Posts Tagged ‘
Nikki Haley ’
Friday, October 22nd, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
The title of this piece might seem a bit counterintuitive given the presumed certainty of Republican gains on November 2, but within that context, there really is a surprising amount of uncertainty about which party is likely to get the late breaks in this cycle.
On the one hand, state polling is showing some good signs for Democrats in Senate and some gubernatorial races. Two left-for-dead candidates, Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, have rebounded into highly competitive positions, according to some polls. Joe Manchin of WV seems to have recovered from a near-fatal swoon. Poll numbers for Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut have stabilized, as they have (at a lower level) for Patty Murray of Washington and Barbara Boxer of California. At least one poll shows Robin Carnahan of Missouri with a mini-surge, and Michael Bennet of Colorado seems to have drawn even with Ken Buck. The brief period of hysteria about a possible Tea Party takeover of New York politics has ended in derision. And at the moment, Democrats are optimistic about winning at least one southern governorship, in Florida, and believe they have an outside shot in Georgia and (surprise, surprise) South Carolina as well (polls are showing Nikki Haley losing support and making the race competitive).
But at the same time, certain meta-indicators are ominous for Democrats. Gallup’s last two generic congressional ballot tracking polls have shown Republicans with double-digit leads among likely voters, an unprecedented phenomenon. Worse yet, in a low-turnout scenario, Gallup has Republicans up by 17 percent, which if accurate would produce House gains well above what most analysts have been talking about. And Gallup’s not alone: another highly respected research firm, Pew, put out its own generic ballot poll this week giving Republicans a ten-point advantage among likely voters.
So how can we explain the macro-micro disconnect in polling at this moment? It’s possible that Gallup and Pew just have it wrong (Alan Abramowitz of Emory University has charged Gallup with making crucial errors), and that other generic polls will soon demonstrate that those results are outliers. Another common theory is that statewide races operate according to different dynamics than overall partisan preferences, and that while Republicans may make big House gains, that doesn’t necessarily translate into victory in close statewide races.
At RealClearPolitics today, Sean Trende suggests it’s the state polls that may be off, thanks to inadequate likely voter screens that are modeling the electorate’s partisan composition too favorably to Democrats. Using a partisan composition model based on the two 2009 gubernatorial contests, Trende hypothesizes that Republicans statewide candidates may on average perform better than their polling by a 3-4 percent margin, which would, of course, throw many close races to the GOP.
Complicating all this analysis of public opinion research, of course, is the fact that the two parties’ ground games are just now really kicking in, which could change turnout patterns, along with the phenomenon of very heavy early voting. On this latter front, the preliminary data indicates that Democrats seem to be doing a relatively good job of early voting mobilization, but don’t have the sort of advantage they enjoyed in 2008, and may not have an advantage at all in certain key states (e.g., Colorado, Nevada and Florida).
Then you get into some really hazy phenomena that may affect particular races. The most discussed is California’s Proposition 19, which would legalize small-scale cultivation and use of marijuana. There is a persistent belief among California Democrats that Prop 19 will turn out younger voters (and perhaps African-Americans and Latinos) at higher levels than in other states, giving Democrats a crucial boost in close contests.
But overall, the varying indicators of late trends (unless unanimity suddenly emerges between now and November 2) are providing some real mystery and drama in this bitter cycle, and plenty of questions to mull over in the post-election rumination period that will ensue.
Photo credit: bjornmeansbear
Tags: 2010 midterm election, African-Americans, Alan Abramowitz, Barbara Boxer, California, California’s Proposition 19, Colorado, Connecticut, Democrats, electorate’s partisan, Emory University, Florida, Gallup, Georgia, GOP, Gubernatorial races, heavy early voting, Joe Manchin, Ken Buck, Latinos, left-for-dead, macro-micro disconnect, marijuana, Michael Bennet, Missouri, Nevada, New York, Nikki Haley, November 2, oe Sestak, partisan preferences, Patty Murray, Pennsylvania, Pew, Public opinion, RealClearPolitics, Republican gains, Richard Blumenthal, Robin Carnahan, Russ Feingold, Sean Trende, Senate, South Carolina, southern governorship, state polls, Tea Party, voting mobilization, Washington, Weatherman, Wisconsin, WV
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Friday, July 16th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
As alert readers know by now, Robert Bentley won the Republican gubernatorial runoff in Alabama, with Terri Sewell winning the 7th district Democratic congressional nomination (tantamount to election), and Martha Roby turning back viral ad icon Rick Barber for the Republican nomination in the 2nd congressional district. My write-up of the results can be found here.
The next big primary state is Georgia, where voters go to the polls next Tuesday, July 20. There are competitive primaries for governor in both parties; and competitive Republican primaries for Congress in no fewer than six districts, with two Democratic congressional primaries that have drawn some attention. Georgia has a 50 percent nomination requirement, which means many contests will go to a runoff on August 10. This is also a state with a history of substantial early voting, though as of last week, mail-in and in-person ballots were down from prior elections, perhaps indicating a low turnout.
The Republican gubernatorial race (incumbent Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue is term-limited) has heated up in the last week, with a bunch of polls, sharp exchanges between candidates, and interventions by national figures. For most of the cycle, the front-runner has been State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, though he’s been considered vulnerable because of long-pending ethics investigations of alleged illegal contributions to his campaign by insurance companies. Three other candidates—former Secretary of State Karen Handel, former congressman Nathan Deal (who has some ethics issues of his own, which appeared to speed his departure from Congress), and state senator Eric Johnson—have been jockeying for a runoff position opposite Oxendine, though at least two polls now show the front-runner slipping into third place. Handel, whose campaign message closely resembles that of South Carolina gubernatorial nominee Nikki Haley (a “conservative reformer” fighting the “corrupt good old boys”), has been the candidate on the move of late, and got priceless attention this week from a Facebook endorsement by Sarah Palin. Deal countered with an endorsement from Georgian Newt Gingrich. Both Oxendine and Deal have been pounding Handel for alleged heresy on abortion and gay rights. And meanwhile, Johnson has been heavily running television ads, and has moved up into the teens in at least one poll. In other words, just about anything could happen on Tuesday, though Handel looks almost sure to have a runoff spot.
In terms of issues, all the GOP candidates have been competing to show avid support for an Arizona-style illegal immigration crackdown (Deal’s made this a signature issue, while Handel has sported an endorsement from Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer), and two candidates, Oxendine and Handel, have proposed abolition of the state’s income tax, reflecting the wild popularity of national “Fair Tax” proposals among Georgia Republicans. And all the candidates are hard-core conservatives on cultural issues, though Handel got into a fight with Georgia Right-to-Life by opposing its proposal to restrict IV fertilization procedures.
On the Democratic side, the big question all along has been whether former Gov. Roy Barnes, who lost to Perdue in a big upset eight years ago, can win the primary without a runoff, as most recent polls have suggested he will. Barnes’ most prominent challenger, Attorney General Thurbert Baker, got off to a very late start in television advertising, and is now trying to attract enough support from his fellow African-Americans to deny Barnes the win (African-Americans typically cast close to half the votes in Democratic primaries in Georgia). Baker got a significant boost earlier this week with an endorsement from President Bill Clinton (Baker was a big Human Rights Campaign supporter in 2008), and has been promoting legalization of electronic bingo as a way to raise money for K-12 education. But Barnes has strong African-American support of his own; just today he was endorsed by Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed. Other significant candidates who could soak up some votes include former Secretary of State David Poythress, who’s been running an under-the-radar web-focused campaign, and former state House Democratic leader Dubose Porter, whose wife, Carol, is the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor.
On the congressional front, the state’s two white (and Blue Doggy) Democratic House members, Jim Marshall and John Barrow, are as usual considered vulnerable in November. Marshall, whose district went solidly for John McCain, has drawn a strong opponent in state representative Scott Austin, who should win the GOP nomination easily on Tuesday. Barrow, whose district is marginally Democratic even in presidential years, has for the second time drawn a primary challenge from former state representative Regina Thomas, whom he beat 3-1 in 2008. Thomas got some help from in-district anger at Barrow’s vote against health care reform, but his massive financial advantage should get him over the line. Meanwhile, Tea Party-backed candidate Ray McKinney is favored over former fire chief Carl Smith for the right to oppose Barrow, though that race could easily go to a runoff.
There are big and active Republican primaries in the districts of African-American congressmen David Scott and Hank Johnson (who also faces former Dekalb County executive Vernon Jones, something of a party renegade, in the primary but isn’t expected to lose), who has had recent health problems, but Republicans would have to get very lucky to become competitive in either place.
An open seat in the north metro Atlanta 7th district has spawned a mammoth eight-candidate Republican primary to succeed John Linder, with every single candidate endorsing Linder’s “Fair Tax” proposal. Former state representative Clay Cox and former Linder chief of staff Rob Woodall are the favorite to make a runoff, though Christian Right figure Jody Hice also has some support.
And up in the North Georgia 9th district, until recently represented by gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal, the winner of last month’s special election, Tea Party favorite and former state representative Tom Graves, must face pretty much the same field of opponents in the primary, but is expected to win.
In non-Georgia political news, the big development was probably the implosion of the Colorado gubernatorial campaign of former congressman (and GOP front-runner) Scott McInnis, accused of plagiarizing portions of a think-tank paper for which he was grossly overpaid a few years ago. Colorado Republicans are in a quandary; the only other candidate on the primary ballot, Don Maes, has struggled to raise money, and has, ironically, also been cited for campaign finance violations. To hand-pick another viable candidate, party leaders would have to wait for the primary to occur and then beg the winner to step aside.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
Photo credit: Airno’s Photostream
Tags: Alabama, Bill Clinton, Campaigns and elections, Carl Smith, Carol Porter, Clay Cox, Colorado, conservatives, David Poythress, David Scott, Democratic Party, Don Maes, Dubose Porter, Education, Eric Johnson, Facebook, Georgia, Hank Johnson, Human Rights Campaign, immigration reform, income tax, Jan Brewer, Jim Marshall, Jody Hice, John Barrow, John Linder, John McCain, John Oxendine, Karen Handel, Kasim Reed, Martha Roby, Nathan Deal, Newt Gingrich, Nikki Haley, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Ray McKinney, Regina Thomas, Republican Party, Rick Barber, Right-to-Life, Rob Woodall, Robert Bentley, Roy Barnes, Sarah Palin, Scott Austin, Scott McInnis, Senate, Sonny Perdue, Taxes, Tea Party, Terri Sewell, Thurbert Baker, Tom Graves, Vernon Jones
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Tuesday, July 13th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Today’s political feature is the runoff in Alabama, which I previewed in the last PPI political memo. As noted then, turnout patterns will probably be the determining factor in the GOP gubernatorial runoff, with the big question being whether Democrats will cross over in significant numbers. In the congressional runoffs, Democrat Terri Sewell is the favorite to win virtual election to the House in the 7th district seat vacated by unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Artur Davis, and Martha Roby should be able to turn back viral ad star Rick Barber in the Republican contest in the 2nd district. In most of the state, voters will be suffering through hot, humid weather with possible thunderstorms.
The primary state up next on the calendar is Georgia on July 20, and the highly competitive Republican gubernatorial primary there was roiled yesterday by Sarah Palin’s endorsement of former Secretary of State Karen Handel. It’s not clear yet whether Palin’s endorsement was one of those one-off interventions that have often characterized her activity this year (viz. her endorsement of Terry Brandstad in Iowa without so much as a phone conversation), or will be followed up by more active engagement. But it was well-timed: Handel has been moving up in the polls recently, holding a strong second place behind long-time front-runner John Oxendine in a SUSA poll released last week. Much as happened in Iowa, Georgia’s social conservatives have not reacted well to Palin’s endorsement, and former congressman Nathan Deal, who has been battling Handel for a runoff spot, put out a release expressing disappointment in Palin for supporting “the most liberal Republican in this race.”
Rhetoric aside, Handel’s profile in the race is actually pretty similar to that of another recent Palin endorsee, South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, at least before hamhanded allegations about Haley’s sex life and background took over news coverage and vaulted her to a landslide runoff victory. Like Haley, Handel is positioning herself as a “conservative reformer” taking on the state GOP’s good ol’ boys, and her single biggest problem, poor fundraising, may have been offset by the attention she’ll get from Palin’s endorsement. Right now an Oxendine-Handel runoff is the most likely outcome next Tuesday, though both Deal and a fourth candidate, Eric Johnson (who’s been running copious television ads) will fight her tooth and nail to the finish.
An even bigger name than Palin got involved in Georgia’s Democratic gubernatorial primary over the weekend, as former president Bill Clinton endorsed Attorney General Thurbert Baker. This wasn’t that big a surprise, since Baker was Hillary Clinton’s highest-profile Georgia supporter in 2008 (at least after John Lewis defected to the Obama camp). And there are no signs that the Big Dog will actually show up in Georgia to thump the tubs for Thurbert. But Baker definitely needs the help. Long assumed to have a virtual lock on a runoff spot opposite former Gov. Roy Barnes, Baker’s late-developing campaign has struggled to get off the ground, and recent polls show Barnes headed for a primary victory without a runoff (there are two other significant candidates on the ballot: former Secretary of State David Poythress and Democratic state legislative leader Dubose Porter). With some more attention, Baker might have a chance to keep Barnes below 50 percent: he’s an African-American in a state where a majority of the likely Democratic primary voters are African-American, and he’s lately found a distinctive issue by coming out for an electronic bingo initiative to help forestall education cuts.
In polling news, Rasmussen has a survey of general election matchups in the Colorado Senate race, showing another beneficiary of a Bill Clinton endorsement, former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, running a bit better than incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) against either of the two main Republican candidates, Ken Buck or Jane Norton. Colorado’s primary is four weeks from today.
Quinnipiac has released a new poll of the PA governor’s race, which, as in its May survey, shows Democrat Dan Onorato within single digits of Republican Tom Corbett, who leads 44-37.
The first poll in a good while in Indiana, by Rasmussen, shows Republican Dan Coats continuing to hold a big (51-30) lead over Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IA) for the Senate, though Ellsworth’s approval/disapproval ratio remains relatively strong at 42-29.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Photo Credit: BryanSwan’s Photostream
Tags: Andrew Romanoff, Arthur Davis, Bill Clinton, Brad Ellsworth, Dan Coats, Dan Onorato, David Poythress, Dubose Porter, Eric Johnson, Hillary Clinton, Jane Norton, John Lewis, John Oxendine, Karen Handel, Ken Buck, Martha Roby, Michael Bennet, Nathan Deal, Nikki Haley, Primaries, Rick Barber, Roy Barnes, Sarah Palin, Terri Sewell, Terry Branstad, Thurbert Baker, Tom Corbett
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Thursday, July 8th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
As regular readers might recall, back in May I did an analysis which predicted that the furor over immigration policy touched off in Arizona would have its greatest political impact not in the southwest or west coast, but in the Deep South, where a combination of new and highly visible Hispanic populations, low Hispanic voting levels, and red-hot Republican primaries would likely bring the issue to the forefront.
Nothing that’s happened since then has made me change my mind about that, though southern Republican unanimity on backing the Arizona law and replicating it everywhere has reduced the salience of immigration as a differentiator in some GOP primaries, most notably in South Carolina (where in any event the Nikki Haley saga eclipsed everything else).
But in Georgia, whose primary is on July 20, immigration is indeed a big issue in the gubernatorial contest, as reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jim Galloway:
For the next 13 days, all stops are off when it comes to debating the issue of illegal immigration.
The Obama administration’s court challenge to the Arizona law that gives its peace officers the authority to stop and impound undocumented residents is already serving as a stick to a wasp nest in Georgia’s race for governor.
Former congressman Nathan Deal’s first TV ad of the primary season on Wednesday focused on illegal immigration and a promise that Georgia would soon have an Arizona-style law.
On the answering machines of tens of thousands of GOP voters, former secretary of state Karen Handel left a message of endorsement from Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer. Expect to see Brewer at Handel’s side before the July 20 vote.
The climate doesn’t brook dissent. Democrats have been uniformly silent on the Arizona issue.
As it happens, Deal and Handel are battling for a runoff spot. Handel and long-time Republican front-runner John Oxendine are also proposing radical changes in the state tax code, abolishing income taxes entirely, but so far that momentous issue is not getting the kind of attention generated by the action of another state on immigration three time zones away.
Photo credit: Th.omas’ Photostream
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Tags: Arizona, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Georgia, GOP, Immigration, Jan Brewer, Jim Galloway, John Oxendine, Karen Handel, Nathan Deal, Nikki Haley, Republican Party, South Carolina
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Tuesday, July 6th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Having looked at the overall landscape of House and Senate elections recently, it’s probably time for another overview of gubernatorial contests, which will have a bearing not only on state policies but on the upcoming decennial round of redistricting.
There are 37 governorships up for grabs in November, including 19 held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans, which closely reflects the narrow 26-24 Democratic advantage in gubernatorial offices overall. How many of these races are competitive? Well, according to the (subscription-only) Cook Political Report’s Jennifer Duffy, 18 of them, or nearly half, are toss-ups, including eight now held by Democrats and ten by Republicans. Add in eight more that are rated as leaning in one direction or another, and that makes an amazing 26 competitive gubernatorial races, and a range of possible outcomes that’s all over the lot, and won’t necessarily reflect the congressional results. For one thing, even if you concede a Republican “tide” this year, the competitive races are largely in states carried by Barack Obama in 2008: that includes 12 of the 14 currently held by Democrats, and 8 of the 12 currently held by Republicans.
There are races all over the country where late primaries and/or competitive dynamics could change. Fully 21 states with gubernatorial races haven’t yet held primaries (counting Alabama, with a Republican runoff next week), including 18 now rated as competitive. And most states are experiencing deep fiscal problems that cut in all sorts of different directions; it’s not automatically clear in many places whether frightening budget shortfalls will benefit Republicans who are talking about cutting back government or Democrats who are resisting new tax cuts and fighting unpopular teacher layoffs and service reductions. And thanks to term limits, retirements, and primary outcomes, the impact of incumbency is also more limited than you might think: only two of the 12 vulnerable Republican seats (Arizona and Texas), and five of the 14 vulnerable Democratic seats (Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Maryland and Ohio) will have an incumbent on the ballot in November. Making things even more confusing, a significant number of former governors are running as non-incumbents this year, including Democrats Jerry Brown of California, Roy Barnes of Georgia and John Kitzhaber of Oregon, and Republicans Terry Branstad of Iowa and Bobby Ehrlich of Maryland.
I’ll be doing a separate memo focusing on redistricting later on, but it’s worth noting that gubernatorial contests could have a huge impact on that process. For example, there are five states certain to gain congressional seats where Republicans currently control the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Texas and Utah. The first four of those states have competitive governor’s races where a Democratic victory could mess up Republican “trifecta” control just in time for redistricting. New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all of which will lose congressional seats, also have very close partisan balances in the state legislature, and Ohio and Pennsylvania have competitive governor’s races. It’s kind of like three-dimensional chess, and well worth watching as we approach November.
Poll Watch
It’s been a quiet week on the polling front. New Rasmussen surveys of the gubernatorial races in Ohio and Pennsylvania show competitive races with GOPers out in front. In Ohio, which has been a very close contest, the poll gives Republican John Kasich a 47-40 lead over incumbent Ted Strickland, his biggest lead in any published poll since a Rasmussen survey in March. In Pennsylvania, however, Rasmussen shows Republican Tom Corbett’s lead over Democrat Dan Onorato dropping from 16 points (49-33) to ten points (49-39) since early June; the 10-point margin is also what PPP reported in its latest Pennsylvania poll.
Meanwhile, in Georgoa, whose primary is on July 20, Insider Advantage has a new poll of the Republican gubernatorial race showing long-time front-runner John Oxendine falling into a tie with Karen Handel at 18 percent, with Nathan Deal at 12 percent. This is a bit counter-intuitive since Oxendine and a fourth candidate, Eric Johnson, have recently been dominating the airwaves with ads, though at Iowa’s Southern Political Report site, John Tures attributes a purported Handel “surge” to her recent endorsement by Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, “the next Sarah Palin.” (I have a separate post at FiveThirtyEight examining Brewer’s new national influence.) It’s probably worth noting that shortly before South Carolina’s June 8 primary, Iowa showed Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer headed for a runoff with Nikki Haley; he instead finished a dismal fourth. We’ll see if the firm has got a better “Handel” on Republican sentiment in Georgia.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Tags: Andre Bauer, Barack Obama, Bobby Ehrlich, Campaigns and elections, Cook Political Report, Dan Onorato, Democratic Party, Eric Johnson, Jan Brewer, Jerry Brown, John Kasich, John Kitzhaber, John Oxendine, John Tures, Karen Handel, Nathan Deal, Nikki Haley, Rasmussen Survey, Republican Party, Roy Barnes, Southern Political Report, Ted Strickland, Terry Branstad, Tom Corbett
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Tuesday, June 29th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
A lot of the buzz about Republican prospects for retaking control of the U.S. House is based on fairly abstract factors, such as historical averages and national generic ballot polls. But in reality, of course, elections are individual contests, no matter how “nationalized” the cycle. And four months and change out from the November elections, it’s worth taking a somewhat more concrete look at the House landscape and where Democrats are vulnerable.
For purposes of this analysis, I’ll use the authoritative (if somewhat conservative, in the sense of caution about predicting incumbent losses) Cook Political Report ratings as of June 24 (no link, because it’s subscription-only). According to Cook’s highly astute David Wasserman, there are 66 seats currently held by Democrats that are involved in competitive races. Of those, nearly half (32) are actually rated as “lean D” at the moment. To win control of the House, Republicans need a net gain of 40 seats, and seven of their own seats are in competitive races, including three (DE-AL, HI-1 and LA-2) that most observers consider very likely to flip. So from the get-go, retaking the House will require a very high win rate for Republicans in competitive races, and/or continued improvement in their overall national standing—i.e., races now deemed “Likely D” slipping into the competitive range.
Looking at the 66 vulnerable Democratic seats, 15 are open. That’s a reasonably large number, but only half of the 30 open seats Democrats had in the last Republican “wave” election of 1994 (Republicans had 26 open seats in 2008, greatly helping the Democrats achieve a second straight big winning cycle). Twenty-five seats, however, are represented by freshmen, traditionally the most vulnerable incumbents. Most significantly, 51 of the 66 seats have a pro-Republican Partisan Voter Index (PVI), based on an average of party performance in the last two presidential elections. This indicates that most Republican gains in November will be a “correction” of recent overperformance by Democrats in House races rather than a true GOP “wave.” And it’s a reminder of the simple but often overlooked fact that because all members of the House face re-election every two years, a “landslide” is not defined by gains, but rather by overall performance. A GOP “landslide” in November would involve gains of closer to 100 seats than to the 40 necessary to eke out a small margin of control.
There are not any large regional disparities among the vulnerable Democratic seats: 18 are in the South, 18 in the Northeast, 18 in the Midwest and 12 in the West. Nor is it easy to typecast vulnerable Democrats by ideology: an analysis of the ideology of Democratic incumbents in competitive races published just yesterday by Swing State Project shows they span the intra-party ideological spectrum quite broadly.
Meanwhile, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has just released an update of his Senate race forecast, which now shows a slight improvement in Democratic prospects compared to his last forecast a couple of months ago. His model now predicts as a matter of probabilities that Democrats should get through November with 55 senators, with the Republicans holding 44 and, perhaps, one true independent (Charlie Crist). Silver gives Republicans a six percent chance of running the table and taking control of the Senate, a figure that improves to 12 percent if they can convince both Joe Lieberman and Charlie Crist (if he wins) to caucus with them.
Poll Watch
In polling news, two new surveys of the Massachusetts gubernatorial race by the University of New Hampshire and Rasmussen both show vulnerable incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick maintaining a seven-point lead over Republican Charlie Baker, with independent Tim Cahill losing steam. A rare poll of the Wyoming governor’s race (again by Rasmussen) shows the importance of term limits: four different Republicans have sizable leads over three different Democrats, while lame duck Democratic Gov. David Freudenthal enjoys an approval/disapproval ratio of 72/25 (a bit better than President Obama’s 30/70).
Yet another Rasmussen poll is the first post-primary survey of the South Carolina governor’s race, and given the positive hype surrounding Nikki Haley after her runoff win, Democrat Vincent Sheheen should be pleased to be trailing only 52-40 (his approval/disapproval ratio is 50/35, while Haley’s is predictably and perhaps temporarily in the stratosphere at 70/26). And while it’s hardly that significant at this early stage, it’s interesting that a PPP survey of Texas Republicans shows Newt Gingrich leading the 2012 presidential field, with or without Rick Perry listed as an option. Presumed front-runner Mitt Romney is in the middle of the pack.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Photo credit: Dbking’s Photosream
Tags: Barack Obama, Campaigns and elections, Charlie Baker, Charlie Crist, Cook Political Report, David Freudenthal, David Wasserman, Democratic Party, Deval PAtrick, FiveThirtyEight, Joe Lieberman, Mitt Romney, Nate Silver, Newt Gingrich, Nikki Haley, Politics and politicians, Republican Party, Rick Perry, Swing State Project, Tim Cahill, University of New Hampshire, Vincent Sheheen
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Friday, June 25th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
We’re entering a slow period in state primaries, with the only contests on tap for the next four weeks being a runoff in Alabama on July 13 and Georgia’s primary on July 20. The former event features a Republican gubernatorial runoff between long-time front-runner Bradley Byrne and surprise second-place finisher Robert Bentley, who had to get past an unsuccessful recount petition by Tim James. In Georgia, there are competitive gubernatorial primaries in both parties, though former Gov. Roy Barnes seems to have the Democratic race well in hand at this point; Republicans have a fractious multi-candidate field led for many months by state insurance commissioner John Oxendine (whose ethics record is so controversial that RedState blogger Erick Erickson’s said he’d vote for Barnes if Oxendine wins the nomination), with a runoff almost certain. I’ll have more about both states when we get closer to the balloting.
As expected, the landslide victories on Tuesday of Asian-American Nikki Haley and African-American Tim Scott in South Carolina has spurred a lot of commentary about the GOP’s new diversity. (It hasn’t got much attention, BTW, but Haley’s Democratic opponent, Vincent Sheheen, is of Arab descent, reflecting the long-time presence of Lebanese in the Deep South). But outside South Carolina, an equally remarkable aspect of those victories has gone largely unremarked: both candidates were protégés of disgraced Republican governor Mark Sanford, who has now achieved the political equivalent of eternal life in the success of his young associates. It will also be interesting to see how well Scott (assuming he wins his heavily Republican district in November), a hard-core conservative ideologue, fits in with the Congressional Black Caucus.
Utah Republicans are recovering from a nomination cycle that involved the rejection of a long-time incumbent Senator, Bob Bennett, and then a savage primary between two very conservative candidates, with the winner, Mike Lee, being very much the vehicle for national groups determined to move the GOP to the right. To understand that these Men of Principle haven’t gotten rid of the hypocrisy of traditional politics, check out the web site of the losing candidate, Tim Bridgewater. At the top is a pre-primary jeremiad that includes this line: “My opponent, D.C.-based attorney Mike Lee, is spending $200,000 on TV and radio, spreading lies and distortions about my business background.” A bit later he accuses Lee of “a desperate lie.” But over to the left on the page is a new bulletin that, predictably, endorses that desperate liar for the general election.
Moving along, you can expect some serious political fallout around the country from the U.S. Senate’s apparent defeat of what some have called a second stimulus bill. Most of the attention in national media has been paid to the impact on people whose unemployment insurance eligibility is running out. But the bill also included $16 billion in assistance to state and local government to help forestall layoffs of teachers and other public employees. Whatever you think of that as economic policy, it’s clear the withdrawn funds will wreak havoc in those states where governors and legislators had counted on the help, including those where Republicans are nervous about the public reaction to teacher layoffs and higher public university tuition. It’s another example of how tough-sounding rhetoric on fiscal austerity and small government is more popular than the practical steps needed to reduce spending, particularly in a recession, since there’s no state budget category called “waste, fraud and abuse” that can painlessly absorb cuts.
Poll Watch
In polling news, Rasmussen has a bunch of new take-it-with-a-grain-of-salt polls. In the Nevada Senate race, a post-primary survey has Republican Sharron Angle up over Harry Reid 48-41, though her favorable/unfavorable ratio is no better than the incumbent’s. In the first general-election poll of the Vermont governor’s race in a long while, Rasmussen shows Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie leading all the Democratic candidates, though Secretary of State Deb Markowitz holds him to a 47-40 lead. And in Washington, the new poll shows Sen. Patti Murray (D) and Republican Dino Rossi in a 47-47 dead heat.
A new Magellan poll in Arizona has John McCain with a comfortable 52-29 lead over conservative challenger, J.D. Hayworth, who’s having a tough week.
Tags: Alabama, Bob Bennett, Bradley Byrne, Brian Dubie, Campaigns and elections, Deb Markowitz, Dino Rossi, Erick Erickson, Georgia, Harry Reid, John McCain, John Oxendine, Mark Sanford, Mike Lee, Nevada, Nikki Haley, Patti Murray, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Robert Bentley, Roy Barnes, Sharron Angle, Tim Bridgewater, Tim James, Tim Scott, Utah, Vermont, Vincent Sheheen
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Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
As I expected, the cluster of organizations and interests that represent the most conservative wing of the increasingly very conservative Republican Party had some real fun last night in South Carolina’s runoff elections.
Nikki Haley, the Mark Sanford protege who had staked out the “most conservative” territory in her gubernatorial race long before anything was said about her sex life or ethnicity, won the runoff over congressman Gresham Barrett by a two-to-one margin, essentially winning everywhere other than a few counties in Barrett’s upstate base. Similarly, another Sanford protege with a can’t-outconservative-me rep, state legislator Tim Scott, beat Charleston County Councilmember Paul Thurmond by better than two-to-one for an open congressional seat.
I’ve written enough about Haley over the past few weeks; suffice it to say that she won this race the moment her old staffer, blogger Will Folks, accused her of marital infidelity in a way that failed to convince much of anybody but made the entire campaign All About Nikki. And it was especially appropriate that Sarah Palin endorsed Haley just before the Folks furor began; the Haley saga was a pitch-perfect projection of Palin’s own persecution complex–you know, the Good Old Boys and the liberal lamestream media trying to smear a brave Mama Grizzly for telling the simple right-wing truth.
Scott’s victory was equally interesting, and perhaps an even bigger deal for the Republican Right, which will have an African-American spokesman in Congress for the first time since J.C. Watts retired. The symbolism of an African-American defeating the son of Strom Thurmond within shouting distance of Fort Sumter is obviously very striking. But it’s not as though Scott’s win repudiated any aspect of Thurmond’s legacy other than the blatant racism he abandoned by the 1970s; Scott was himself co-chairman of ol’ Strom’s last Senate campaign.
The third great event for South Carolina conservatives was the absolutely humiliating 71-29 defeat of U.S. Rep. Bob Inglis by Tea Party vehicle Trey Gowdy. This result will serve as an enduring reminder to GOP elected officials that The Movement will find someone to run against them if they stray from orthodoxy. Inglis’ fatal act of sacrilege was probably telling fist-shaking protestors at a town hall meeting to stop paying attention to Glenn Beck.
South Carolina has always been a special place for the more radical variety of conservatives. They certainly seemed to have the whole state wired last night.
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Photo credit: maryaustinphoto
Tags: Bob Inglis, Campaigns and elections, conservatives, Gresham Barrett, Nikki Haley, Politics and politicians, Republican Party, Sarah Palin, South Carolina, Tea Party, Tim Scott, Trey Gowdy, Will Folks
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Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
It’s primary day in Utah, with statewide primary runoffs on tap in North and South Carolina.
Taking these states in reverse order: South Carolina is almost certain to produce the bulk of national political headlines tonight, with the made-for-TV saga of Republican gubernatorial candidate (and certain boffo winner tonight) Nikki Haley front-and-center. In case you have somehow missed it, Haley is the very, very conservative state legislator who began the campaign as the underfunded protégé of disgraced “conservative reformer” Mark Sanford, and then vaulted into contention just as one and then two South Carolina Republican political operatives went public with allegations that they’d had illicit sex with the candidate.
It’s sometimes difficult to separate cause and effect in political developments, but it’s reasonably clear that the poorly documented sexual allegations against Haley, compounded more recently by crude attacks on her ethnicity (she’s second-generation Indian-American) and religion (she’s an adult convert to evangelical Protestantism from her family’s Sikh tradition), have immeasurably helped her campaign while reducing her once-powerful gubernatorial rivals to bystanders if not presumed accomplices in smears against her. Haley nearly won the nomination without a runoff, and was also endorsed by third-place finisher Attorney General Henry McMaster. Her opponent, Rep. Gresham Barrett, won the dubious prize of an endorsement from last-place primary finisher Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, and also managed to outspend Haley in the brief runoff campaign. But that matters little in a race driven by scandal-fed free media, and the only question is how high her margin will rise, and how well she wears on voters in a long general election campaign against Democrat Vincent Sheheen.
Those who want to boost the GOP as a party that presents diverse candidates proclaiming a single rigid conservative message will be hoping against hope that another South Carolina runoff, in the Low Country 1st congressional district, produces a win for state representative Tim Scott. Scott, who like Haley claims the “true conservative” mantle (and has both a Sarah Palin endorsement and Club for Growth backing), is African-American, and in a coincidence that could have been made in Hollywood, his runoff opponent is none other than Strom Thurmond’s son, Paul (a Charleston County council member).
Meanwhile, in upstate South Carolina, Republican Rep. Bob Inglis is expected to lose his House seat to Tea Party favorite Trey Gowdy; Inglis only won 28 percent of the vote in the primary to Gowdy’s 39 percent. Inglis got into trouble for voting for TARP and daring to criticize Glenn Beck.
In North Carolina, it’s anybody’s guess as to whether Elaine Marshall or Cal Cunningham will win the Democratic nomination to face Sen. Richard Burr. Marshall led the primary 37-26, narrowly missing the 40 percent threshold for winning the nomination outright. She also got an endorsement from third-place primary finisher Ken Lewis, which added to her strength among African-American leaders. But Cunningham, who was recruited into the race by the DCCC, has been the aggressor in the runoff, touting his electability. The only public poll of the runoff, taken by PPP last month, showed the two dead even with a large undecided vote. I’d guess Marshall is still the favorite to win a very low-turnout runoff.
Aficionados of wild campaigns and wilder candidates may be disappointed tonight by the expected defeat of North Carolina Republican congressional candidate Tim D’Annunzio, who according to PPP is trailing Harold Johnson for the right to take on Democratic incumbent Larry Kissell.
With so much national attention on the Carolinas, the ideological drama going on in both parties in Utah may not receive due notice. As you may recall, Utah Republicans dumped Sen. Bob Bennett at a state convention last month as he trailed two challengers for the right to go to today’s primary. The survivors, entrepreneur Tim Bridgewater and former SCOTUS clerk Mike Lee, are both hard-core conservatives by most national standards. But Lee’s national supporters (including Jim DeMint and RedState’s Erick Erickson) are going after Bridgewater hammer-and-tong as little other than the ideological heir to Bennett (who, along with another defeated candidate, Eagle Forum activist Cherilyn Eagar, has endorsed Bridgewater). The one independent poll shows Bridgewater up by nine points, but Lee has released his own poll showing him up nine points.
Meanwhile, Utah’s sole Democratic congressman, Tim Matheson, is facing a serious primary challenge from the left, from retired teacher Claudia Wright. Wright has made Matheson’s opposition to health reform a major theme, and there’s also been talk of Republicans crossing over into the open Democratic primary to “take out” the incumbent (though as always, tactical voting is actually a pretty rare phenomenon). In a late poll, Matheson led Wright 52-33, but whatever vote Wright receives will be closely watched for national implications, given progressive grumbling about Blue Dogs like Matheson.
Photo credit: maryaustinphoto
Tags: Andre Bauer, Bob Bennett, Bob Inglis, Cal Cunningham, Campaigns and elections, Cherilyn Eagar, Claudia Wright, Conservatism, conservatives, Democratic Party, Elaine Marshall, Erick Erickson, Glenn Beck, Gresham Barrett, Henry McMaster, Jim DeMint, Ken Lewis, Larry Kissell, Mark Stanford, Mike Lee, Nikki Haley, Paul Thurmond, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Republican Party, Richard Burr, Sarah Palin, South Carolina, Strom Thurmond, Tim Bridgewater, Tim D'Annuzio, Tim Matheson, Tim Scott, Trey Gowdy, Utah, Vincent Sheheen
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Saturday, June 19th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
If you want a pretty good indication of the power of ideology in today’s Republican Party, check out the latest endorsement of front-runner Nikki Haley for the Republican gubernatorial nomination just before next Tuesday’s runoff:
So let’s get this straight … we know for a fact that S.C. Rep. Nikki Haley is lying through her teeth every time she denies our founding editor’s claim that she had an “inappropriate physical relationship” with him in the Spring of 2007. On top of that, we also know for a fact that her political career could very well go down in flames if (and more likely “when”) this ticking time bomb goes off …
And yet we’re endorsing her for the 2010 S.C. Republican gubernatorial nomination anyway?
Correct….
[T]he bottom line for S.C. taxpayers is that Haley would vote the right way on the S.C. Budget and Control Board, use her veto pen to reduce the size and scope of government and sign a universal parental choice bill which would (at long last) provide parents with real options and our flawed system with real, market-based accountability.
Yes, Haley has been endorsed by the web page of South Carolina blogger Will Folks, whose allegation of an affair with Haley turned the gubernatorial race upside down. Unless you buy the theory that Folks and Haley actually cooked up the whole J’accuse to preempt rumors about her sex life and make her a martyr, Folks’ endorsement looks like a powerful validator of the notion that being Right is more important than being right to today’s conservative activists.
There haven’t been any public polls on this race released since the June 8 primary, but a pre-primary poll by PPP that asked about a hypothetical Haley-Gresham Barrett runoff showed her up 51-35. This was before third-place finisher Henry McMaster endorsed Haley.
In North Carolina, where Democrats are having a Senate runoff on Tuesday, the only post-primary poll (again, by PPP) showed first-place primary finisher Elaine Marshall and DSCC favorite Cal Cunningham even at 36 percent with a large undecided vote. But that was more than a month ago, and given the likelihood of very low turnout, anything could happen. Marshall was endorsed by third-place finisher Ken Lewis, buttressing her advantage among African-Americans, and also by MoveOn.
And in Utah, whose primary is also on Tuesday, a poll taken for Mike Lee’s campaign showed him leading Tim Bridgewater in the Republican Senate race 39-30. Bridgewater, a hard-core conservative but in better standing than Lee with the GOP establishment, has been endorsed by defeated incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett and also by fourth-place finisher Cherilyn Eager.
Poll Watch
In polling news, it’s a sign of the trouble that the long-time front-runner in the Florida Republican gubernatorial race, Bill McCollum, is experiencing with free-spending late-entering candidate Rick Scott that McCollum has released a poll showing them running dead even.
A new Sooner Poll of the Oklahoma Democratic gubernatorial race (the primary is on July 27) shows Attorney General Drew Edmondson holding just a one-point lead over Lt. Gov. Jari Askins.
Rasmussen has three new general-election gubernatorial polls out. In Texas, they show Rick Perry with a 48-40 lead over Bill White, although White has a somewhat better approval-disapproval ratio than the incumbent. In Tennessee, they show all three major Republican gubernatorial candidates with double-digit leads over Democrat Mike McWherter. And in Arkansas, Democratic incumbent Mike Beebe enjoys a 57-33 lead over Republican nominee Jim Keet, a slightly higher margin than he had in May.
Tags: Arkansas, Bill McCollum, Bill White, Bob Bennett, Cal Cunningham, Campaigns and elections, Cherilyn Eager, Conservatism, Democratic Party, Drew Edmondson, Elaine Marshall, Florida, Gresham Barrett, Henry McMaster, Jari Askins, Jim Keet, Ken Lewis, Mike Beebe, Mike Lee, Mike McWherter, Nikki Haley, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Rasmussen, Republican Party, Rick Perry, Rick Scott, South Carolina, Texas, Tim Bridgewater, Utah, Will Folks
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Tuesday, June 15th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
After the cornucopia of primaries on June 8, the electoral schedule is slowing down for a bit. The next votes are on June 22, with three statewide runoffs (South Carolina, North Carolina and South Dakota) and the Utah primary.
But perhaps the most interesting set of developments over the last few days involves Alabama’s Republican gubernatorial contest, where the extremely narrow margin between second-place finisher Robert Bentley and third-place finisher Tim James has created a legal and political mess.
Alabama is one of those states with a relatively decentralized election system, particularly for primaries. There’s no automatic recount system, and technically, no such thing as a statewide recount. So a candidate like James, who is looking for 167 votes to overtake Bentley, must pursue a recount county-by-county, through county party committees utilizing volunteers, all at his own expense.
As James was gearing up for that effort last week, along came Attorney General Troy King — a Republican who got trounced in his effort to get renominated on June 1 — with an opinion holding that no challenge to the primary results could be launched until a nomination had actually been made — i.e., after the runoff. This Catch-22 situation didn’t persuade James to abandon his recount effort, but it appears that if the recount does put him into the lead, the best party leaders could do for him is to schedule a runoff after the runoff — essentially a round-robin — where he’d face the winner of the contest between Bentley and first-place finisher Bradley Byrne. As Chuck Dean of the Birmingham News says:
That scenario is keeping Republican Party state Chairman Mike Hubbard from getting a good night’s sleep.
“It’s a potential mess,” said Hubbard. “All we can do at this point is follow what the attorney general says is the law and the recommendations of the secretary of state and then see what we see. If the recount shows Bentley still in the lead, then I guess this is all over. If the recount shows James pulling ahead, then all I can say is, hold on.”
The only person enjoying this mess is probably Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ronnie Sparks.
In other runoff news, third-place finisher Henry McMaster has endorsed all-but-certain South Carolina Republican gubernatorial nominee Nikki Haley in her runoff against Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC).
Poll Watch
In polling news, Magellan Strategies has a new Louisiana survey out that illustrates the dominance of the oil and gas industries in that state’s economy, with respondents favoring an expansion of offshore drilling by a 72-15 margin.
PPP has released the first major survey of the Illinois Senate race since Rep. Mark Kirk’s (R-IL) issues with his military record emerged. It shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias edging back ahead of Kirk by a 31-30 margin with a big undecided vote.
And a new Battleground poll for NPR, jointly conducted by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, focuses on 70 competitive House districts, sixty of which are currently held by Democrats. It shows Republicans with an overall 49-41 lead in these districts, including a 47-42 lead in Democratic districts. As Stan Greenberg put it: “In a year where voters want change and in which Democrats are seen to be in power, this is a tough poll — about as tough as you [can] get.”
Photo Credit: StuSeeger
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
Tags: Alabama, Alexi Giannoulias, Bradley Byrne, Campaigns and elections, Chuck Dean, Gresham Barrett, Henry McMaster, Mark Kirk, Mike Hubbard, Nikki Haley, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Republican Party, Robert Bentley, ronnie sparks, Stan Greenberg, Tim James, Troy King
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Friday, June 11th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
In my last political memo on June 8, I made some predictions for that day’s primaries. Let’s see how I did.
Arkansas Senate Runoff: Too Close to Call. I questioned the CW favoring Halter over Lincoln, and in the end, Lincoln’s GOTV effort (with a little help from Big Dog Bill Clinton) was just enough.
South Carolina Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Nikki Haley Wins. Actually, I went right over the brink and predicted that Haley would win without a runoff, and she came about as close as possible — with 49 percent of the vote — as she could. In fact, distant second-place finisher Rep. Gresham Barrett immediately came under pressure to drop out and give Haley the nomination without further ado, but it looks like he’ll roll the dice for the short two-week runoff contest, which everyone thinks Haley will easily win (unless those accusing her of sexual misbehavior finally come up with some real evidence).
South Carolina Democratic Gubernatorial Primary: Sheheen/Rex Runoff. I was right in saying that third-place finisher Rep. Robert Ford would do well enough to force a runoff, but didn’t account for one-time front-runner Jim Rex running so poorly that state Rep. Vincent Sheheen was able to romp to victory anyway.
Iowa Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Terry Branstad wins. Check, though his nine-point margin of victory over outgunned conservative Bob Vander Plaats was a lot smaller than the polls suggested, and indicates the residual strength of social conservatives in the Iowa GOP — which will be much more powerful in the context of a presidential caucus.
Nevada Republican Senate Primary: Sharron Angle wins. Check. Angle won very easily, even carrying Clark County (Las Vegas). The real surprise here is that Danny Tarkanian, whom some experts thought might pull an upset in this race, finished a poor third. So Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) got the match-up he wanted.
Nevada Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Attorney General Brian Sandoval wins. Check; the Gibbons Era is over, and Rory Reid begins the general election as an underdog.
California Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Meg Whitman wins. Yep, and she only spent about $80 per vote.
California Republican Senate Primary: Carly Fiorina wins. She even took Marin County, which should have been Tom Campbell Country if any place was.
South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary: Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard wins. He won more votes than all his opponents combined.
I refused to make any prediction in Maine, where “undecided” was the dominant presence in pre-election polls for both parties’ gubernatorial primaries. In the end, state senate president Libby Mitchell won the Democratic nod, and Tea Party favorite Paul LePage won the Republican nomination. But independent Eliot Cutler will be competitive in the general election.
In other significant developments, Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC) of South Carolina got knocked into a runoff by tea party avatar Trey Gowdy. California voters approved Prop 14, abolishing party primaries in favor of a “jungle primary” system (like Washington State’s) where the top two finishers among candidates from all or no parties advance to the general election.
The next election day is June 22, when Utah holds its primary, while North and South Carolina, Mississippi and South Dakota hold runoffs.
In Alabama, the third-place finisher in the June 1 Republican gubernatorial primary, Tim James, is pursuing a recount to see if he can overcome Robert Bentley’s 167-vote lead for a second runoff spot against Bradley Byrne. The runoff is on July 13.
In the most interesting poll to be released in the last few days, Quinnipiac finds two self-funding candidates making a big splash in Florida. Former health care exec Rick Scott has ridden a batch of ads (mostly expressing his fondness for Arizona’s new immigration law) to a stunning lead over Attorney General Bill McCollum in the Republican gubernatorial primary; McCollum had been presumed to be the certain nominee until now. And in the Democratic Senate primary, billionaire Jeff Greene has pulled nearly even with congressman Kendrick Meek.
In more general polling news, DailyKos has terminated its relationship with the Research 2000 polling firm, which had been doing a lot of state ads for DKos. And in a very related development, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver released an updated version of his comprehensive rating of pollsters for accuracy.
Photo credit: Tom Prete’s Photostream
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
Tags: Alabama, Arkansas, Bill Clinton, Bill Halter, Bill McCollum, Blanche Lincoln, Bob Inglis, Bob Vander Plaats, Bradley Byrne, Brian Sandoval, California, Campaigns and elections, Carly Fiorina, Danny Tarkanian, Democratic Party, Dennis Daugaard, Eliot Cutler, Gresham Barrett, Harry Reid, Iowa, Jeff Greene, Jim Rex, Kendrick Meek, Libby Mitchell, Meg Whitman, Nevada, Nikki Haley, Paul LePage, Politics and politicians, Republican Party, Rick Scott, Robert Bentley, Robert Ford, Rory Reid, Sharron Angle, South Carolina, Tea Party, Terry Branstad, Tim James, Trey Gowdy, Utah, Vincent Sheheen
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