Posts Tagged ‘ Vivek Wadhwa ’

Andy Grove and a Needed Conversation

Tuesday, July 13th, 2010
Dane Stangler



Dane Stangler is research manager at the Kauffman Foundation.

by Dane Stangler

The recent Bloomberg BusinessWeek cover story by former Intel CEO Andy Grove, “How to Make an American Job,” has stimulated no shortage of reaction in the blogosphere. From the even-handed and the thoughtful, to the politely skeptical and the sharply critical, bloggers and commentators have weighed in on Grove’s essay.

What precipitated this running debate is Grove’s apparent suggestion that, to spur job creation and innovation, the United States should instigate a national-level industrial policy which favors some companies over others. He points to successful Asian economies as potential models. The distinguishing characteristic of the favored companies would be, what Grove asserts is the real engine of job creation, the scaling process:

Equally important is what comes after that mythical moment of creation in the garage, as technology goes from prototype to mass production. This is the phase where companies scale up. They work out design details, figure out how to make things affordably, build factories, and hire people by the thousands. Scaling is hard work but necessary to make innovation matter.

Other commentators have already pointed out that Grove perhaps focuses too much on manufacturing (and specifically technology manufacturing such as semiconductors), and that he misses the critical importance of startup firms to job creation and innovation.

I agree that the long-running lament over the loss of manufacturing jobs in the United States is overdone—much of that employment reduction has come about through productivity gains rather than offshoring. The scaling process Grove celebrates is in fact partly responsible for the loss of technology manufacturing jobs. Since 2000, industry concentration in Silicon Valley has increased dramatically in sectors such as computer equipment manufacturing and semiconductor manufacturing while employment has fallen. Just last week, my colleague Tim Kane published a report on just how much startups matter to net job creation in the United States. As Tim puts it, startups aren’t everything, they’re the only thing.

Finally, Vivek Wadhwa offers what is probably the best take on Grove’s article—Vivek is hugely knowledgeable about innovation in China and India, and offers, as others have not, actual concrete suggestions for how we can reignite economic growth in the United States.

Despite the flaws in Grove’s essay,  it should not be dismissed. For one thing, he is a highly intelligent and highly successful entrepreneur who has lived through—indeed, helped shape—dramatic transformations of the U.S. economy.

Furthermore, scale companies are important to economic growth. No one can talk about the economic history of the United States without mentioning the scale companies that, at each stage of development, pioneered innovations, reduced costs and generally helped spread prosperity: Union Pacific, Standard Oil, Ford Motor, Wal-Mart, Intel, Microsoft, Google. Obviously, economic growth cannot solely be ascribed to such firms—they are only one piece of the economic ecosystem and while Grove may have overemphasized scale, he certainly was not wrong to discuss it. But the process of scaling must be contextualized: startups are essential in part because, without them, we do not even get to the scaling process. Competition helps ensure that scaling is accompanied by innovation and efficiency. Once they reach a certain level of scale, large firms depend on the acquisition of startups as a source of innovations and new jobs.

Scale firms can also be merely seen as incidents of deeper factors driving growth. After I gave a presentation on the economic contribution of high-growth firms a few months ago, an eminent economist dismissed everything by saying, “well, yes, but this is all simply explained by information technology; that’s the real story of growth.” The IT-as-the-root-of-all-prosperity argument has been popular in recent years but, as Paul Kedrosky later pointed out to me, this is a “turtles all the way down” type of argument. Behind IT is cheap energy, behind cheap energy is access to natural resources, behind natural resources … and so on. (Scale companies, in fact, could even be seen as a fertile source of knowledge for economists themselves: Thomas McCraw, inter alios, has argued that the rise of scale firms in the second half of the 1800s helped prompt the marginal revolution in economic thought.)

All of this still overlooks the most important part of Grove’s article, a point that escaped me upon first reading: “A new industry needs an effective ecosystem in which technology knowhow accumulates, experience builds on experience, and close relationships develop between supplier and customer.” The reason that the scaling process—rather than simply scale itself—is economically important is the learning-by-doing path by which it proceeds. Knowledge accumulates, innovations come and go, companies iterate back and forth—this is the messy process by which economic growth happens. If this reading is correct, Grove is claiming that the offshoring of technology manufacturing jobs threatens such learning-by-doing. In this formulation, productivity gains in manufacturing can actually undermine future cycles of learning and iterating.

The conversation Grove is trying to stimulate is worth having. It is probably too much to extrapolate technology manufacturing to the entire U.S. economy. There are certainly sectors, aside from manufacturing, in which learning-by-doing drives growth and it is not clear that those sectors have lost such capacity. Software development and certain institutions in the world of health care rely on this process. Yochai Benkler’s work can be seen as emphasizing the extent to which learning and iteration underwrites a great deal of innovation across the economy today.

But Grove’s point should be taken seriously in the sense that real barriers exist to innovation and the scaling process in many areas of the economy. Rather than seeing his article as a call for a government-driven competitiveness agenda or industrial policy, we should read it as a starting point for seeking out release valves at which small changes can be made that would release huge amounts of pent-up entrepreneurial energy. The stunted process of commercializing innovations out of universities leaps to mind as an area ripe for such analysis, as does current immigration policy. The national conversation about innovation and economic growth should be engaged in exactly this type of search.

Photo credit: jurvetson

Brain Gain: Why We Should Grant Visas to Immigrant Entrepreneurs

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010
Dane Stangler



Dane Stangler is research manager at the Kauffman Foundation.

by Dane Stangler

A recent post highlighted the importance of new and young companies to job creation in the U.S., implicitly raising an important question for policy makers: How can we increase the number of startups? Assuming it can be done, such an increase would not solve all of the economic challenges facing this country, but it would certainly help. New companies not only create millions of jobs across all sectors of the economy — they also introduce product and process innovations, boosting overall productivity.

Saying startups are important is one thing, of course; actually designing policies to increase their number is something else entirely. Before making any recommendations, for example, we need to know more about the universe of startups. Are they more prominent in some sectors than others? Does the impact of new companies differ across sectors or geographic regions? Should policy focus on encouraging more new firms, or on enhancing the growth of those already in existence? How would any such policies affect established companies, large and small?

Policymaking around entrepreneurship is evidently not clear-cut as there is still quite a bit we do not understand regarding startups. In the coming weeks we will try to explore these questions and illuminate the world of startups for policymakers. We’ll start with the lowest-hanging fruit of all, though one that may seem like poison to some in Washington: immigration.

It’s commonly accepted that the United States is a nation of immigrants, settled and populated by those fleeing persecution, seeking commercial opportunities in a new land or looking for a fresh start. We have always recognized the important contributions of immigrants to the U.S. economy, from entrepreneurs like Samuel Slater (textile mills) to Andrew Carnegie (steel) to Andy Bechtolsheim (Sun Microsystems) to the laborers and workers who built this country with their hands.

Recently, researchers have begun to paint a broader picture of the economic role of immigrant entrepreneurs. For example, Vivek Wadhwa and his research team have found that, from 1995 to 2006, fully one-quarter of new technology and engineering companies in the U.S. were founded by immigrants. In Silicon Valley, the figure was one-half. These firms constitute only a sliver of all companies, yet contribute an outstanding number of jobs and innovations to the economy.

It makes sense, then, that if we are seeking to increase the number of new companies started each year in the U.S., we might look to immigrants. It turns out that Sens. John Kerry (D-MA) and Richard Lugar (R-IN) are thinking precisely along these lines, introducing the StartUp Visa Act (PDF) in the Senate. This bill would grant a two-year visa to immigrant entrepreneurs who are able to raise $250,000 from an American investor and can create at least five jobs in two years. Without question, such a visa is a good idea and this legislation hopefully paves the way for future actions that would reduce the pecuniary threshold and focus more on job creation.

Quite naturally, however, the promotion of immigrant entrepreneurs arouses suspicion among those on the right who harbor nativist views, and those on the left who perceive progressive immigration policies as a threat to American labor. Such views take the precisely wrong perspective: immigration, as we have seen, is a core American value. Immigrant entrepreneurs, moreover, come to the U.S. to make jobs for Americans, not take them.

Further, many of those who promote immigration as a way to boost economic growth narrowly focus on “high-skilled” entrepreneurs, those who might start technology companies. Clearly, as Wadhwa’s research indicates, such companies are important to American innovation. But we exclude non-technology entrepreneurs at our peril — every new company, including those founded by immigrants, represents pursuit of the American dream. By closing our borders to immigrants in general or welcoming only those with certain skills, we leave out many who will start new firms in other industries. If not in the United States, they will go elsewhere to start their companies and create jobs.

Entrepreneurs are implicit in Emma Lazarus’ poem: “Give me your tired, your poor/Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.” Entrepreneurs start from nothing and work endlessly to build their companies, expressing their individual freedom through commerce. Why should we want to exclude them from the home of entrepreneurial capitalism?