Posts Tagged ‘
Tim James ’
Wednesday, July 14th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Going into yesterday’s Alabama runoffs, the Republican gubernatorial contest revolved around rumors of a big, teacher-union-generated Democratic crossover vote in favor of Dr. Robert Bentley, along with speculation that his opponent, Bradley Byrne, might have gained crucial momentum by accusing Bentley of being a Democratic or union stooge.
Bentley beat Byrne 56-44, and a cursory look at the returns shows no evidence of any massive Democratic crossover vote. In fact, turnout was down 6 percent from the primary, with no apparent relationship between Republican turnout numbers and those counties with or without significant Democratic contests to keep Democrats on their side of the line. Moreover, Byrne did quite well in most of the counties with a big Democratic constituency. There was some anecdotal buzz yesterday about Democratic crossover in isolated locations (e.g., Madison County, where Republican turnout actually dropped 17 percent), but most election officials said it didn’t seem to be happening.
The much more likely explanation is that Bentley got the bulk of voters who cast ballots for Tim James and Roy Moore in the primary, hardly a stretch since both their campaign managers endorsed Bentley. James voters in particular probably discounted Byrne’s attacks on Bentley as no more credible than Byrne’s earlier attacks on their candidate.
In any event, future Republican candidates who think demonizing teachers unions is a failsafe strategy should take a close look at Alabama.
In the two congressional runoffs, nothing that unusual happened, either. In the 2nd district Republican contest, “establishment” candidate Martha Roby easily dispatched Tea Party activist Rick Barber 60-40, beating him nearly three-to-one in their common home county, Montgomery, where the fiery pool hall owner did not gather his armies effectively. Roby will now face Democratic incumbent Bobby Bright in what is expected to be a close race in November.
And in the 7th district Democratic contest, where the Democratic nomination really is tantamount to election, Terri Sewell, who had superior financial resources and significant national support, defeated Shelia Smoot 55-45, with the key being Sewell’s 54-46 margin in Jefferson County, where local races boosted turnout.
Photo credit: Roadside Bandit’s Photostream
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Tags: Alabama, Bobby Bright, Bradley Byrne, Campaigns and elections, Democratic Party, Madison County, Martha Roby, Republican Party, Rick Barber, Robert Bentley, Roy Moore, Shelia Smoot, Tea Party, teacher union, Terri Sewell, Tim James
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Friday, July 9th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
On Tuesday, Alabamans will troop back to the polls for primary runoff elections, with nationally significant contests including the Republican race for governor and two congressional races (Republicans in AL-02 and Democrats in AL-07).
Alabama is the rare state that allows voters to participate in a Democratic primary and then vote in a Republican runoff (the reverse is not, however, allowed). With no Democratic gubernatorial runoff, hopes or fears of Democratic crossover has been a major factor in the Republican contest. That’s mainly a function of the longstanding feud between first-place primary finisher Bradley Byrne and the Alabama Education Association, the NEA affiliate that most teachers in the state belong to. Byrne has sought to make his hatred of “union bosses” and particularly AEA the main issue in the runoff, and accuses his opponent, state representative Robert Bentley, of being AEA’s stooge (Bentley did receive a campaign contribution from AEA, and voted with the association on some key legislative issues). Dr. Bentley, whose second-place primary finish (narrowly defeating Tim James and then surviving a recount) was the biggest surprise of that evening, could benefit from a crossover vote, some of it from teachers resentful of Byrne’s endless AEA-bashing, some from his above-the-fray, feel-good message that drew much of its power from the nastiness of the Byrne-James rivalry.
Byrne won 28 percent in the primary to Bentley’s 25 percent. More importantly, he did best in the high-population counties along I-65 (e.g., Mobile, Montgomery, Jefferson, Madison) where the most reliable Republican voters live. Long the favorite of the Alabama business community, Byrne has had a fundraising advantage in the runoff. (Bentley, a prominent dermatologist who once treated Bear Bryant, has self-financed much of his own campaign) Byrne’s other advantage is historical: first-place primary finishers usually win Alabama runoffs.
But the one independent poll (commissioned by an Alabama firm, Public Strategy Associates) released so far shows Bentley with a 53-33 lead. Byrne has challenged the objectivity of this poll, and claims his own internal polls show him up by 4 points. Most independent observers expect a close race, with the size and shape of the runoff electorate being the key variable. The big intangible is whether Byrne’s efforts to tie Bentley to AEA work or backfire. During the primary campaign, Byrne similarly linked Tim James to AEA, and while James is officially neutral in the runoff, his campaign manager has endorsed Bentley.
Waiting in the wings is Democratic nominee Ron Sparks, who could benefit from any bad blood developed during the GOP primary and runoff.
The one big Democratic contest that could draw a lot of voters otherwise available to cross over to the GOP runoff is in Artur Davis’ 7th congressional district, where first-place primary finisher Terri Sewell, a Birmingham bond attorney originally from Selma, faces Jefferson County (Birmingham) commissioner Sheila Smoot. Both candidates are African-Americans, and the survivor is certain to win the general election. The third-place finisher, Earl Hilliard, Jr., is neutral in the runoff, but a political group that endorsed him in the primary, the Alabama New South Coalition, has now endorsed Sewell, while another African-American political group, the Alabama Democratic Conference, which was neutral in the primary, has now endorsed Smoot. Turnout is likely to be dominated by Jefferson County, where there are a number of runoffs for local offices. Sewell has to be rated the favorite given her strong performance in the primary.
Republicans have their own red-hot congressional runoff in the southeast Alabama 2nd congressional district, where first-place primary finisher Martha Roby, the GOP establishment favorite, is trying to hold off a challenge from Tea Party activist Rick Barber. Barber has received a lot of national attention for a viral internet ad entitled “Gather Your Armies,” which appears to suggest that the Founding Fathers would favor another American revolution against the Obama administration. But Roby, who received 48 percent of the vote in the primary, is likely to win.
Poll Watch
In polling news, Rasmussen has a survey of West Virginians testing a hypothetical 2010 special election to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (Gov. Joe Manchin is awaiting an attorney general’s ruling on whether he could move the special election up from 2012 to this November). It shows Manchin as a solid favorite over the two likeliest Republican opponents, but also indicates strong opposition to the idea of Manchin appointing himself to the job first. An early PPP poll on Kentucky’s 2011 gubernatorial race shows incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear with better approval ratios than in the recent past, and now running essentially even with two likely Republican opponents.
And in poll-related news, Huffington Post has acquired the popular poll results and analysis site Pollster.com from its prior owner, YouGov/Polimetrix (which published the site through National Journal). Political junkies will inevitably compare this development to the recently announced partnership between the New York Times and another poll-and-numbers-focused internet site, FiveThirtyEight (where, in full disclosure, I am a regular contributor).
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
Photo credit: Cave Canem’s Photostream
Tags: Alabama Democratic Conference, Alabama Education Association, Alabama New South Coalition, Bradley Byrne, Earl Hilliard Jr., Joe Manchin, Martha Roby, National Education Association, Primaries, Public Strategy Associates, Rasmussen Survey, republicans, Rick Barber, Robert Bentley, Robert Byrd, Ron Sparks, Sheila Smoot, Steve Beshear, Tea Party, Terri Sewell, Tim James
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Friday, June 25th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
We’re entering a slow period in state primaries, with the only contests on tap for the next four weeks being a runoff in Alabama on July 13 and Georgia’s primary on July 20. The former event features a Republican gubernatorial runoff between long-time front-runner Bradley Byrne and surprise second-place finisher Robert Bentley, who had to get past an unsuccessful recount petition by Tim James. In Georgia, there are competitive gubernatorial primaries in both parties, though former Gov. Roy Barnes seems to have the Democratic race well in hand at this point; Republicans have a fractious multi-candidate field led for many months by state insurance commissioner John Oxendine (whose ethics record is so controversial that RedState blogger Erick Erickson’s said he’d vote for Barnes if Oxendine wins the nomination), with a runoff almost certain. I’ll have more about both states when we get closer to the balloting.
As expected, the landslide victories on Tuesday of Asian-American Nikki Haley and African-American Tim Scott in South Carolina has spurred a lot of commentary about the GOP’s new diversity. (It hasn’t got much attention, BTW, but Haley’s Democratic opponent, Vincent Sheheen, is of Arab descent, reflecting the long-time presence of Lebanese in the Deep South). But outside South Carolina, an equally remarkable aspect of those victories has gone largely unremarked: both candidates were protégés of disgraced Republican governor Mark Sanford, who has now achieved the political equivalent of eternal life in the success of his young associates. It will also be interesting to see how well Scott (assuming he wins his heavily Republican district in November), a hard-core conservative ideologue, fits in with the Congressional Black Caucus.
Utah Republicans are recovering from a nomination cycle that involved the rejection of a long-time incumbent Senator, Bob Bennett, and then a savage primary between two very conservative candidates, with the winner, Mike Lee, being very much the vehicle for national groups determined to move the GOP to the right. To understand that these Men of Principle haven’t gotten rid of the hypocrisy of traditional politics, check out the web site of the losing candidate, Tim Bridgewater. At the top is a pre-primary jeremiad that includes this line: “My opponent, D.C.-based attorney Mike Lee, is spending $200,000 on TV and radio, spreading lies and distortions about my business background.” A bit later he accuses Lee of “a desperate lie.” But over to the left on the page is a new bulletin that, predictably, endorses that desperate liar for the general election.
Moving along, you can expect some serious political fallout around the country from the U.S. Senate’s apparent defeat of what some have called a second stimulus bill. Most of the attention in national media has been paid to the impact on people whose unemployment insurance eligibility is running out. But the bill also included $16 billion in assistance to state and local government to help forestall layoffs of teachers and other public employees. Whatever you think of that as economic policy, it’s clear the withdrawn funds will wreak havoc in those states where governors and legislators had counted on the help, including those where Republicans are nervous about the public reaction to teacher layoffs and higher public university tuition. It’s another example of how tough-sounding rhetoric on fiscal austerity and small government is more popular than the practical steps needed to reduce spending, particularly in a recession, since there’s no state budget category called “waste, fraud and abuse” that can painlessly absorb cuts.
Poll Watch
In polling news, Rasmussen has a bunch of new take-it-with-a-grain-of-salt polls. In the Nevada Senate race, a post-primary survey has Republican Sharron Angle up over Harry Reid 48-41, though her favorable/unfavorable ratio is no better than the incumbent’s. In the first general-election poll of the Vermont governor’s race in a long while, Rasmussen shows Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie leading all the Democratic candidates, though Secretary of State Deb Markowitz holds him to a 47-40 lead. And in Washington, the new poll shows Sen. Patti Murray (D) and Republican Dino Rossi in a 47-47 dead heat.
A new Magellan poll in Arizona has John McCain with a comfortable 52-29 lead over conservative challenger, J.D. Hayworth, who’s having a tough week.
Tags: Alabama, Bob Bennett, Bradley Byrne, Brian Dubie, Campaigns and elections, Deb Markowitz, Dino Rossi, Erick Erickson, Georgia, Harry Reid, John McCain, John Oxendine, Mark Sanford, Mike Lee, Nevada, Nikki Haley, Patti Murray, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Robert Bentley, Roy Barnes, Sharron Angle, Tim Bridgewater, Tim James, Tim Scott, Utah, Vermont, Vincent Sheheen
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Tuesday, June 15th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
After the cornucopia of primaries on June 8, the electoral schedule is slowing down for a bit. The next votes are on June 22, with three statewide runoffs (South Carolina, North Carolina and South Dakota) and the Utah primary.
But perhaps the most interesting set of developments over the last few days involves Alabama’s Republican gubernatorial contest, where the extremely narrow margin between second-place finisher Robert Bentley and third-place finisher Tim James has created a legal and political mess.
Alabama is one of those states with a relatively decentralized election system, particularly for primaries. There’s no automatic recount system, and technically, no such thing as a statewide recount. So a candidate like James, who is looking for 167 votes to overtake Bentley, must pursue a recount county-by-county, through county party committees utilizing volunteers, all at his own expense.
As James was gearing up for that effort last week, along came Attorney General Troy King — a Republican who got trounced in his effort to get renominated on June 1 — with an opinion holding that no challenge to the primary results could be launched until a nomination had actually been made — i.e., after the runoff. This Catch-22 situation didn’t persuade James to abandon his recount effort, but it appears that if the recount does put him into the lead, the best party leaders could do for him is to schedule a runoff after the runoff — essentially a round-robin — where he’d face the winner of the contest between Bentley and first-place finisher Bradley Byrne. As Chuck Dean of the Birmingham News says:
That scenario is keeping Republican Party state Chairman Mike Hubbard from getting a good night’s sleep.
“It’s a potential mess,” said Hubbard. “All we can do at this point is follow what the attorney general says is the law and the recommendations of the secretary of state and then see what we see. If the recount shows Bentley still in the lead, then I guess this is all over. If the recount shows James pulling ahead, then all I can say is, hold on.”
The only person enjoying this mess is probably Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ronnie Sparks.
In other runoff news, third-place finisher Henry McMaster has endorsed all-but-certain South Carolina Republican gubernatorial nominee Nikki Haley in her runoff against Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC).
Poll Watch
In polling news, Magellan Strategies has a new Louisiana survey out that illustrates the dominance of the oil and gas industries in that state’s economy, with respondents favoring an expansion of offshore drilling by a 72-15 margin.
PPP has released the first major survey of the Illinois Senate race since Rep. Mark Kirk’s (R-IL) issues with his military record emerged. It shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias edging back ahead of Kirk by a 31-30 margin with a big undecided vote.
And a new Battleground poll for NPR, jointly conducted by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, focuses on 70 competitive House districts, sixty of which are currently held by Democrats. It shows Republicans with an overall 49-41 lead in these districts, including a 47-42 lead in Democratic districts. As Stan Greenberg put it: “In a year where voters want change and in which Democrats are seen to be in power, this is a tough poll — about as tough as you [can] get.”
Photo Credit: StuSeeger
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
Tags: Alabama, Alexi Giannoulias, Bradley Byrne, Campaigns and elections, Chuck Dean, Gresham Barrett, Henry McMaster, Mark Kirk, Mike Hubbard, Nikki Haley, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Republican Party, Robert Bentley, ronnie sparks, Stan Greenberg, Tim James, Troy King
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Friday, June 11th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
In my last political memo on June 8, I made some predictions for that day’s primaries. Let’s see how I did.
Arkansas Senate Runoff: Too Close to Call. I questioned the CW favoring Halter over Lincoln, and in the end, Lincoln’s GOTV effort (with a little help from Big Dog Bill Clinton) was just enough.
South Carolina Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Nikki Haley Wins. Actually, I went right over the brink and predicted that Haley would win without a runoff, and she came about as close as possible — with 49 percent of the vote — as she could. In fact, distant second-place finisher Rep. Gresham Barrett immediately came under pressure to drop out and give Haley the nomination without further ado, but it looks like he’ll roll the dice for the short two-week runoff contest, which everyone thinks Haley will easily win (unless those accusing her of sexual misbehavior finally come up with some real evidence).
South Carolina Democratic Gubernatorial Primary: Sheheen/Rex Runoff. I was right in saying that third-place finisher Rep. Robert Ford would do well enough to force a runoff, but didn’t account for one-time front-runner Jim Rex running so poorly that state Rep. Vincent Sheheen was able to romp to victory anyway.
Iowa Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Terry Branstad wins. Check, though his nine-point margin of victory over outgunned conservative Bob Vander Plaats was a lot smaller than the polls suggested, and indicates the residual strength of social conservatives in the Iowa GOP — which will be much more powerful in the context of a presidential caucus.
Nevada Republican Senate Primary: Sharron Angle wins. Check. Angle won very easily, even carrying Clark County (Las Vegas). The real surprise here is that Danny Tarkanian, whom some experts thought might pull an upset in this race, finished a poor third. So Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) got the match-up he wanted.
Nevada Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Attorney General Brian Sandoval wins. Check; the Gibbons Era is over, and Rory Reid begins the general election as an underdog.
California Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Meg Whitman wins. Yep, and she only spent about $80 per vote.
California Republican Senate Primary: Carly Fiorina wins. She even took Marin County, which should have been Tom Campbell Country if any place was.
South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary: Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard wins. He won more votes than all his opponents combined.
I refused to make any prediction in Maine, where “undecided” was the dominant presence in pre-election polls for both parties’ gubernatorial primaries. In the end, state senate president Libby Mitchell won the Democratic nod, and Tea Party favorite Paul LePage won the Republican nomination. But independent Eliot Cutler will be competitive in the general election.
In other significant developments, Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC) of South Carolina got knocked into a runoff by tea party avatar Trey Gowdy. California voters approved Prop 14, abolishing party primaries in favor of a “jungle primary” system (like Washington State’s) where the top two finishers among candidates from all or no parties advance to the general election.
The next election day is June 22, when Utah holds its primary, while North and South Carolina, Mississippi and South Dakota hold runoffs.
In Alabama, the third-place finisher in the June 1 Republican gubernatorial primary, Tim James, is pursuing a recount to see if he can overcome Robert Bentley’s 167-vote lead for a second runoff spot against Bradley Byrne. The runoff is on July 13.
In the most interesting poll to be released in the last few days, Quinnipiac finds two self-funding candidates making a big splash in Florida. Former health care exec Rick Scott has ridden a batch of ads (mostly expressing his fondness for Arizona’s new immigration law) to a stunning lead over Attorney General Bill McCollum in the Republican gubernatorial primary; McCollum had been presumed to be the certain nominee until now. And in the Democratic Senate primary, billionaire Jeff Greene has pulled nearly even with congressman Kendrick Meek.
In more general polling news, DailyKos has terminated its relationship with the Research 2000 polling firm, which had been doing a lot of state ads for DKos. And in a very related development, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver released an updated version of his comprehensive rating of pollsters for accuracy.
Photo credit: Tom Prete’s Photostream
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday
Tags: Alabama, Arkansas, Bill Clinton, Bill Halter, Bill McCollum, Blanche Lincoln, Bob Inglis, Bob Vander Plaats, Bradley Byrne, Brian Sandoval, California, Campaigns and elections, Carly Fiorina, Danny Tarkanian, Democratic Party, Dennis Daugaard, Eliot Cutler, Gresham Barrett, Harry Reid, Iowa, Jeff Greene, Jim Rex, Kendrick Meek, Libby Mitchell, Meg Whitman, Nevada, Nikki Haley, Paul LePage, Politics and politicians, Republican Party, Rick Scott, Robert Bentley, Robert Ford, Rory Reid, Sharron Angle, South Carolina, Tea Party, Terry Branstad, Tim James, Trey Gowdy, Utah, Vincent Sheheen
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Wednesday, June 2nd, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
I didn’t actually go to Alabama last night, but I felt like it after staring at county returns half the night trying to understand the capricious will of that state’s electorate — or rather the 30 percent or so of them who voted in statewide primaries.
The shocker of the evening, of course, was Ron Sparks’ landslide 62-38 victory over Rep. Artur Davis in the Democratic gubernatorial race. Davis was the prohibitive front-runner for many months, and though there was sparse public polling in the race, he did have an eight-point lead in an R2K/DKos poll done less than two weeks out.
Now some people will look at the phenomenom of a black candidate unexpectedly losing a primary in Alabama and assume it’s all about race. And some progressives who think Artur Davis is a sell-out pseudo-Republican will assume it’s all about ideology. But I think Davis simply deployed a mistaken strategy, and that Sparks ran a smart campaign. Davis clearly tried to position himself for a general election far too early, and in keeping his distance from traditional Democratic groups, he managed to convey the sense that he wasn’t interested in their votes any more than in their public support. In a low-turnout primary, that was fatal.
It also shouldn’t be completely ignored that in an otherwise largely issues-free environment, Sparks had an issue — support for greatly expanded and regulated public gaming — that’s a proven vote-winner among Alabama Democrats.
In any event, Davis managed to lose upwards of half the African-American vote — which is why you can’t chalk up his defeat to some sort of southern-fried Bradley Effect- – while getting crushed in heavily-white northern Alabama. It was truly shocking to see the first viable African-American statewide candidate in Alabama lose majority-black counties in his own congressional district like Dallas (Selma), Hale, Marengo, Perry and Wilcox. But it’s possible to overinterpret this election: with the exception of Mobile, Artur Davis didn’t do well much of anywhere. And so, ironically, Ron Sparks enters the general election with the kind of biracial coalition behind him that Davis sought to create, in all the wrong ways.
The Republican gubernatorial primary is going to a recount because only 208 votes separate the second- and third-place finishers, Dr. Robert Bentley and Tim James. Bentley’s performance was nearly as surprising as that of Sparks; he was in single digits in the R2K/DKos poll, while James spent $4.4 million — nearly half of that his own money — and made his constant feuding with Bradley Byrne the central focus of the entire race. And it appears Bentley’s impressive showing was at least partly attributable to voters tired of the Byrne-James slugfest.
Meanwhile, Parker Griffith became the latest and no-so-greatest of party-switchers to go down to ignominous defeat, in his case losing a multi-candidate Republican primary without even making it to a runoff. At the end of a long evening, his fate brought a smile to the face of even the weariest of Democrats.
This item is cross-posted at The Democratic Strategist.
Photo credit: Larry Miller’s Photostream
Tags: Alabama, Artur Davis, Bradley Byrne, Campaigns and elections, Democrats, Parker Griffith, Politics and politicians, republicans, Robert Bentley, Ron Sparks, Tim James
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Tuesday, June 1st, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
We’re now into the heart of primary season, with next Tuesday’s 11-state (10 primaries plus the Arkansas runoff) extravaganza being the big show. But today Alabama, Mississippi and New Mexico are holding primaries, with the breadth and craziness of the contests in Alabama making that state the focus of attention.
With Alabama’s Republican Gov. Bob Riley being termed-limited, there are competitive primaries in both parties to succeed him. The race between U.S. Rep. Artur Davis and state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks for the Democratic nomination has recently tightened, with R2K/DKos showing the front-runner with a 41-33 lead (there are no other candidates).
Davis, considered a leader in the House New Democrat Coalition, is also a close friend of President Obama, if not always a reliable supporter in Congress. He’s been preparing for this race for years, and may, in fact, have begun positioning himself for a tough general election a bit too early. Sparks jumped into the race after several other prominent Democrats demurred, and has benefitted from national and local unhappiness with Davis’s voting record (particularly his conspicuous votes against health care reform) and campaign.
Though his election would be a historic event for Alabama’s African-Americans, Davis refused to seek the endorsements of several major African-American Democratic organizations, which went by default to Sparks (who is white); the underdog has also won labor endorsements, and has received strong financial backing from the NEA affiliate in the state, a major power in Democratic politics. Combined with Sparks’ support from gaming interests (he favors a state lottery and casino gambling), he’s been able to keep close to Davis in fundraising (Davis has raised $2.6 million, Sparks $1.9 million).
The Democratic race was relatively civil until the home stretch, when Sparks accused Davis of campaign finance irregularities and Davis accused Sparks of discriminatory practices at the state Ag Department. The R2K/DKos poll showed Davis, despite his spurning of African-American group endorsements, beating Sparks handily among black voters (especially in his own congressional district), with the two running even among white voters. It will likely come down to turnout patterns, with the Davis campaign’s main fear being exceptionally low African-American turnout.
The Republican gubernatorial primary has been much livelier than the Democratic contest, with a runoff certain. The front-runner all along has been former state legislator and state community college chancellor Bradley Byrne, a favorite of Alabama’s powerful business community. The battle for a runoff spot opposite Byrne has revolved around efforts of other candidates to get past “Ten Commandments Judge” Roy Moore, a Christian Right icon with close Tea Party ties, who came into the race with universal name ID and an immovable share of the electorate. Fortunately for his rivals, Moore refuses to take PAC contributions and has run a low-budget race.
That’s certainly not true of wealthy businessman (and son of former party-switching Gov. Fob James) Tim James, who’s running second or third in most polls, and who has spent $4.1 million on the race, near Byrne’s $4.7 million. James’ campaign lit up when the viral ad-master Fred Davis crafted an ad for him (just days after Arizona’s immigration law was enacted) called “Language,” ostensibly focused on demands that Alabama stop offering driver’s tests in languages other than English, which concluded with these lines: “This is Alabama. We speak English here. If you want to live here, learn it.” Mockery of the ad nationally clearly helped James among Alabama Republicans, though Byrne accused him of endangering Alabama’s heavily foreign-investment-based economic development strategy.
Though still another candidate, Dr. Robert Bentley of Tuscaloosa, made a bit of a splash by exploiting the increasingly poisonous Byrne-James competition with an upbeat message, most observers think the real game remains whether James can get past Moore. Another late development in the campaign involved reports that James (an Auburn grad whose father was an all-American football player at Auburn) was bragging that as governor he’d fire or cut the salary of Alabama Crimson Tide football coach Nick Saban, an act of sacrilege the candidate was quick to deny. Meanwhile, Byrne has been accusing James of complicity with the Alabama Education Association’s attacks on the front-runner, including (in a twist that reflects the state’s largely unregulated campaign finance system) heavy AEA contributions to a shadowy group called the True Republican PAC that’s run ads savaging Byrne for allegedly believing in evolution and doubting the literal truth of the Bible (allegations Byrne has been quick to deny).
Despite all the fireworks, early turnout in Alabama today has been notably light, but we’ll have to wait and see if that benefits well-known underdogs like Sparks and Moore.
Meanwhile, Republicans are holding highly competitive primaries in two House districts, one involving party-switcher Parker Griffith, who is in danger of being knocked into a runoff, and the other to choose an opponent for conservative Democrat Bobby Bright. Democrats are holding a barnburner in Davis’ district, with one candidate likely to make a runoff being Earl Hilliard, Jr., the son of the man Davis beat to win the seat in 2002.
The big action over in Mississippi (where state elections are held off-year) is in Republican primaries to choose opponents for vulnerable Democratic House members Travis Childers and Gene Taylor. And in New Mexico, there’s a very competitive GOP primary for Governor, with local D.A. Susana Martinez currently favored over former state party chair Allen Weh for the right to take on Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish.
This Friday I’ll have a full report on polling for the June 8 primaries.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Photo credit: RoadSide Bandit’s Photostream
Tags: Allen Weh, Artur Davis, Barack Obama, Bob Riley, Bobby Bright, Bradley Byrne, Diane Denish, Earl Hilliard Jr., Fob James, Fred Davis, Gene Taylor, Nick Sabah, Parker Griffith, Robert Bentley, Ron Sparks, Roy Moore, Susana Martinez, Tim James, Travis Childers
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Friday, May 28th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
The country remains largely focused on the Gulf oil spill going into the Memorial Day weekend, but the large batch of upcoming primary elections will keep candidates on the campaign trail and on every available communications medium.
One notable primary, Idaho’s, was held since our last update, and in the GOP competition to take on Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick, front-runner and national Republican wunderkind Vaughn Ward was beaten by state Rep. Raul Labrador, despite late personal appearances with Ward by Sarah Palin. Ward damaged himself with several gaffes, including incidents of apparent plagiarism in his speeches and a boneheaded debate statement suggesting that Puerto Rico is a foreign country. Meanwhile, Labrador (who was actually born in Puerto Rico) benefited from Tea Party support.
Next Tuesday primaries will be held in Alabama, Mississippi (whose state elections are in off-years) and New Mexico. The marquee contests then are the Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primaries in Alabama. Among Democrats, long-time front-runner Rep. Artur Davis is trying to hold off a late upswing in support for state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. Davis, an African-American, has ceded endorsements by four major African-American groups in the state to Sparks, who is white. That, along with Davis’ vote against health reform in Congress, seems to be fueling Sparks’ campaign, and the competition is getting a bit nasty down the stretch, with Sparks accusing Davis of breaking campaign finance laws and Davis running an ad accusing Sparks of discrimination at his agency.
The Alabama Republican gubernatorial contest looks to be boiling down to a question of whether Judge Roy Moore or Tim James joins state community college chancellor Bradley Byrne in a runoff. Byrne has strong business support, and is the closest thing to a moderate (by Alabama GOP standards) in the race. Moore is, of course, a Christian Right icon, and James, the son of a former party-switching governor, has sought to horn in on Moore’s political turf, helped by his own substantial financial resources. Byrne and James have been accusing each other, somewhat implausibly, of secret ties to the Alabama Education Association. And Byrne has gone after James’ famous “English-only” viral ad for threatening the foreign investment on which Alabama disproportionately depends. Believe it or not, James has had to deal with a rumor that he’s said he would cut the salary of Alabama football coach Nick Saban.
Campaigns are approaching red-hot status in many of the June 8 primary states. The hottest, and certainly the strangest, has been in South Carolina, whose Republican gubernatorial campaign was roiled this week by a conservative blogger’s claim that he had an “inappropriate physical relationship” with front-running candidate state Rep. Nikki Haley. She’s denied it categorically, and the blogger and Haley’s campaign have engaged in a cat-and-mouse game where the former has slowly released highly circumstantial “evidence” based on text message and cell phones records, and the latter has challenged the former to come forward with real evidence or shut up. Haley seems to be winning the p.r. battle the state so far, and today, the saga could take a new turn as RedState blogger Erick Erickson, one of Haley’s legion of national conservative supporters, is promising to release evidence that the accuser was paid to make the allegations (possibly by someone connected with a rival campaign). Interestingly, the whole story broke as Haley surged into the lead in polls; her most likely runoff opponent is Attorney General Henry McMaster.
In California’s torrid Republican primaries, it’s becoming reasonably clear that Meg Whitman is finally putting away Steve Poizner in the governor’s race (though Poizner is now staking everything on attacking Whitman’s opposition to the Arizona immigration law), and Carly Fiorina seems to be suddenly pulling away from Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore in the Senate race.
In Nevada, the Republican primary to choose an opponent for highly vulnerable Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has turned into an unpredictable three-way fight, with long-time front-runner Sue (“Chickens for Checkups”) Lowden trying to hold off Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle, with Danny Tarkanian not far back.
But in both California and Nevada, there are growing signs that Republican primary infighting could damage the GOP in close general election battles. In CA, the vicious and incredibly expensive Whitman-Poizner contest has been accompanied by a steady rise in the polls by Democrat Jerry Brown. The focus on immigration in the GOP race probably won’t help the party’s already fragile relationship with Latino voters, either.
And in Nevada, Harry Reid, once left for dead by most observers, is creeping back into close contention with his potential GOP opponents, actually leading the rapidly surging Sharron Angle.
UPDATE: Another strange turn in the Nikki Haley saga in South Carolina, as RedState’s Erick Erickson finally released a post following up his promise yesterday that he had the goods on someone paying big money to blogger Will Folks to smear Haley, and would “name names.” In what was apparently an attempted send-up of Folks’ own methodology, Erickson offered no evidence of a payoff at all, but instead simply expressed his own weakly documented suspicions that Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer might have had something to do with it. Hilarious, eh?
Tags: Alabama, Artur Davis, Bradley Byrne, Campaigns and elections, Carly Fiorina, Chuck DeVore, Democratic Party, Erick Erickson, Harry Reid, Henry McMaster, Idaho, Jerry Brown, Meg Whitman, Nikki Haley, Paul Labrador, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, RedState, Republican Party, Ron Sparks, Roy Moore, Sarah Palin, Sharron Angle, South Carolina, Steve Poizner, Sue Lowden, Tea Party, Tim James, Tom Campbell, Vaughn Ward, Walt Minnick
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Tuesday, May 25th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
Since my last update, there’s been a special election in Hawaii to fill the unexpired portion of Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s term (Abercrombie resigned to focus on his gubernatorial bid). And as widely expected, a split in the Democratic vote gave the seat to Republican Charles Djou, who won 39 percent of the vote, while state senator Colleen Hanabusa got 30 percent and former congressman Ed Case took 27 percent.
It was an embarrassing setback not just for Hawaii Democrats but for those in Washington, who eventually threw up their hands and got out of the race having failed to convince either Democrat to withdraw in favor of the other. The general election in November, however, will be a different matter, since only one Democrat will be on the ballot, so Djou is probably getting no more than an extended taxpayer-financed vacation in Our Nation’s Capital.
In Connecticut, the two parties held nominating conventions for the U.S. Senate, and recently embattled Attorney General Richard Blumenthal brushed off criticism over his “misstatement” about serving in Vietnam to win the Democratic nod. On the Republican side, self-funding conservative wrestling executive Linda McMahon upset the longtime front-runner, former Rep. Rob Simmons. Just today, after initially indicating he would fight for the nomination in a primary, Simmons suspended his campaign.
Now national political attention is being focused on a batch of upcoming primaries: notably Alabama (gubernatorial primaries in both parties) on June 1 and Arkansas (the Senate runoff), California (GOP primaries for governor and Senate), Iowa (Republican gubernatorial primary), Nevada (Republican gubernatorial and Senate primaries) and South Carolina (gubernatorial primaries in both parties) on June 8.
Most of the news on these contests involves new polling data, and we’ll get to that in a moment. But aficionados of political sleaze and scandal are again being drawn to South Carolina, where front-running Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley, a Mark Sanford protégé, has been hit with allegations of an illicit affair by her alleged former lover, a political blogger who once worked for both Sanford and Haley. Haley has angrily denied the allegations, and has been backed up by prominent supporter Sarah Palin, who, like Haley, suggests the whole thing is a smear made up by Haley’s political enemies. The site that published the allegations is now indicating it has possession of verifying information in the form of emails and text messages between the alleged lovers, and is threatening to make it available to the courts (if sued), if not the public. The Columbia State’s front-page story on the furor says the allegations have plunged the gubernatorial race into “turmoil,” which seems a fair assessment.
Poll Watch
The timing of the Haley brouhaha is interesting: today a second consecutive poll (conducted before the story broke), this one from PPP, came out showing her opening up a big lead in the primary, though probably heading for a runoff (Haley’s at 39 percent, with three rivals — Attorney General Henry McMaster, U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett, and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer — bunched together in the teens).
In other polling developments, SUSA’s got a new poll out in CA, which shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina opening up sudden big leads. The last SUSA poll, just two weeks ago, had Steve Poizner closing to within the margin of error against Whitman, and Fiorina trailing Tom Campbell by 11 points. Now they have Whitman up 54-27, and Fiorina up over Campbell 46-23 (with Chuck DeVore at 14 percent). By contrast, the R2K/DKos poll released four days ago showed Campbell leading Fiorina 37-22 (with DeVore at 14 percent), and Whitman with a narrower 46-36 lead over Poizner. Will all this contradictory data swirling around, I suspect the expectations for the primary will be set once the more authoritative Field and LA Times polls come out, probably this week.
A new R2K/DKos poll of Alabama has a surprisingly close race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, with U.S. Rep. Artur Davis holding a 41-33 lead over state Agriculture Secretary Ronnie Sparks. Sparks has been getting endorsements from African-American groups recently, though Davis, who has heavily outspent Sparks, is still the favorite to win without a runoff. On the Republican side, the poll confirmed months of data showing Bradley Byrne leading a large field (though with far less than necessary to win without a runoff) with 29 percent; Judge Roy Moore running second at 23 percent; and Tim James — Moore’s longtime rival for the Christian Right vote — third at 17 percent.
On the heels of Andrew Cuomo’s official announcement of candidacy for governor of New York, Siena has a new poll showing the Democrat trouncing likely Republican nominee Rick Lazio by a 66-24 margin. The same poll also shows big leads for two other Democrats, Sens. Chuck Schumer and Kirstin Gillibrand.
And soon after Republican Dino Rossi’s long-awaited announcement that he would challenge Sen. Patty Murray, the University of Washington published a poll showing Murray leading Rossi 44-40 in what will likely be a long, tough race.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Tuesday and Friday.
Tags: Andre Bauer, Artur Davis, Bradley Byrne, Carly Fiorina, Charles Djou, Chuck DeVore, chuck schumer, Colleen Hanabusa, Connecticut, Democratic Party, Dino Rossi, Ed Case, Gresham Barrett, Hawaii, Henry McMaster, kirstin gillibrand, linda McMahon, Mark Sanford, Meg Whitman, Neil Abercrombie, Nikki Haley, Patty Murray, Republican Party, Richard Blumenthal, rick lazio, Rob Simmons, ronnie sparks, Roy Moore, Sarah Palin, Tim James, Tom Campbell
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Friday, April 30th, 2010
Ed Kilgore
Ed Kilgore is a PPI senior fellow, as well as managing editor of The Democratic Strategist, an online forum.
by Ed Kilgore
The big news this week was the much-telegraphed announcement yesterday by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist that he will abandon the Republican senatorial primary (where he was in danger of being trounced by Marco Rubio) and instead re-file as an independent candidate in that race.
Crist’s gambit raises a lot of questions, most immediately about how many of his donors will ask for their money back, and how, exactly, he will negotiate the very difficult shoals of an independent candidacy in a state famous for its partisanship. The instant GOP blowback was intense, as Jonathan Martin of Politico reported:
Immediately after he gave his speech, his campaign manager and two press aides resigned. His mail vendor and media consultant also indicated that they would not remain with him as he pursued a third-party bid.
In Washington, the very GOP senators who had anointed him as the party’s favorite last year castigated him as an untrustworthy opportunist and demanded that he return their contributions and those of other Republicans.
Crist appears determined to run an “outsider” campaign, which will be somewhat difficult for an incumbent governor and former darling of the national GOP establishment. The first post-announcement three-way polls will be very interesting.
While it was completely overshadowed by the Crist drama, the Florida senatorial race was also roiled by reports that billionaire investor Jeff Greene, who bet against the housing bubble and won big, will enter the Democratic primary against U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, who had been focused on the general election. Greene is apparently being advised by the eccentric duo of Joe Trippi and Doug Schoen.
The other trend worth watching this week was the sudden dilemma posed to Republican candidates for various offices across the country by Arizona’s new immigration law, which among other things, authorized law enforcement officers to demand proof of citizenship from anyone “reasonably suspected” of being in the country illegally. While virtually all Republicans have defended the Arizona action as an indictment of the failure of the federal government to “protect the borders,” the specific law has struck sparks, particularly among candidates in highly competitive Republican primaries.
In Nevada, for example, the front-runner in the gubernatorial race, Brian Sandoval, who happens to be both a Latino and suspected by hard-core conservatives of being a moderate squish, instantly endorsed the Arizona law. His main opponent, incumbent Jim Gibbons, who has been running as the true conservative candidate, demurred, arguing that Nevada didn’t need that sort of law because it wasn’t a border state. And a third candidate who is trying to outflank Gibbons on the right, Mike Montandon, not only endorsed the Arizona initiative but called profiling by law enforcement officers — the main concern many have had with the Arizona law — absolutely essential.
The furor over the Arizona initiative has not been confined to the West. It may, in fact, have its greatest impact on Republicans in the Deep South, where Hispanic immigration has been visible enough to upset conservatives, but has not yet created a significant voting bloc. Almost immediately after the enactment of the Arizona law, Alabama Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim James, who is struggling to overcome Judge Roy Moore as the Christian conservative candidate in that race, launched an ad attacking his own state’s practice of offering drivers’ tests in languages other than English.
Next door in Georgia, gubernatorial candidate Nathan Deal, who recently resigned from the U.S. House on the heels of an ethics investigation, publicly called for enactment of an Arizona-style immigration system in his own state. And in South Carolina, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who earlier compared subsidized school lunch beneficiaries to “stray animals,” harnessed the Arizona controversy to his own distinctive message in the gubernatorial race by suggesting that immigrants wouldn’t be coming to the Palmetto State if lazy welfare bums were willing to work.
It’s an easy guess that immigration fever will spread in highly competitive southern Republican primaries, and perhaps elsewhere. In general, cultural issues can be expected to pop up where candidates are trying to distinguish themselves in a Republican Party that’s now monolithically — even radically — conservative on economic and fiscal issues.
Poll Watch
In polling news, there were two big national surveys released this week, one by the Washington Post/ABC News, and the other by Pew. The WaPo/ABC poll had some good news for Democrats:
The public trusts Democrats more than Republicans to handle the major problems facing the country by a double-digit margin, giving Democrats a bigger lead than they held two months ago, when Congress was engaged in the long endgame over divisive health-care legislation. A majority continues to see Obama as “just about right” ideologically, despite repeated GOP efforts to define the president as outside the mainstream.
Those polled also say they trust Obama over Republicans in Congress to deal with the economy, health care and, by a large margin, financial regulatory reform. And the president continues to get positive marks on his overall job performance, with, for the first time since the fall, a majority of independents approving.
Pew (PDF), on the other hand, found Republicans drawing even with Democrats on five of six major issues (the exception being energy policy). Go figure.
Ed Kilgore’s PPI Political Memo runs every Monday and Friday.
Tags: Andre Bauer, Arizona, Brian Sandoval, Campaigns and elections, Charlie Crist, conservatives, Florida, Immigration, Jim Gibbons, Jonathan Martin, Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, Mike Montandon, Nathan Deal, Politics and politicians, Public opinion, Republican Party, Roy Moore, Senate, Tim James
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