This week’s political menu features four state primaries, today in Kansas, Michigan and Missouri, and on Thursday in Tennessee. Since none of these states have 50 percent requirements for party nominations, the primaries will be decisive, and in many cases involving large fields of candidates and low turnout rates, nominees will head towards November without a whole lot in the way of demonstrated public appeal.
Speaking of low turnout, estimates are that about 20 percent of Kansans (a closed primary state) will vote today, with perhaps 25 percent in Michigan and Missouri (open primary states).
The marquee events in Michigan are competitive gubernatorial primaries in both parties (Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is term-limited). On the Democratic side, House Speaker Andy Dillon, generally regarded as a moderate, held the lead for months, but seems to have lost it to a late surge by labor-backed Lansing mayor Virg Bernero. According to a survey last week from Michigan-based EPIC-MRA, Bernero leads Dillon 40-32, though the undecided vote remains high. On the margins, the Democratic turnout could be influenced by the high-profile efforts of one Republican candidate, former Gateway executive Rick Snyder, to encourage a crossover vote (Michigan allows voters to choose which primary they will participate in after they enter the voting booth).
That same EPIC-MRA poll shows Snyder, who has outspent his opponents using personal wealth, in a very close three-way race for the GOP nomination against Attorney General Mike Cox and Rep. Peter Hoekstra. Lingering back in the pack is Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, the favorite candidate of Michigan-bred Guitar-Idol-turned-Right-Wing-Activist Ted Nugent. As is often the case in this year’s GOP primaries, Hoekstra and Cox are engaged in a more-conservative-than-thou competition. But unusually, Snyder is content to be labeled a “moderate,” and has accepted an endorsement from longtime Republican Gov. Bill Milliken, who in turn endorsed the last two Democratic presidential nominees. Former Congressman Joe Schwarz, widely reviled as a RINO by Michigan conservatives, is heading up an outreach program for Snyder among Democratic and independents. If this works, the iron control of the GOP nationally by the conservative movement will relax the slightest bit, and if it fails, it will be an object lesson to would-be Republican moderates everywhere.
There are a host of competitive congressional primaries in Michigan today, mostly on the Republican side, where candidates will battle for nominations for three open seats (two now held by Republicans, including gubernatorial candidate Hoekstra and fellow-West-Michigander Vern Ehlers, and one now held by retiring Democrat Rep. Bart Stupak), and for the right to take on theoretically vulnerable Democratic freshmen Mark Schauer and Gary Peters. Among Democrats, the big races involve challenges to long-time incumbents, with Detroit Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in very big trouble (in no small part because of the sins of her son, former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick). Having won re-nomination two years ago against a divided field, Kilpatrick is now in danger of losing to State Senator Hansen Clarke. The incumbent has fought back with endorsements and campaign appearances from Jesse Jackson, Sr., and Jim Clyburne, but nobody will be surprised if she becomes the fourth House incumbent to lose in a primary so far this year. Another incumbent unlikely to meet that fate is Sandy Levin, who is burying challenger State Senator Mike Switalski in heavy spending and active campaigning (securing fundraising help from Bill Clinton).
In Missouri, the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond will be formalized today, with Democrat Robin Carnahan facing only token opposition, and Rep. Roy Blunt likely defeating Tea Party favorite, State Senator Chuck Purgason. Blunt did a good job of recruiting national conservative support, most notably the chair of the new House Tea Party Caucus, Michele Bachmann of Minnesota. The Carnahan-Blunt race will match representatives of Missouri’s two most prominent political dynasties; Roy is the father of former Gov. Matt Blunt, while Robin is the daughter of Mel (governor) and Jean (senator) Carnahan.
The hottest House race in MO is the Republican contest to choose an opponent for House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Ike Skelton, who represents an increasingly conservative district that routinely goes Republican in presidential elections. State Senator Bill Stouffer appears to be the GOP establishment’s choice, while Vickie Hartzler is a longtime Christian Right activist. With a ton of minor candidates on the ballot, these two stand out, and Skelton hopes to drown the winner financially. He does have a long record of winning big in this district, dating back to 1976,
Over in Kansas, the marquee race is the Republican nomination to succeed Sen. Sam Brownback, who’s running for governor. Two incumbent Republican House members, Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran, are locked in a relatively close contest dominated by Tiahrt’s efforts to play the “true conservative” card against front-runner Moran. While Tiahrt has been endorsed by Sarah Palin and Tom Tancredo, Moran has countered with his own endorsement from Jim DeMint, and by becoming a charter member (along with Tiahrt) of the House Tea Party Caucus. Geography may matter a lot in this race; Moran’s expected to do well in his central-west Kansas district, and Tiahrt in his Wichita-based district. The key could be performance in the 3rd district that includes socially moderate Kansas City suburbs, where Moran’s reputation for grinding his teeth a bit less than Tiahrt on issues like abortion could actually help him.
There are competitive Republican primaries in both the Moran and Tiahrt districts, with the latter featuring a long-shot Democratic chance at a pickup thanks to a strong, well-financed candidate, Raj Goyle. In the state’s one current Democratic district, Stephene Moore is trying to succeed her husband, retiring Rep. Dennis Moore, and in the Republican primary, establishment favorite Kevin Yoder, with a big financial advantage, is trying to hold off former State Rep. Patricia Lightner, a favorite of anti-abortion activists.
On Thursday in Tennessee, the big race is the Republican contest for governor (Democratic incumbent Phil Bredeson is term-limited), with the deep pockets of Knoxville Mayor Bill Halsam helping him maintain a lead over Chattanooga-based Rep. Zach Wamp and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey.
With all three of the leading candidates hailing from East Tennessee, Haslam’s heavy spending could vault him to a big lead in the middle and western sections of the state. The other two candidates appear to be willing to do just about anything to get free media and seize the coveted “true conservative” mantle. Wamp had to backtrack a bit after suggesting that he’d be willing to push secession of his state if health reform isn’t repealed. And Ramsey weighed in against construction of an Islamic community center in Mufreesboro, suggesting that the First Amendment might not apply to Muslims on grounds that Islam is “a cult.” Yee-haw.
Democratic candidate Mike McWherter, son of former Democratic governor Ned McWherter, awaits the winner of the GOP nomination.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Photo Credit: Theresa Thompson’s Photostream
Our final regional roundup for the stretch drive involves the Midwest, defined as states from Ohio and Kentucky west to the Great Plains. There are six Republican Senate seats up this year, though one race – South Dakota — is uncontested and the GOP has long held huge lead in two others – Iowa and Kansas. Ohio has recently slipped out of the competitive range with Rob Portman holding regular double-digit leads over Lee Fisher, and Roy Blunt has opened up a pretty steady lead over Robin Carnahan in Missouri. The closest race for a Republican seat is in Kentucky, but Rand Paul seems to have stabilized his campaign and now has a small but steady lead over Jack Conway. One Democratic Senate seat is gone, in North Dakota, where Gov. John Hoeven has a vast lead, and another is virtually gone, unless Brad Ellsworth soon makes up some ground against Dan Coats. Illinois is a real crapshoot, with recent polls showing a dead heat between Democrat Alex Giannoulis and Republican Mark Kirk, with a persistently high third party/undecided vote. So it’s looking like a net gain of two to three Senate seats for the GOP in the Heartland.