Posts Tagged ‘ wages ’

Prices, Wages, Food and Inequality

Friday, June 4th, 2010
Scott Winship



Scott Winship is research manager of the Pew Economic Mobility Project and a recent graduate of Harvard's doctoral program in social policy. The views he expresses do not represent those of Pew.

by Scott Winship

Mike Konczal’s inequality post as a guest blogger for Ezra is getting a bit of attention in the blogosphere. Konczal jumps off of an interesting post by Jamelle Bouie to argue that contrary to those who argue that “inequality isn’t so bad,” the unhealthy nature of the cheaper food that is purchased by the poor negates the fact that the poor face a lower inflation rate. Since he suggests I (and Will Wilkinson) think that “inequality isn’t so bad,” I wanted to correct a misconception that Konczal has about the argument of economist Christian Broda that he is responding to. Broda’s actual argument really doesn’t have anything to do with how healthy the things purchased by the poor are.

Here’s Konczal:

One argument that has become popular recently is that the increase in income inequality isn’t quite as bad because both the rich and the poor have different ‘inflation’ rates — the prices at which goods increase for the rich have been increasing much faster than the prices at which goods have been increasing for the poor. So even though the poor or median person hasn’t had any wage growth, he has much more purchasing power because of this effect.

This isn’t quite the argument that has become popular recently. What fans of the Broda research argue (i.e., what Broda and his colleagues argue) is that the apparent increase in income inequality may overstate the actual increase in inequality because the poor appear to have a lower inflation rate than the rich. If true, then it’s not that “the poor or median person hasn’t had any wage growth,” it’s that they have had wage growth because of their lower inflation rate — and the wage growth has been big enough that it has kept the ratio of rich-to-poor incomes roughly constant.

Think of it this way. Broda and his colleagues find that the prices of what the poor buy (that is, “price” when the satisfaction derived, or utility, is held constant) have risen less than the prices of what the rich buy. That’s because when prices of related goods change, the poor are more likely to switch to cheaper goods, all the while maintaining their overall level of satisfaction with their purchases. If it becomes cheaper to maintain a constant level of satisfaction, then one’s wages have effectively grown. So poor consumers may switch from Green Giant frozen veggies to generics when the latter go on sale, or they might buy their frozen veggies at the chain a couple of neighborhoods over rather than the local grocery store when the latter’s prices go up. Rich consumers, on the other hand, may be relatively unlikely to stop buying Whole Foods vegetables when the plebian chain’s prices are cut. They may not switch to generics as those products become cheaper relative to those on offer at the farmer’s market.

It’s not that we should be excited about how great the generic frozen veggies bought by the poor are compared with the Whole Foods produce. It’s that we should be excited that the poor are either more willing or more able to economize to maintain a constant lifestyle than the rich are, and so inflation eats into their quality of life to a lesser extent than it does among the rich, holding in check other forces that would increase inequality.

Now, Broda’s research is based on purchases of a limited number of commodities and over a limited number of years, but if his findings extend to other goods and services and to earlier periods (which he believes they do), then the implication is that inequality between the poor and the well-off — though not necessarily the richest of the rich — has not grown. We can still worry about the quality of the food purchased by the poor and their health outcomes, but that’s a story about poverty and deprivation, not about inequality or growth in inequality.

More on Wages and the Middle Class: A Response to Rortybomb

Thursday, January 14th, 2010
Scott Winship



Scott Winship is research manager of the Pew Economic Mobility Project and a recent graduate of Harvard's doctoral program in social policy. The views he expresses do not represent those of Pew.

by Scott Winship

I will be posting soon on the living standards of the poor, but I first wanted to take some time to respond to Mike Konczal of Rortybomb. Mike argues that incomes have stagnated since 1999, which coincides with a dramatic rise in consumer borrowing. Kevin Drum picks up his post and runs with it. Let me start out by saying that I wasn’t so much objecting to Mike’s (or more specifically, Raghuram Rajan’s) hypothesis as I was objecting to general claims that wages have stagnated.

But Mike’s analysis has some problems. First, while he wants to argue that 1999 represented the start of a period of stagnation, a quick look at his chart will reveal that the significance of that year is that it is a cyclical peak year. The trend line hits local peaks at the height of the business cycle going all the way back through the late 1960s. The decline in real income from 1999 through the early 2000s isn’t any steeper than in previous downturns (it’s the recovery from the mid-2000s forward that’s weak). So it’s unclear to me why consumers became overleveraged this time but not in previous recessions.

Beyond that, Mike’s chart on household credit market debt is misleading. He’s comparing income levels in his first chart to debt changes in the second one. Conveniently, they sort of support his hypothesis. But he should be comparing levels to levels. Here’s the chart showing levels of household credit market debt:

Put the two charts together and you get this one:

If you can find a relationship there, you are more creative than I am. One more thing: “credit market debt” includes mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt. But the first two of those are secured by assets, so charting the change in debt without accounting for changes in assets is also misleading.

OK, Mike’s next objection is that the increase in income that I documented is due to households working more hours—in particular, wives. But here’s the thing—part of the reason that male compensation has “stagnated” (in quotes because I don’t believe that’s true) is due to the increase in work among women (increased supply of labor leads to lower wages). We don’t know what the counterfactual would have been had women not increased their hours.

As for “middle class woes,” foreclosures have risen dramatically, but they are a tiny percentage of mortgages (and a sizable chunk of homeowners don’t have mortgages because they’ve paid them off). The Calculated Risk post that Mike links to shows that other than Florida and Nevada (where many foreclosures are properties owned by speculators), between one and six percent of mortgages were in foreclosure as of mid-2009.

Oh, and about that “stagnation” since 1999—if you compare 1999 to 2007 (both peak income years), median household income using a comprehensive measure (that nevertheless does NOT include the value of health insurance) rose from $44,205 to $46,201 (in 2007 dollars, using the CPI-U-RS). [See Alternative Measures of Income and Poverty, Definition 14a.] Using my preferred PCE deflator, the increase is from $42,786 to $46,201—an 8 percent increase.

As for Kevin’s contrasting of per capita income growth and household income growth, see Steve Rose’s explanation of why these comparisons are apples-to-oranges.

The views expressed in this piece do not necessarily reflect those of the Progressive Policy Institute.