Posts Tagged ‘ Primaries ’

Will Conservative Activists Win in Delaware and New Hampshire Primaries?

Tuesday, September 14th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Today marks the last big primary day of the midterm cycle.  Following these eight contests, only Hawaii, this Saturday, and a runoff in Louisiana on October 2, remain on the calendar.

Most of the national attention during the week prior to these primaries has been focused on the two states with competitive Republican Senate primaries, Delaware and New Hampshire.  In both states, late surges by conservative candidates threaten not only to upset establishment-backed front-runners, but also to make these seats far more difficult for Republicans to win in November.

Delaware

The Delaware race has been particularly characterized by late dramatics.  From the day he announced for this contest, congressman Mike Castle has been the prohibitive front-runner, not only for the nomination but for the general election as well.  Castle has won a remarkable twelve statewide elections in Delaware and has never lost.  He has the solid support of both the state and national GOP.  His challenger, religious conservative activist Christine O’Donnell, is a relative newcomer to the state (though she did win the sacrificial-lamb Senate nomination against Joe Biden two years ago) and is mainly known for extremist positions on sexual ethics.  She also has a history of serious personal financial problems, and in fact, has no visible means of support at present.  On top of everything else, she’s run a campaign against Castle heavily laden with homophobic innuendoes about her opponent’s masculinity.

Yet according to the one recent poll, released by PPP late Sunday night, O’Donnell is actually leading Castle 47-44.  She’s received late endorsements from the NRA, Sarah Palin, and Jim DeMint, but only one endorsement, from the Tea Party Express, arrived early enough to give her any kind of material assistance.  She’s benefitting, it appears, from long-simmering conservative resentment of Castle’s voting record: he’s pro-choice; he’s regularly bucked the gun lobby; he voted for TARP; and he was one of a handful of Republican House members who voted for climate change legislation in 2009.  There may be a geographical factor as well; O’Donnell seems to be doing especially well in the southern portions of the state said to be fed up with the domination of Delaware politics by populous New Castle County (Wilmington).

O’Donnell’s late endorsements and particularly the PPP poll seem to have lit a fire underneath the Castle campaign, and his supporters have been pounding O’Donnell very aggressively as voters prepared to make their choice.  One piece of raw material they’ve used is a Weekly Standard article about O’Donnell’s gender discrimination lawsuit against a Delaware-based conservative campus organization.  “O’Donnell’s finances, honesty, and stability have been called into question in light of her false and strange claims,” the article suggests.

If she survives, O’Donnell will be the instant underdog against Democrat Chris Coons, the New Castle County Executive, who’s been running a stronger race than expected against Castle.  But even if Castle pulls it out, the bad feelings from the primary could help Coons make the race competitive.

New Hampshire

Meanwhile, a more conventional if equally close Senate primary is unfolding in New Hampshire, where another originally prohibitive front-runner, Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, is now hanging onto a small lead over “true conservative” activist Ovide Lamontagne, who was the GOP gubernatorial nominee back in 1996.  Ayotte does not have Castle’s kind of voting record to defend, and she’s been endorsed by Sarah Palin and some anti-abortion groups.  But she’s been caught in sort of a pincers movement. During the summer months, a self-funding businessman, Bill Binnie, spent millions attacking Ayotte’s competence and integrity, and lured her into a back-and-forth that boosted both candidates’ negatives.  Just as Binnie (who took the unconventional route of boasting about his pro-choice convictions) began to fade, Lamontagne took flight, particularly at the end of August when he secured the aggressive backing of that hardy conservative monolith, the New Hampshire Union-Leader.  The paper has focused particularly on undermining Ayotte’s conservative support, pounding her daily for agreeing to a financial settlement with Planned Parenthood over a lawsuit against the state’s parental notification law.

PPP’s last poll showed Lamontagne within seven points of Ayotte over the weekend, while another late poll, by Magellan Strategies, pegged her lead at only four points.  Jim DeMint offered Lamontagne a last-minute endorsement, and Sarah Palin’s done some robocalls for Ayotte, but the battle is pretty much between Ayotte and the Union-Leader.  As in Delaware, national party figures are unhappy with the prospects of an upset; Lamotagne is the one Republican candidate who’s trailed Democratic congressman Paul Hodes in general election polls.

Wisconsin

The other statewide contest of note is in Wisconsin, where Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker is in a heated battle with former congressman (and heavy self-funder) Mark Neumann for the Republican gubernatorial nomination to face Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D).  This race has mainly revolved around each candidate’s efforts to challenge the conservative credentials of the other, with Walker running last-minute ads attacking Neumann for voting for a large transportation bill in Congress back in 1998.  Walker’s been the front-runner all along, but Neumann’s money has made it competitive.

Washington, DC

DC Democratic voters will determine the fate of Washington Mayor Adrian Fenty, who’s gotten high marks from wonks for his efforts to deal with DC’s dreadful public schools, but has actually been trailing DC Council Chairman Vincent Gray in recent polls.  This contest has exposed long-standing racial rifts; while both candidates are African-American, Fenty’s strongest base of support is among the white gentrifiers whom some African-American voters blame for pricing black folks out of traditional neighborhoods; Gray has also unsurprisingly won backing from those who oppose Fenty’s controversial school reforms.  The outcome will probably depend on turnout patterns in DC’s very diverse electorate.

Photo credit: Kevin Dooley

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Why Tuesday’s primaries are good news for Dems

Friday, August 13th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

When you add it all up, Tuesday produced four gubernatorial general election contests—three in states currently controlled by Republicans—in which the Democratic candidate is, at the moment anyway, the front-runner. Quite a tonic for distressed donkeys everywhere.

In Colorado, The Republican gubernatorial primary was a messy affair in which the “winner” – little-known, underfinanced, and rather kooky Tea Party activist Dan Maes – will now come under sustained pressure to fold his campaign and allow the state party to pick a more suitable candidate (possibly Jane Norton), in hopes of also squeezing Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo out of the race.  If GOPers don’t pull off this gymnastic series of maneuvers, Democratic nominee John Hickenlooper will be a heavy favorite in November.

Meanwhile, in the Democratic senatorial primary, appointed Senator Michael Bennet survived what was beginning to look like a political death spiral. He dispatched former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff by an eight-point margin, with especially robust performance in the Denver suburbs in what will be perceived as a victory for the White House.  He will now face district attorney and Tea Party favorite Ken Buck (R), who has shown a distinct proclivity for self-inflicted verbal wounds.  Buck defeated former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton in the Republican primary mainly by piling up large margins in his home turf near Ft. Collins.

In Connecticut, an odd role reversal occurred in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Former netroots idol Ned Lamont ran a campaign focused on imposing fiscal discipline and improving the business climate and lost rather dramatically to former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, who has a “centrist” background but ran as something of a populist.  Malloy will face former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, a conventional conservative who held off Lt. Gov. Michele Fedele.

These two contests were also something of a test for Connecticut’s strong system of public financing of campaigns: Malloy and Fedele received public financing, while Lamont and Foley self-funded.  Unfortunately for Malloy, the portion of the Connecticut law that provided for “triggering” larger grants for candidates facing self-funders has been invalidated for the general election.  But according to the polls, Malloy will be the favorite in November.

In Minnesota, former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton continued his political comeback by narrowly winning the gubernatorial nomination against party-endorsed State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher.  Dayton is the early favorite over Republican nominee Tom Emmer, who is probably too conservative for the state, and will also likely lose votes to Independence Party nominee Tom Horner.

And in Georgia, the vicious GOP gubernatorial runoff, in a mild upset, went to former congressman Nathan Deal, who is both a conservative ideologue and the candidate of the state’s GOP establishment. Deal defeated self-styled “conservative reformer” Karen Handel, by just an eyelash.

This contest featured a lot of national intervention, with Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee campaigning for Deal and Sarah Palin campaigning for Handel (Mitt Romney also did robocalls for the loser).  Handel’s quick concession and endorsement of Deal provided some hope among Republicans that the party would unite after the bitter primary and runoff, in the face of a challenge from former Gov. Roy Barnes, who’s been running more or less even with the various Republican candidates in the polls.

Next Tuesday, Washington State (with its unusual system in which the top two primary candidates regardless of party proceed to the general election) and Wyoming are holding primaries. The much-higher-profile Florida and Arizona primaries follow on August 24.

In the Florida, the initial appeal of the two hugely self-funded candidates, Democrat billionaire Bob Greene and Republican billionaire Rick Scott, seems to be fading as the primary approaches.

In the Democratic Senatorial primary, a Feldman poll taken for congressman Kendrick Meek shows him edging ahead of Greene after a week or so of very bad publicity about the billionaire’s personal life.

Meanwhile, in the Republican gubernatorial primary, both Mason-Dixon and the Tarrance Group have new polls showing previously left-for-dead Attorney General Bob McCollum moving ahead of Rick Scott, a former hospital chain executive. Mason-Dixon also shows that the savage competition between the Republicans has lifted Democrat Alex Sink into the lead in the general election.

Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.

Photo Credit: Mykl Roventine


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The United Nations Plot to Take Over Denver (and other nasty dramas from today’s big primaries)

Tuesday, August 10th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

This is the busiest primary day since the June 8 blockbuster, with three states (CO, CT and MN) holding primaries and a fourth (GA) holding a runoff.  So there’s a lot of ground to cover.

Colorado

A factor in all the Colorado races is that most counties in the state went to an all-mail-ballot system this year, which could boost overall turnout but will definitely affect the timing of votes (though Colorado’s had heavy early voting for a while now).

Colorado’s Senate races have become very competitive in both parties coming down the stretch.  Appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) got hit with a controversial (in its timing) New York Times piece about his involvement in an unsuccessful investment by the Denver public schools, which immediately generated an attack ad by his opponent, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), who has been pounding Bennet for weeks as someone too close to Wall Street.  Late polls show a very close race, with Survey USA indicating Romanoff has moved ahead while PPP shows Bennet hanging onto a small lead.

On the Republican side, polls also differ as to whether district attorney Ken Buck has maintained his lead over former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, despite his recent gaff-a-thon.  Norton surprised a lot of observers by inviting John McCain into the state to campaign with her at the very end; we’ll see if she knew what she was doing.  While both candidates are quite conservative, Buck’s the preferred candidate of the Tea Party folk and the national conservative chattering classes, so if he wins they will claim another Establishment scalp.

The ongoing meltdown known as the Colorado Republican gubernatorial contest is also ending with no clear leader; one poll has Tea Party activist Dan Maes narrowly leading; the other shows former congressman Scott McInnis narrowly regaining the lead.  As you may have heard, McInnis’ campaign imploded in July when the Denver Post revealed that a wonky series of columns he “wrote” as part of a lucrative think tank contract were heavily plagiarized.  But Maes has been hounded by campaign finance violations and poor fundraising, and also earned heavy derision by claiming a popular bike-sharing program in which Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Hickenlooper was involved is in fact part of a United Nations plot to take over Denver.  You really can’t make this stuff up.

The “winner” of this primary will immediately be under heavy pressure to drop out and allow the state party to choose a more electable candidate, and also to beg former congressman Tom Tancredo to close down his campaign on the far-right, theocratic Constitution Party ticket, which polls indicate would split the GOP vote in half and guarantee a Hickenlooper victory.

Georgia

Rivaling Colorado in inter-Republican drama has been the gubernatorial runoff in Georgia, which polls show as coming down to a real nail-biter between primary first-place finisher Karen Handel and former congressman Nathan Deal.  Continuing her effort to cast herself as a “conservative reformer” taking on the corrupt “good ol’ boys” of the Republican establishment, Handel has continued to attack Deal’s ethics record and Washington associations. Deal, probably hoping for a very low turnout dominated by ideologues, has pounded Handel for alleged “liberal” heresy on abortion and gay rights.  Both campaigns are in danger of being overshadowed by their supporters, with Sarah Palin making a very conspicuous last-day appearance alongside Handel in Atlanta (Mitt Romney is also doing robocalls for Handel), while Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee have campaigned for Deal.  Deal also has a massive endorsement list of Republican state legislators owing to Handel’s many attacks on their integrity as a group.

The runoff has become so nasty that Republicans are already planning “unity” events; Democrat Roy Barnes waits in the wings, raising money.

There are two Republican congressional runoffs that will affect turnout patterns; one is for Deal’s old seat in North Georgia, where special election runoff winner Tom Graves will face former state legislator Lee Hawkins for the fourth time in three months.  The other is in Handel’s base area, in north metro Atlanta, where longtime conservative congressman John Linder (R) is retiring.  His former chief of staff, Rob Woodall, is expected to defeat Jody Hice, a Southern Baptist minister and radio gabber whose billboards feature a reference to the president with a hammer-and-sickle replacing the “c” in the word “change.”  Nice.

Connecticut

In Connecticut, both parties have competitive gubernatorial primaries involving self-funded candidates facing challengers who are receiving pretty generous public financing under the state’s Clean Elections system (which is under attack in the courts in the aftermath of the Citizens United decision).  Among Democrats, wealthy cable station owner Ned Lamont, famous for his left-bent challenge to Joe Lieberman in 2006, has run a surprisingly “centrist” campaign focused on the state’s many fiscal and economic problems.  His challenger, former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, who narrowly lost the gubernatorial nomination four years ago, has been pounding him in a populist vein, while fending off allegations that he helped give a company that did work on his home a no-bid contract as mayor (not something you’d want to do in this state, since that’s what brought down former Gov. John Rowland). Malloy has closed the gap with Lamont in the stretch run, and either candidate could win.

The Republican self-funder is former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, and the publicly-financed challenger is Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele.  This race has also featured personal attacks, mainly involving Foley’s ownership interest in a Georgia textile plant that closed, throwing workers out of jobs.  Late polls show exceptional instability in this race, but indicate that Fedele is rapidly gaining on Foley.

Meanwhile, former wrestling exec Linda McMahon, who beat former congressman Rob Simmons at the state GOP convention for the official party endorsement, will face Simmons (who reentered the race after dropping out for a while) and Tea Party activist Peter Schiff, but isn’t expected to have much trouble winning.

Minnesota

In Minnesota, the DFL (Minnesota’s unique version of the Democratic Party) gubernatorial primary features the official party candidate (as selected in a state convention that some candidates skipped), state House Speaker Mary Anderson Kelliher, and two wealthy self-funders, former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton and former state legislator Matt Entenza, both of whom have put about $3 million into the race.  Dayton has held a steady if not spectacular lead over Kelliher, who hopes to pull a ground-game-driven upset in what could be a very low turnout election.  All three Democrats lead certain Republican nominee Tom Emmer in general election polls, partly because the likely candidate of the Independence Party (still around more than a decade after Jesse Ventura’s election), Tom Horner, is pulling a lot of Republican votes. The DFL hasn’t won a governor’s race since 1986, but this could be the year the drought ends.

If you want more details, I’ve done previews of Colorado, Georgia and Connecticut/Minnesota over at FiveThirtyEight.

Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.

Photo Credit: brettneilson’s Photostream

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Midwestern Primary Gleanings

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Yesterday’s primaries in Kansas, Michigan and Missouri didn’t get a whole lot of national attention, but they produced some interesting results.

As I mentioned yesterday, MI gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder ran a campaign very much at odds with the CW that the only way to win a GOP primary is to loudly and repeatedly proclaim one’s fidelity to conservative principles and policy positions. The self-proclaimed “nerd” won handily, with 36% of the vote as compared to 27% for congressman Pete Hoekstra and a very disappointing 23% for Attorney General Mike Cox.

Since Snyder explicitly appealed for crossover votes, political detectives (myself included) will try to figure out if that was a big factor in his victory. It was rather interesting that turnout tilted 2-1 Republican in a state that hasn’t gone Republican in a presidential contest since 1988. Certainly the idea that Democrats got involved in a Republican primary will be a source of consolation to conservatives who are none too happy with the results.

Meanwhile, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate known for “centrism,” House Speaker Andy Dillon, didn’t do so well, losing to labor-backed Lansing mayor Virg Bernero by a 59-41 margin. Bernero edged Dillon in his Detroit-area base and then waxed him in heavily unionized areas elsewhere.

The other big Democratic news from Michigan was the defeat of Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick by state senator Hansen Clarke, a development generally attributed to the disastrous decline and fall of her son, former Detroit mayor and current prison inmate Kwame Kilpatrick.

Elsewhere Republicans made the most news and the CW pretty much held. In KS, in a contest dominated by conflicting claims of superior conservatism, Rep. Jerry Moran defeated Rep. Todd Tiahrt by a 50-45 margin, mainly by running up a bigger vote in his own House district. In terms of national endorsements, it was a win for Jim DeMint and a loss for Sarah Palin and Tom Tancredo.

In House races, the big winner on the night was probably the Club for Growth, whichbacked winning candidates in three crowded GOP primaries (MI-3, KS-1 and KS-4). In MI-1, Bart Stupak’s district, where a competitive race is expected in November, add another data point to the Every Vote Counts argument, as exactly one vote separated the two leading Republican candidates (a recount is pending).

And offsetting their bad news from the Michigan governor’s race, conservatives today are crowing about the results of a referendum in Missouri over a proposed state law aimed at blocking implementation of federal health reform legislation. Proposition C, which essentially challenges the U.S. Constitution’s Supremacy Clause by outlawing mandated health insurance, won by a 71-29 margin, which is very impressive until you realize that primary turnout in Missouri was 2-1 Republican. In any event, the referendum will have no practical effect, but that won’t keep conservatives from bragging about it.

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist

Photo Credit: Samantha Celera’s Photostream

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A Week of Decisive Primaries

Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

This week’s political menu features four state primaries, today in Kansas, Michigan and Missouri, and on Thursday in Tennessee. Since none of these states have 50 percent requirements for party nominations, the primaries will be decisive, and in many cases involving large fields of candidates and low turnout rates, nominees will head towards November without a whole lot in the way of demonstrated public appeal.

Speaking of low turnout, estimates are that about 20 percent of Kansans (a closed primary state) will vote today, with perhaps 25 percent in Michigan and Missouri (open primary states).

The marquee events in Michigan are competitive gubernatorial primaries in both parties (Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is term-limited). On the Democratic side, House Speaker Andy Dillon, generally regarded as a moderate, held the lead for months, but seems to have lost it to a late surge by labor-backed Lansing mayor Virg Bernero. According to a survey last week from Michigan-based EPIC-MRA, Bernero leads Dillon 40-32, though the undecided vote remains high. On the margins, the Democratic turnout could be influenced by the high-profile efforts of one Republican candidate, former Gateway executive Rick Snyder, to encourage a crossover vote (Michigan allows voters to choose which primary they will participate in after they enter the voting booth).

That same EPIC-MRA poll shows Snyder, who has outspent his opponents using personal wealth, in a very close three-way race for the GOP nomination against Attorney General Mike Cox and Rep. Peter Hoekstra. Lingering back in the pack is Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, the favorite candidate of Michigan-bred Guitar-Idol-turned-Right-Wing-Activist Ted Nugent. As is often the case in this year’s GOP primaries, Hoekstra and Cox are engaged in a more-conservative-than-thou competition.  But unusually, Snyder is content to be labeled a “moderate,” and has accepted an endorsement from longtime Republican Gov. Bill Milliken, who in turn endorsed the last two Democratic presidential nominees. Former Congressman Joe Schwarz, widely reviled as a RINO by Michigan conservatives, is heading up an outreach program for Snyder among Democratic and independents. If this works, the iron control of the GOP nationally by the conservative movement will relax the slightest bit, and if it fails, it will be an object lesson to would-be Republican moderates everywhere.

There are a host of competitive congressional primaries in Michigan today, mostly on the Republican side, where candidates will battle for nominations for three open seats (two now held by Republicans, including gubernatorial candidate Hoekstra and fellow-West-Michigander Vern Ehlers, and one now held by retiring Democrat Rep. Bart Stupak), and for the right to take on theoretically vulnerable Democratic freshmen Mark Schauer and Gary Peters. Among Democrats, the big races involve challenges to long-time incumbents, with Detroit Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in very big trouble (in no small part because of the sins of her son, former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick). Having won re-nomination two years ago against a divided field, Kilpatrick is now in danger of losing to State Senator Hansen Clarke.  The incumbent has fought back with endorsements and campaign appearances from Jesse Jackson, Sr., and Jim Clyburne, but nobody will be surprised if she becomes the fourth House incumbent to lose in a primary so far this year. Another incumbent unlikely to meet that fate is Sandy Levin, who is burying challenger State Senator Mike Switalski in heavy spending and active campaigning (securing fundraising help from Bill Clinton).

In Missouri, the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond will be formalized today, with Democrat Robin Carnahan facing only token opposition, and Rep. Roy Blunt likely defeating Tea Party favorite, State Senator Chuck Purgason. Blunt did a good job of recruiting national conservative support, most notably the chair of the new House Tea Party Caucus, Michele Bachmann of Minnesota. The Carnahan-Blunt race will match representatives of Missouri’s two most prominent political dynasties; Roy is the father of former Gov. Matt Blunt, while Robin is the daughter of Mel (governor) and Jean (senator) Carnahan.

The hottest House race in MO is the Republican contest to choose an opponent for House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Ike Skelton, who represents an increasingly conservative district that routinely goes Republican in presidential elections. State Senator Bill Stouffer appears to be the GOP establishment’s choice, while Vickie Hartzler is a longtime Christian Right activist. With a ton of minor candidates on the ballot, these two stand out, and Skelton hopes to drown the winner financially.  He does have a long record of winning big in this district, dating back to 1976,

Over in Kansas, the marquee race is the Republican nomination to succeed Sen. Sam Brownback, who’s running for governor. Two incumbent Republican House members, Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran, are locked in a relatively close contest dominated by Tiahrt’s efforts to play the “true conservative” card against front-runner Moran. While Tiahrt has been endorsed by Sarah Palin and Tom Tancredo, Moran has countered with his own endorsement from Jim DeMint, and by becoming a charter member (along with Tiahrt) of the House Tea Party Caucus. Geography may matter a lot in this race; Moran’s expected to do well in his central-west Kansas district, and Tiahrt in his Wichita-based district. The key could be performance in the 3rd district that includes socially moderate Kansas City suburbs, where Moran’s reputation for grinding his teeth a bit less than Tiahrt on issues like abortion could actually help him.

There are competitive Republican primaries in both the Moran and Tiahrt districts, with the latter featuring a long-shot Democratic chance at a pickup thanks to a strong, well-financed candidate, Raj Goyle. In the state’s one current Democratic district, Stephene Moore is trying to succeed her husband, retiring Rep. Dennis Moore, and in the Republican primary, establishment favorite Kevin Yoder, with a big financial advantage, is trying to hold off former State Rep. Patricia Lightner, a favorite of anti-abortion activists.

On Thursday in Tennessee, the big race is the Republican contest for governor (Democratic incumbent Phil Bredeson is term-limited), with the deep pockets of Knoxville Mayor Bill Halsam helping him maintain a lead over Chattanooga-based Rep. Zach Wamp and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey.

With all three of the leading candidates hailing from East Tennessee, Haslam’s heavy spending could vault him to a big lead in the middle and western sections of the state. The other two candidates appear to be willing to do just about anything to get free media and seize the coveted “true conservative” mantle.  Wamp had to backtrack a bit after suggesting that he’d be willing to push secession of his state if health reform isn’t repealed. And Ramsey weighed in against construction of an Islamic community center in Mufreesboro, suggesting that the First Amendment might not apply to Muslims on grounds that Islam is “a cult.” Yee-haw.

Democratic candidate Mike McWherter, son of former Democratic governor Ned McWherter, awaits the winner of the GOP nomination.

Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.

Photo Credit: Theresa Thompson’s Photostream

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Hot Night In Oklahoma

Tuesday, July 27th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Today’s primary election is in Oklahoma. Both parties have interesting gubernatorial contests, while Democrats have one congressional primary of national interest and Republicans have two.

Oklahoma is a “runoff state,” where majorities are required for party nominations (runoffs will be held on August 24).  It’s also a closed primary state.  49 percent of Oklahomans are currently registered as Democrats, and 40 percent as Republicans, though Republican turnout could wind up higher thanks to a surplus of competitive races.

The current governor, Democrat Brad Henry, is term-limited, and the two Democratic political heavyweights who are competing to succeed him are generally in the moderate-conservative tradition he exemplifies.  The frontrunner from the beginning has been longtime (1995-present) Attorney General Drew Edmondson, an Okie from Muscogee who is the latest representative of a distinguished political family.  Edmondson raised the hackles of conservatives this year by refusing to join the multi-state Attorney General lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of health reform.  But he also has been endorsed by the NRA.  His opponent, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, has managed to more or less keep up with the well—financed Edmondson on the money front (in part through a large personal loan to her campaign), and sports a slightly better performance in general election trial heats.  One survey suggests that Edmondson is doing a lot better than Askins among strong Obama supporters, union members, and minority voters; in a low-turnout primary that could matter a lot.  But in this unusually civil race, the main divide has been geographical: Edmondson is doing very well in the vote-heavy Tulsa area, while Askins’ base is in the more Republican southwest Oklahoma region.   Askins’ final ace-in-the-hold is a late endorsement by former Oklahoma Sooners’ football coach Barry Switzer, a huge celebrity in the state; a similar Switzer endorsement is thought to have contributed mightily to Brad Henry’s late surge in 2002.

The polling in this race has shown Edmondson with a marginal lead, however, many of the voters are still undecided.  The final Sooner Poll shows Edmondson up 49-33; the final Sooner Survey poll has a much larger undecided vote, with Edmondson leading 38-27.  There is no third candidate, so there will be no runoff.

On the Republican side, the gubernatorial primary initially looked like a classic showdown between an “establishment” (if very conservative) officeholder, Congresswoman Mary Fallin, and Tea Party activist state senator Randy Brogdon.  Fallin, a fixture in Oklahoma politics (she was Lt. Gov. from 1995-2007 before winning election to the House), voted for TARP.  But aside from maintaining a large financial advantage (about 4-1), Fallin worked hard to line up national “validators” of her conservatism, winning endorsements from Sarah Palin, Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty and the latest conservative celebrity, Jan Brewer.  And it’s thought that Brodgon went a little over the top in accusing Fallin of corruption.

In any event, polls show Fallin poised to win without a runoff.  The final Sooner Poll has her up over Brogdon 56-18; the Sooner Survey puts her lead at 50-22.  With two minor candidates in the field, Brogdon could theoretically force Fallin into a runoff, but it’s unlikely.  His best hope is very low turnout and a good showing in his Tulsa base.

There’s a red-hot Republican primary to succeed Fallin in the House, and a late Sooner Poll shows the long-time front-runner, former state legislator Kevin Calvey running first with 28%, though political newcomer and “conservative outsider” James Lankford is moving up very fast.  A runoff between the two is the most likely outcome.

The other congressional district with a lot of activity today is the 2nd district, where Blue Dog Democrat Dan Boren (son of former U.S. Senator and current University of Oklahoma president David Boren) has attracted both a primary challenge and a large field of Republican opponents.  Boren’s primary opponent, state senator Jim Wilson, has attracted a lot of national netroots support for his criticism of Boren’s conservative voting record, but unfortunately for him, not much money. Boren should win handily. There are six Republicans vying for the nomination in the 2nd, and though this is a nationally targeted race for the GOP, their candidates here are little known and underfunded.  A Republican runoff is very probable, though it’s anybody’s guess who will be in it (businessman Howard Houchen is the best-funded).

Despite the Democratic registration advantage, Republicans control both chambers of the Oklahoma legislature, both Senate seats, and four of five House seats.  If they can win back the governorship after eight years of Democratic control, and somehow knock off Boren, this would solidify their domination of Oklahoma politics.  But Boren’s generally considered a heavy favorite for November, and both Edmondson and Askins are within single digits of Fallin in general election polling.

Looking Forward

Next up on the primary calendar are Kansas, Michigan and Missouri on August 3, and Tennessee on August 5.  It’s been an interesting week in Tennessee’s highly competitive Republican gubernatorial primary.  Congressman Zach Wamp got some unwanted national attention after suggesting that the Volunteer State might have to secede from the Union if health reform is not repealed. He later retracted the threat, but vowed to fight the feds tooth and nail through steps short of armed rebellion. And then another major candidate, Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, in response to right-wing angst over the construction of an Islamic community center in Murfreesboro, allowed as how he wasn’t sure the First Amendment applied to Muslims since Islam may not be a religion, but instead a “nationality, way of life or cult.”

Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.

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Newt Versus Sarah

Thursday, July 15th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

It didn’t get the kind of national attention that Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Karen Handel received, but it could matter down the road: Newt Gingrich has endorsed his former House colleague Nathan Deal for governor of Georgia, just a week before the July 20 primary. Moreover, Gingrich offered his imprimatur in Georgia, not on a Facebook site (Palin’s only venue for Handel so far), and has cut an ad for the North Georgia party-switcher.

I’d say this is a pretty risky gambit for Newt, taking on Palin in his own home state, all the more because this is an extremely unstable race. Five different polling outfits have released surveys of this contest since July 1, and the results are all over the place. Two polls, from Survey USA and Mason-Dixon, have shown longtime frontrunner John Oxendine maintaining his lead with over 30 percent of the vote, and Karen Handel moving up into second place at 23 percent. Two other polls, from Insider Advantage and Magellan, have Oxendine’s support collapsing down into the teens; IA had him tied with Handel, and Magellan had Handel surging into the lead. All four polls had Nathan Deal bumping along in the teens as well, and not showing much momentum.

Now Rasmussen‘s weighed in with a poll showing Handel and Deal tied for the lead at 25 percent, with Oxendine semi-collapsing back to 20 percent.

If Rasmussen’s right, and Handel and Deal wind up in a runoff, the Newt-Versus-Sarah story-line will get a lot more play, and pressure on Palin to personally campaign for her latest Mama Grizzly will grow intense.

All this activity is preliminary, of course, to the general election, and the latest poll to test various Republicans against likely Democratic nominee Roy Barnes, the Mason-Dixon survey, shows the former governor tied with Oxendine, up eleven points over Handel, and up eighteen points over Deal.

Photo Credit: Auburnxc’s Photostream

This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.

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Primary Turnout Challenge

Tuesday, July 13th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

Today’s political feature is the runoff in Alabama, which I previewed in the last PPI political memo. As noted then, turnout patterns will probably be the determining factor in the GOP gubernatorial runoff, with the big question being whether Democrats will cross over in significant numbers. In the congressional runoffs, Democrat Terri Sewell is the favorite to win virtual election to the House in the 7th district seat vacated by unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Artur Davis, and Martha Roby should be able to turn back viral ad star Rick Barber in the Republican contest in the 2nd district. In most of the state, voters will be suffering through hot, humid weather with possible thunderstorms.

The primary state up next on the calendar is Georgia on July 20, and the highly competitive Republican gubernatorial primary there was roiled yesterday by Sarah Palin’s endorsement of former Secretary of State Karen Handel. It’s not clear yet whether Palin’s endorsement was one of those one-off interventions that have often characterized her activity this year (viz. her endorsement of Terry Brandstad in Iowa without so much as a phone conversation), or will be followed up by more active engagement. But it was well-timed: Handel has been moving up in the polls recently, holding a strong second place behind long-time front-runner John Oxendine in a SUSA poll released last week. Much as happened in Iowa, Georgia’s social conservatives have not reacted well to Palin’s endorsement, and former congressman Nathan Deal, who has been battling Handel for a runoff spot, put out a release expressing disappointment in Palin for supporting “the most liberal Republican in this race.”

Rhetoric aside, Handel’s profile in the race is actually pretty similar to that of another recent Palin endorsee, South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, at least before hamhanded allegations about Haley’s sex life and background took over news coverage and vaulted her to a landslide runoff victory. Like Haley, Handel is positioning herself as a “conservative reformer” taking on the state GOP’s good ol’ boys, and her single biggest problem, poor fundraising, may have been offset by the attention she’ll get from Palin’s endorsement. Right now an Oxendine-Handel runoff is the most likely outcome next Tuesday, though both Deal and a fourth candidate, Eric Johnson (who’s been running copious television ads) will fight her tooth and nail to the finish.

An even bigger name than Palin got involved in Georgia’s Democratic gubernatorial primary over the weekend, as former president Bill Clinton endorsed Attorney General Thurbert Baker. This wasn’t that big a surprise, since Baker was Hillary Clinton’s highest-profile Georgia supporter in 2008 (at least after John Lewis defected to the Obama camp). And there are no signs that the Big Dog will actually show up in Georgia to thump the tubs for Thurbert. But Baker definitely needs the help. Long assumed to have a virtual lock on a runoff spot opposite former Gov. Roy Barnes, Baker’s late-developing campaign has struggled to get off the ground, and recent polls show Barnes headed for a primary victory without a runoff (there are two other significant candidates on the ballot: former Secretary of State David Poythress and Democratic state legislative leader Dubose Porter). With some more attention, Baker might have a chance to keep Barnes below 50 percent: he’s an African-American in a state where a majority of the likely Democratic primary voters are African-American, and he’s lately found a distinctive issue by coming out for an electronic bingo initiative to help forestall education cuts.

In polling news, Rasmussen has a survey of general election matchups in the Colorado Senate race, showing another beneficiary of a Bill Clinton endorsement, former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, running a bit better than incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) against either of the two main Republican candidates, Ken Buck or Jane Norton. Colorado’s primary is four weeks from today.

Quinnipiac has released a new poll of the PA governor’s race, which, as in its May survey, shows Democrat Dan Onorato within single digits of Republican Tom Corbett, who leads 44-37.

The first poll in a good while in Indiana, by Rasmussen, shows Republican Dan Coats continuing to hold a big (51-30) lead over Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IA) for the Senate, though Ellsworth’s approval/disapproval ratio remains relatively strong at 42-29.

Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.

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Alabama Runoff Preview

Friday, July 9th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

On Tuesday, Alabamans will troop back to the polls for primary runoff elections, with nationally significant contests including the Republican race for governor and two congressional races (Republicans in AL-02 and Democrats in AL-07).

Alabama is the rare state that allows voters to participate in a Democratic primary and then vote in a Republican runoff (the reverse is not, however, allowed). With no Democratic gubernatorial runoff, hopes or fears of Democratic crossover has been a major factor in the Republican contest. That’s mainly a function of the longstanding feud between first-place primary finisher Bradley Byrne and the Alabama Education Association, the NEA affiliate that most teachers in the state belong to. Byrne has sought to make his hatred of “union bosses” and particularly AEA the main issue in the runoff, and accuses his opponent, state representative Robert Bentley, of being AEA’s stooge (Bentley did receive a campaign contribution from AEA, and voted with the association on some key legislative issues). Dr. Bentley, whose second-place primary finish (narrowly defeating Tim James and then surviving a recount) was the biggest surprise of that evening, could benefit from a crossover vote, some of it from teachers resentful of Byrne’s endless AEA-bashing, some from his above-the-fray, feel-good message that drew much of its power from the nastiness of the Byrne-James rivalry.

Byrne won 28 percent in the primary to Bentley’s 25 percent. More importantly, he did best in the high-population counties along I-65 (e.g., Mobile, Montgomery, Jefferson, Madison) where the most reliable Republican voters live. Long the favorite of the Alabama business community, Byrne has had a fundraising advantage in the runoff. (Bentley, a prominent dermatologist who once treated Bear Bryant, has self-financed much of his own campaign) Byrne’s other advantage is historical: first-place primary finishers usually win Alabama runoffs.

But the one independent poll (commissioned by an Alabama firm, Public Strategy Associates) released so far shows Bentley with a 53-33 lead. Byrne has challenged the objectivity of this poll, and claims his own internal polls show him up by 4 points. Most independent observers expect a close race, with the size and shape of the runoff electorate being the key variable. The big intangible is whether Byrne’s efforts to tie Bentley to AEA work or backfire. During the primary campaign, Byrne similarly linked Tim James to AEA, and while James is officially neutral in the runoff, his campaign manager has endorsed Bentley.

Waiting in the wings is Democratic nominee Ron Sparks, who could benefit from any bad blood developed during the GOP primary and runoff.

The one big Democratic contest that could draw a lot of voters otherwise available to cross over to the GOP runoff is in Artur Davis’ 7th congressional district, where first-place primary finisher Terri Sewell, a Birmingham bond attorney originally from Selma, faces Jefferson County (Birmingham) commissioner Sheila Smoot. Both candidates are African-Americans, and the survivor is certain to win the general election. The third-place finisher, Earl Hilliard, Jr., is neutral in the runoff, but a political group that endorsed him in the primary, the Alabama New South Coalition, has now endorsed Sewell, while another African-American political group, the Alabama Democratic Conference, which was neutral in the primary, has now endorsed Smoot. Turnout is likely to be dominated by Jefferson County, where there are a number of runoffs for local offices. Sewell has to be rated the favorite given her strong performance in the primary.

Republicans have their own red-hot congressional runoff in the southeast Alabama 2nd congressional district, where first-place primary finisher Martha Roby, the GOP establishment favorite, is trying to hold off a challenge from Tea Party activist Rick Barber. Barber has received a lot of national attention for a viral internet ad entitled “Gather Your Armies,” which appears to suggest that the Founding Fathers would favor another American revolution against the Obama administration. But Roby, who received 48 percent of the vote in the primary, is likely to win.

Poll Watch

In polling news, Rasmussen has a survey of West Virginians testing a hypothetical 2010 special election to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (Gov. Joe Manchin is awaiting an attorney general’s ruling on whether he could move the special election up from 2012 to this November). It shows Manchin as a solid favorite over the two likeliest Republican opponents, but also indicates strong opposition to the idea of Manchin appointing himself to the job first. An early PPP poll on Kentucky’s 2011 gubernatorial race shows incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear with better approval ratios than in the recent past, and now running essentially even with two likely Republican opponents.

And in poll-related news, Huffington Post has acquired the popular poll results and analysis site Pollster.com from its prior owner, YouGov/Polimetrix (which published the site through National Journal). Political junkies will inevitably compare this development to the recently announced partnership between the New York Times and another poll-and-numbers-focused internet site, FiveThirtyEight (where, in full disclosure, I am a regular contributor).

Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday

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A Push For Regional Primaries

Thursday, January 14th, 2010
Ed Kilgore


Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.

by Ed Kilgore

A recent report from a “Democratic Change Commission” authorized by the last national convention to look at the presidential nominating system mainly got attention for its predictable recommendation that “superdelegates” lose their independent voting power. The “supers” will still get convention seats and votes, but said votes will be allocated according to primary or caucus results in their home states (which could make the DC primary of greater-than-usual interest).

A second Change Commission recommendation got a bit of attention: another in a long series of efforts to reduce “front-loading” of the nominating process by pushing the “windows” for allowable primaries and caucuses forward a month (the Commission did not, however, tamper with the two-tiered process by which four states—IA, NV, NH and SC—get their own early “window”).

But virtually no one was aware of a third recommendation, until yesterday, when 538.com’s Tom Schaller interviewed Change Commission member (and 2008 “delegate guru” for the Obama campaign) Jeff Berman. According to Berman, the commission is encouraging the party to award bonus convention delegates to states that agree to cooperate in regional primary/caucus “clusters.” Regional primaries, long a favorite idea of critics of the current system, are relatively efficient ways of enabling candidates to compete for significant delegate counts, particularly when contrasted with the high costs and sheer madness of big, scattered national “clusters” like Super Tuesday, or the inefficiency of dozens of individual contests.

The big questions, of course, are (1) whether the party chooses to make the “bonuses” large enough to actually encourage states to participate in regional primaries, and (2) whether there’s a parallel movement by Republicans, since many states require both parties to hold nominating events on the same day. On this latter point, it’s probably an ideal time for Democrats to make changes in the nominating system, as nobody much expects a challenge to President Obama in 2012. But with Republicans anticipating a wide-open nomination contest, any changes in the system will be scrutinized minutely for their possible impact on particular candidates.

I would argue that a direct assault on the “right” of states to control the presidential nominating process is the only way to ensure major reforms. But barring that, the carrots-and-sticks approach of the Change Commission is perhaps the best available avenue for reform. And there’s no time like the present to undertake it.

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