s happened since then has made me change my mind about that, though southern Republican unanimity on backing the Arizona law and replicating it everywhere has reduced the salience of immigration as a differentiator in some GOP primaries, most notably in South Carolina (where in any event the Nikki Haley saga eclipsed everything else).
But in Georgia, whose primary is on July 20, immigration is indeed a big issue in the gubernatorial contest, as reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jim Galloway:
For the next 13 days, all stops are off when it comes to debating the issue of illegal immigration.
The Obama administration’s court challenge to the Arizona law that gives its peace officers the authority to stop and impound undocumented residents is already serving as a stick to a wasp nest in Georgia’s race for governor.
Former congressman Nathan Deal’s first TV ad of the primary season on Wednesday focused on illegal immigration and a promise that Georgia would soon have an Arizona-style law.
On the answering machines of tens of thousands of GOP voters, former secretary of state Karen Handel left a message of endorsement from Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer. Expect to see Brewer at Handel’s side before the July 20 vote.
The climate doesn’t brook dissent. Democrats have been uniformly silent on the Arizona issue.
As it happens, Deal and Handel are battling for a runoff spot. Handel and long-time Republican front-runner John Oxendine are also proposing radical changes in the state tax code, abolishing income taxes entirely, but so far that momentous issue is not getting the kind of attention generated by the action of another state on immigration three time zones away.
Photo credit: Th.omas’ Photostream
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Tags: Arizona, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Georgia, GOP, Immigration, Jan Brewer, Jim Galloway, John Oxendine, Karen Handel, Nathan Deal, Nikki Haley, Republican Party, South Carolina
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Tuesday, July 6th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Having looked at the overall landscape of House and Senate elections recently, it’s probably time for another overview of gubernatorial contests, which will have a bearing not only on state policies but on the upcoming decennial round of redistricting.
There are 37 governorships up for grabs in November, including 19 held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans, which closely reflects the narrow 26-24 Democratic advantage in gubernatorial offices overall. How many of these races are competitive? Well, according to the (subscription-only) Cook Political Report’s Jennifer Duffy, 18 of them, or nearly half, are toss-ups, including eight now held by Democrats and ten by Republicans. Add in eight more that are rated as leaning in one direction or another, and that makes an amazing 26 competitive gubernatorial races, and a range of possible outcomes that’s all over the lot, and won’t necessarily reflect the congressional results. For one thing, even if you concede a Republican “tide” this year, the competitive races are largely in states carried by Barack Obama in 2008: that includes 12 of the 14 currently held by Democrats, and 8 of the 12 currently held by Republicans.
There are races all over the country where late primaries and/or competitive dynamics could change. Fully 21 states with gubernatorial races haven’t yet held primaries (counting Alabama, with a Republican runoff next week), including 18 now rated as competitive. And most states are experiencing deep fiscal problems that cut in all sorts of different directions; it’s not automatically clear in many places whether frightening budget shortfalls will benefit Republicans who are talking about cutting back government or Democrats who are resisting new tax cuts and fighting unpopular teacher layoffs and service reductions. And thanks to term limits, retirements, and primary outcomes, the impact of incumbency is also more limited than you might think: only two of the 12 vulnerable Republican seats (Arizona and Texas), and five of the 14 vulnerable Democratic seats (Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Maryland and Ohio) will have an incumbent on the ballot in November. Making things even more confusing, a significant number of former governors are running as non-incumbents this year, including Democrats Jerry Brown of California, Roy Barnes of Georgia and John Kitzhaber of Oregon, and Republicans Terry Branstad of Iowa and Bobby Ehrlich of Maryland.
I’ll be doing a separate memo focusing on redistricting later on, but it’s worth noting that gubernatorial contests could have a huge impact on that process. For example, there are five states certain to gain congressional seats where Republicans currently control the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Texas and Utah. The first four of those states have competitive governor’s races where a Democratic victory could mess up Republican “trifecta” control just in time for redistricting. New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all of which will lose congressional seats, also have very close partisan balances in the state legislature, and Ohio and Pennsylvania have competitive governor’s races. It’s kind of like three-dimensional chess, and well worth watching as we approach November.
Poll Watch
It’s been a quiet week on the polling front. New Rasmussen surveys of the gubernatorial races in Ohio and Pennsylvania show competitive races with GOPers out in front. In Ohio, which has been a very close contest, the poll gives Republican John Kasich a 47-40 lead over incumbent Ted Strickland, his biggest lead in any published poll since a Rasmussen survey in March. In Pennsylvania, however, Rasmussen shows Republican Tom Corbett’s lead over Democrat Dan Onorato dropping from 16 points (49-33) to ten points (49-39) since early June; the 10-point margin is also what PPP reported in its latest Pennsylvania poll.
Meanwhile, in Georgoa, whose primary is on July 20, Insider Advantage has a new poll of the Republican gubernatorial race showing long-time front-runner John Oxendine falling into a tie with Karen Handel at 18 percent, with Nathan Deal at 12 percent. This is a bit counter-intuitive since Oxendine and a fourth candidate, Eric Johnson, have recently been dominating the airwaves with ads, though at Iowa’s Southern Political Report site, John Tures attributes a purported Handel “surge” to her recent endorsement by Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, “the next Sarah Palin.” (I have a separate post at FiveThirtyEight examining Brewer’s new national influence.) It’s probably worth noting that shortly before South Carolina’s June 8 primary, Iowa showed Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer headed for a runoff with Nikki Haley; he instead finished a dismal fourth. We’ll see if the firm has got a better “Handel” on Republican sentiment in Georgia.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Tags: Andre Bauer, Barack Obama, Bobby Ehrlich, Campaigns and elections, Cook Political Report, Dan Onorato, Democratic Party, Eric Johnson, Jan Brewer, Jerry Brown, John Kasich, John Kitzhaber, John Oxendine, John Tures, Karen Handel, Nathan Deal, Nikki Haley, Rasmussen Survey, Republican Party, Roy Barnes, Southern Political Report, Ted Strickland, Terry Branstad, Tom Corbett
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